POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 2/8

The Palin Emails

Thanks to a public records request by NBC News, nearly 3,000 pages of emails from Sarah Palin’s tenure as governor of Alaska are now available online for your perusal.

We highlighted some of the more interesting findings last week.

Andrew Sullivan is digging in to find more.

Making the Filibuster a Campaign Issue

“Over the past week, President Obama and his senior aides have repeatedly cited Republicans’ filibuster threats as the primary reason for the lack of progress on big ticket legislative items, an early sign that Democrats will seek to use this bit of legislative arcana against the GOP in the coming midterm election,” The Fix observes.

“By making the filibuster a political issue, the White House may be hoping to turn the base’s anger at the way things are being done in Washington away from an inward focus on the party’s unwillingness to change the rules and toward Republicans for their legislative blocking.”

New York Times Will Interview Paterson

New York Gov. David Paterson will be interviewed by the New York Times tomorrow,Ben Smith reports, “as his state chatters about an as-yet unpublished retrospective on his difficult year in office.”

The Republican Ideas Already in the Health Care Bill

Ezra Klein: “At this point, I don’t think it’s well understood how many of the GOP’s central health-care policy ideas have already been included as compromises in the health-care bill. But one good way is to look at the GOP’s Solutions for America homepage, which lays out its health-care plan in some detail. It has four planks. All of them — yes, you read that right — are in the Senate health-care bill.”

The Apology

White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel finally apologizes.

Read more…

Tea Party Finds Support in Iowa

A new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll finds that 33% of Iowans “from across the political spectrum” say they support the “tea party” movement.

“The findings are the first up-or-down test of the tea party’s support in a midterm battleground state. They also shed light on a movement that could affect the campaign for Iowa’s leadoff Republican presidential caucuses next year.”

Obama Losing Independent Voters

A new Marist poll finds that for the first time since taking office, a majority of independent voters — 57% — disapprove of how President Obama is doing in his job, while just 29% approve.

Overall, 44% of American voters currently approve of Obama’s job performance, while 47% disapprove.

Sarah Palin and the Consulting Paradox

Nate Silver: “There’s something which, if you’ve ever been in the business of trying to sell consulting services, you’ve probably grown accustomed to. It’s what I call the ‘consulting paradox’. Namely, it’s the idea that the people who are most in need of help are often the least aware of it. Indeed, the range of potential clients who (i) aren’t smart enough to solve all their own problems and (ii) are smart enough to know it … is generally very narrow.”

“Sarah Palin needs help. So does almost every politician — but Palin needs it more than most. She is young. She is inexperienced. She’s not especially well connected. She’s strong-willed and a little impulsive. And call me a hater, but the woman just ain’t that bright.”

In Search of Self-Governance

New from pollster Scott Rasmussen: In Search of Self-Governance.

“Americans don’t want to be governed from the left, the right or the center. They want to govern themselves. The American desire for – and attachment to – self-governance runs deep. It is one of our nation’s cherished core values and an important part of our cultural DNA. And right now, it needs to be saved.”

Quote of the Day

“Politics is a comparative exercise. This isn’t just a referendum on Democrats or our party. It’s a choice.”

– David Plouffe, in an interview with the Washington Post, on the Democratic party’s strategy for the midterm elections.

Close Senate Race in Ohio

In Ohio’s U.S. Senate race, a new Rasmussen Reports survey finds Rob Portman (R) ahead of Lee Fisher (D), 43% to 39%, and in front of Jennifer Brunner (D), 42% to 38%.

Tarkanian Mistakes Reagan and… Reid?

The Hill finds a “rather bizarre” video clip of Nevada Senate candidate Danny Tarkanian (R) “stumbling over his words as he apparently tries to talk about Reagan’s ‘11th Commandment’ — thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican.”

Tarkanian refers to the famous slogan as the “11th Amendment” and repeatedly attributes it to Reid, not Reagan.

Read more…
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Paterson Discussed Possible Resignation

New York Gov. David Paterson (D) “has met privately with key democratic leaders about his reelection plans,” WENY-TV reports.

A democrat “close to the situation” says the meetings “included discussions about whether Paterson would resign or announce he will not run.”

This comes as rumors swirl about a “bombshell scandal” involving the governor.

Jenny Sanford Not Running for Office

In an interview with the Columbia State, Jenny Sanford insists her new book, Staying True, “is not a setup for her own run for political office as some have speculated.”

Said Sanford: “You’ve read the book. Does that sound like someone who wants to run for office? I’ve wanted for us (Mark Sanford and me) to get out of politics for years. I was always hopeful that once we got out of the political world he would settle into a better routine with respect to me and with respect to the marriage.”

Landslide Harry

Mark Warren, co-author of Sen. Harry Reid’s The Good Fight, talks to the Las Vegas Sun about the Nevada senator’s low poll numbers and prospects for re-election.

“They don’t call him Landslide Harry for nothing. It’s pretty simple, actually. Graced with the retail political skills of your average monk, Harry Reid has always had to work twice as hard for everything he’s ever achieved. Ever. You don’t climb out of a hole in the ground in Searchlight, Nevada, to become one of the most powerful men in the world by being outworked…”

“In most ways, he is the least likely politician I’ve ever met. He is not gregarious. Small talk doesn’t come easy for him. He’d rather be alone than in groups… He and the camera maintain an uneasy relationship. Sometimes in pictures, he looks pissed off, or like he’s focused on some distant landscape of the mind. He is impervious to drama, not given to acting out or gaudy shows of emotion. Or, you know, any emotion.”

Obama’s Fearsome Foursome

The Financial Times takes an interesting look at President Obama’s inner circle of advisers — Rahm Emanuel, David Axelrod, Valerie Jarrett and Robert Gibbs — noting that the president “rarely holds a meeting, including on national security, without some or all of them present.”

Though some unnamed sources want a shake up in the White House team, it’s highly unlikely to happen.

David Gergen: “There is an old joke. How many psychiatrists does it take to change a lightbulb? Only one. But the lightbulb must want to change. I don’t think President Obama wants to make any changes.”

Brennan Briefed GOP Leaders on Christmas

White House counterterrorism chief John Brennan revealed on Meet the Press that he briefed four Republican congressional leaders on Christmas night about the arrest of the “underwear bomber” and the handling of the case.

Said Brennan: “None of those individuals raised any concerns with me, at that point. They didn’t say, ‘Is he going into military custody? Is he going to be Mirandized?’ They were very appreciative of the information. We told them we’d keep them informed. And that’s what we did.”

The disclosure undermines GOP complaints about the reading of Miranda rights to the Nigerian suspect arrested for the attempted bombing.

POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 2/2

Passing Health Care Reform Will Not Hurt Democrats

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Democratic candidates this fall “will fare about the same whether health care passes or not.”

“The GOP leads 43-40 on the generic Congressional ballot. When you ask people how they’ll vote if the Democrats don’t pass their health care plan the GOP leads 43-38. That’s because the level of support from Democratic voters for their own party drops from 80% to 76% if there is no health care bill. The GOP level of support remains unchanged at this point whether it passes or not.”

Bottom line: “The political damage for Democrats has been done. It doesn’t matter whether it actually passes- it has had the effect of getting Republican voters really fired up and along with the economy continuing to struggle it has turned independents toward the GOP as well. Those voters aren’t going to come back at this point because health care doesn’t pass. Would Democrats be in a better position right now if they hadn’t even touched the issue? Probably. But what’s the point of being in power if you don’t deal with things like health care?”

Most Republicans Think Obama is a Socialist

A new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of Republicans finds that 63% believe that President Obama is a socialist, compared to 21% who say he is not and 16% that are not sure.

The survey also found that 53% believe that Sarah Palin is more qualified to be president than Obama, with 14% who believe Obama is more qualified and 33% who said they were not sure.

Boozman Way Ahead of Lincoln in Arkansas

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Arkansas finds Rep. John Boozman (R) leading Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) by a shockingly wide margin, 56% to 33%.

“Lincoln’s approval rating has sunk to just 27%, with 62% of voters in the state disapproving of her. She’s at a middling 51% even within her own party and just 17% of independents and 9% of Republicans are happy with how she’s doing.”

Palin Wants Rahm Fired

In a Facebook post, Sarah Palin calls on President Obama to fire Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel for reportedly describing the strategy of Senate liberals as “f@#$%g retarded.”

“Yes, Rahm is known for his caustic, crude references about those with whom he disagrees, but his recent tirade against participants in a strategy session was such a strong slap in many American faces that our president is doing himself a disservice by seeming to condone Rahm’s recent sick and offensive tactic.”

Meanwhile, an interesting new poll of Republicans finds that a majority think Palin is more qualified than Barack Obama to be president.

Durbin, Schumer Lay Groundwork for a Fight

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) — the second- and third-ranking Senate Democratic leaders — “are doling out huge sums of cash, laying the groundwork for a leadership race should Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) ose reelection,” reports The Hill.

“The leaders gave money to newcomers and candidates facing tough races. But they also contributed to those whose reelection prospects seem solid, such as Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), who last won in liberal Vermont with 71% of the vote. While Leahy probably does not need the money for reelection, Durbin and Schumer may feel they need to contribute to his campaign to cement his loyalty.”

Negative Ad of the Year?

I suspect we’ll see many more negative political ads this year, but this one in the Illinois gubernatorial race currently leads as the toughest.

Read more…

White House Seeks to Engage Republicans

White House political adviser David Axelrod tells Mike Allen the White House is looking for more opportunities to involve Republicans in the tough choices necessary in governing, like President Obama did last Friday taking questions at the House Republican retreat.

Said Axelrod: “You can’t have a situation where we’re governing and they’re simply running an election campaign. Everybody’s got to pick up an oar here and row, if we’re going to get to where we need to go. Those guys were kind of free riders in the first year. The boat’s got a lot of freight.”

Also interesting: “There was not one minute of prep here — I guarantee it. He left here for Baltimore on the helicopter, and we didn’t have any discussion about Q-and-A. It was thoroughly spontaneous, at least from our end.”

Democrats Have Big Cash Advantage

“Democratic Party committees entered an off-year election with more money in the bank than their Republican counterparts for the first time in at least 18 years, giving the party a financial boost as it tries to stave off a surge by the opposition,”Bloomberg reports.

Colbert Takes on Ford

Harold Ford Jr. (D) took his U.S. Senate exploratory bid to the Colbert Report last night.

After watching the video clip, it’s still unclear why he thought that was a good idea.

Read more…

Reid Says He’s Staying in Race

In an interview with Jon Ralston, Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) insisted he was running for re-election, despite some very bad polling data in recent months.

Said Reid: “I’m running. I have the best campaign organization ever set up in the state of Nevada. I am very comfortable where I am at this time.”

Special House Primary in Florida

There’s a special primary in Florida’s 19th congressional district today to pick Democratic and Republican nominees hoping to succeed former Rep. Robert Wexler (D-FL), who resigned in midterm.

Voters Head to the Polls in Illinois

Nine months ahead of the general election, Illinois voters head to the polls today to pick their party’s candidates for governor, U.S. Senate and various House races across the state.

CQ Politics notes it’s the earliest congressional primary in history — beating by three days the record Illinois established in 2008 when the date was moved up to help then Sen. Barack Obama in the presidential primary.

The weather forecast shows snow in Chicago and clear skies downstate.

The polls open are open from 6 am to 7 pm CT.

Cox Opens Up Lead Over Hoekstra

A new EPIC-MRA poll in Michigan shows Attorney General Mike Cox (R) opening up a 7 point lead on Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) in the race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, 32% to 25%.

In head-to-head matchups, both Cox and Hoekstra defeat Denise Ilitch (D), the leading Democrat tested even though she is not officially in the race.

“The poll comes after Lt. Gov. John Cherry’s (D) withdrawal from the Democratic race earlier this month. Cherry had led Democrats, but also fared poorly against Republicans in polls and was having trouble raising money.”

Moran Widens Lead Over Tiahrt

A new SurveyUSA poll in Kansas finds Jerry Moran (R) leading Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) in the Republican U.S. Senate race, 40% to 33%.

Nelson Paid Off Again?

Americablog discovers the DNC sent nearly $500,000 to the Nebraska Democratic Committee to run advertisements defending Sen. Ben Nelson’s (D-NE) vote for health care reform.

“Nelson announced his support for the much-weakened Senate health care bill on December 19, 2009. He cast his vote for final passage on December 24, 2009. The DNC transferred money to the Nebraska party on December 28, 2009. You do the math.”

Another Bad Poll Coming for Lincoln

Tom Jensen previews tomorrow’s Public Policy Polling survey in Arkansas and notes Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) doesn’t do very well in a match up against Rep. John Boozman (R-AR).

“Because of Lincoln’s increasingly precarious position we tested a bunch of Democratic alternatives to her as well. They do better, but for the most part not by much. Lincoln certainly has a lot of personal blame for the situation she finds herself in, but it would be tough for any Democrat to win a Senate race in Arkansas this year.”

Palin Endorses Paul in Kentucky

Sarah Palin jumped into the Republican U.S. Senate primary in Kentucky by endorsing Rand Paul (R) over Trey Grayson (R).

In a press release, Paul trumpeted her endorsement and financial support calling Palin “a giant in American politics.”

A Very Productive Congress

Norm Ornstein argues that despite poor approval rates “this Democratic Congress is on a path to become one of the most productive since the Great Society 89th Congress in 1965-66, and Obama already has the most legislative success of any modern president — and that includes Ronald Reagan and Lyndon Johnson. The deep dysfunction of our politics may have produced public disdain, but it has also delivered record accomplishment.”

Schumer’s Approval Plunges in New York

A new Marist Poll in New York finds Sen. Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) “once rock solid approval rating has taken a slide. For the first time in nearly nine years, Schumer’s approval rating has fallen below 50%.”

Just 47% of registered voters statewide report Schumer is doing either an excellent or good job in office, while 31% rate the job he is doing as fair and 17% view him as performing poorly.

Rubio Now Holds Double-Digit Lead Over Crist

A new Rasmussen Reports survey in Florida finds Marco Rubio (R) has now jumped to a 12-point lead over Gov. Charlie Crist (R) in Florida’s Republican primary for the U.S. Senate, 49% to 37%.

Update: The Fix reports a new survey by Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio — “for a group not involved in the Senate contest” — shows Rubio leading Crist, 44% to 30%

POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 2/1

Bonus Quote of the Day

“Always the thought of my wife standing over me having unloaded a 15-round clip into me and asking, ‘Does somebody have more ammo?’”

– Mike Huckabee, in an interview with the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, on what goes through his mind when women try to get his attention.

“Worse than Eliot Spitzer”

South Carolina First Lady Jenny Sanford writes in her new book, Staying True, that she decided to tell her sons about their father’s affair with an Argentinian woman “before his cheating turned into a national news story last summer,” the New York Daily News reports.

Said 12 year old Bolton Sanford: “It’s worse than Eliot Spitzer!”

Among the other revelations in the book, Sanford says her husband kept “pestering” her for permission to see his mistress even after she found their lovelorn messages.

Young’s Revenge

Tina Brown reviews The Politician for the Daily Beast.

“Andrew Young’s account of his decade as John Edwards’s body man, beard, and shit-eating courtier is a mesmerizing insight not only into the rotten nature of his hero but the corruption of the culture that allowed a man as devoid of authenticity as John Edwards to flourish for so long, even to the point of getting a decent shot at the White House… This is not a political memoir. It’s a morality tale with the chill of Hitchcock. It’ll make a hell of a movie, but I’m not sure I can bear to see it.”

Meanwhile, Young told ABC News that he’s been offered a “gigantic” amount of money to sell the alleged Edwards sex tape that he now holds in a safe deposit box.

The Midterm Election Season Begins

If you check our primary calendar, you’ll find that the official start to the midterm election season begins tomorrow with primaries in Illinois.

Republicans believe they have a chance to win both the governor’s race and U.S. Senate race this fall, seats currently held by Democrats.

As Lynn Sweet notes, Illinois Democrats are “splintered and frazzled” in the wake of the impeachment of former Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D), who will be tried this summer on federal public corruption charges.

The most hotly-contested primary race is for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination as Gov. Pat Quinn (D) and Comptroller Dan Hynes (D) fight it out in increasingly harsh terms. The Democratic race for the U.S. Senate nomination is also tightening with David Hoffman (D) closing on Alexi Giannoulias (D).

Meanwhile, the New York Times notes Republicans also hope to take back the seat once held by former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL). One of the candidates running for the GOP nomination is Hastert’s son, Ethan.

Quote of the Day

“If I hadn’t done that… I never would have been sitting here with you.”

– Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R-MA), in an interview on ABC News’ This Week, on his nude photo shoot when he was in college.

Steele Rules Out Presidential Bid

RNC Chairman Michael Steele ruled out a presidential bid in 2012, ABC Newsreports.

Said Steele: “In all honest-to-good seriousness, that is such silly Washington talk. It’s just not even on my mind.”

When pressed why he didn’t rule it out completely, Steele insisted, “I just did. I don’t know how many different ways I can do that. How many different ways can you spell ‘no’?”

Why It’s So Hard to Cut Unemployment

Though the economy grew at a 5.7% annualized rate last quarter, the AP reports that economic growth “would have to equal 5% for all of 2010 just to lower the average jobless rate for the year by 1 percentage point.”

“And economists don’t think that’s possible.”

“Most analysts say economic activity will slow to 2.5% or 3% growth for the current quarter as the benefits fade from government stimulus efforts and from companies drawing down less of their stockpiles. That’s why the Federal Reserve and outside economists think it will take until around the middle of the decade to lower the double-digit jobless rate to a more normal 5 or 6%.”

National Debt Projected to Soar

President Obama’s budget outlook adds another $5.08 trillion to the national debt over the next five years, reports Politico.

“That’s $1.32 trillion or 35% more than the White House predicted 12 months ago; about two-thirds of this deterioration can be traced directly back to lower revenues and the higher cost of the wars.”

Furthermore, as the Wall Street Journal reports, “to get the deficit down by the middle of the decade, Mr. Obama will be relying on some cuts that have previously been proposed without success, on cooperation from a wary Congress and on a yet-to-be set up debt commission to suggest politically difficult choices.”

Goldman CEO to Take $100 Million Bonus

Goldman Sachs “could be about to pay its chief executive a bumper bonus of up to $100 million in defiance of moves by President Obama to take action against such payouts,” the Times of London reports.

The world’s richest bank “is becoming the focus of an increasingly acrimonious political and financial showdown” over the payment of bonuses.

Last week, Obama described bonuses paid out by some banks as “the height of irresponsibility” and “shameful.”

Defining Leadership Down

“What does strong Senate leadership look like?,” Frank Rich asks. “That would be L.B.J. in the pre-Kennedy era. Operating with the narrowest of majorities and under an opposition president, he was able to transform a sleepy, seniority-hobbled, regionally polarized debating society into an often-progressive legislative factory.”

“As Robert Caro tells the story in his book Master of the Senate, this Senate leader had determination, ‘a gift for grand strategy,’ and a sixth sense for grabbing opportunities for action before they vanished for good. He could recognize ‘the key that might suddenly unlock votes that had seemed locked forever away’ and turn it quickly. The horse trading with recalcitrant senators was often crude and cynical, but the job got done. L.B.J. knew how to reward — and how to punish.”

“We keep hearing that they just don’t make legislative giants like that anymore. In truth, the long drought has led us to forget what they look like and to define senatorial leadership down.”

The Shaming of John Edwards

David Zurawik notes ABC News “attracted a large audience Friday night of 8.1 million viewers for its hourlong interview/report with Andrew Young, the former Edwards aide whose new book, The Politician, chronicles the one-time presidential candidate’s adultery while his wife was battling cancer…”

“The network has been out front on this story, and it has more on the way with interviews and reports about Edwards, his affair and his love child with a former campaign videographer scheduled for every day of the coming week on Good Morning America. And by the intense reaction of readers at this blog and elsewhere on the Internet, I am starting to believe that ABC News is playing a major role in something important: a public shaming of Edwards. And that is news, because it has seemed, at least since Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky, that our culture has lost touch with the concept of public shame.”

Democrats Had a Deal on Health Care Reform

Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) “said negotiators from the White House, Senate and House reached a final deal on health care reform days before Scott Brown’s victory in Massachusetts,” according to The Hill.

“The latest revelation shows how agonizingly close Democrats came to passing a final health care bill in time for President Obama’s State of the Union address.”

Kevin Drum: “The bad news: this means that if Democrats had taken this stuff even slightly more seriously, healthcare reform would already be a done deal. Idiots. The good news: if negotiations really were complete, it should mean that creating a reconciliation deal to accompany passage of the existing Senate bill ought to be fairly easy. A few parts would probably have to be jettisoned since they wouldn’t be allowed under reconciliation rules, but that’s life. The vast bulk of the compromise would stay in place and just needs to be turned into legislative language.”

Boxer Supported by Challenger’s Former Company

The Sacramento Bee reports that Hewlett-Packard’s political action committee has given the maximum amount to Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) but hasn’t contributed toward its own former CEO, Carly Fiorina (R), campaign finance reports show.

Categorizing the 2008 Presidential Race

A Newark Star Ledger review of Game Change notes this “is not a look at big ideas or political theologies, but at categories: who is the sleaziest (John Edwards, a shoo-in); the most air-headed and diva-like (Sarah Palin, again a shoo-in); the gabbiest and most gaffe-prone (Joe Biden, by at least 1,000 words); the orneriest (Bill Clinton, especially during Bubba mode in South Carolina); the most tempestuous and profane (John McCain, cursed like a sailor); the most aggrieved (Hillary Clinton, with some justification); the schizo wife (Elizabeth Edwards, saintly on the outside/beastly with John); the resurrected wife (Michelle Obama, a winner after early stumbling); and the coolest (Barack Obama, from pillar to post).”

Is Harry Reid Done?

Jon Ralston: “The question must be asked (again) because of the blizzard of developments in the contest, both on Reid’s side and for his potential foes. Before delving into this, though, let’s look at the calendar — 275 days until the election. Much can happen. Reid may make another inflammatory remark (odds: overwhelming in favor) and the Republicans may slice and dice each other until a hemorrhaging, bankrupt nominee is chosen (odds: equally overwhelming).”

“More than one commentator has pointed out as Obama presidency obits are being written that Ronald Reagan was entombed at this point, too. So, too, with Reid, who doesn’t have as long as the president to get well and had substantially lower numbers.”

POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 1/31

People Can Tell Your Politics From Your Face

Scientific American reports on a new study in which subjects “were able to accurately identify candidates from the 2004 and 2006 U.S. Senate elections as either Democrats or Republicans based on black-and-white photos of their faces. And subjects were even able to correctly identify college students as belonging to Democratic or Republican clubs based on their yearbook photos.”

Edwards Sex Tape in Safe Deposit Box

“Andrew Young, the ex-aide to embattled two-time former Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards, says he has an alleged sex tape depicting the former senator and his then-mistress Rielle Hunter – and that the tape is in a safe-deposit box,” reports People.

Said Young: “We were offered millions for that stupid tape.”

Hunter obtained a court order to have the tape returned. The Smoking Gun has Hunter’s must-read affidavit.

Obama on Moving Right

At the Georgetown-Duke basketball game this afternoon, President Obama visited with CBS announcer Verne Lundquist who showed footage of the president playing basketball, NBC News reports.

Lundquist: “Mr. President, you’re a left-hander, do you have any trouble going to your right?”

Obama: “I can go to my right now and then. I went to the House Republican caucus the other day. But there’s no doubt I have a stronger left hand.”

Just a Statistical Recovery

White House economic adviser Larry Summers told the World Economic Forum the United States was experiencing a “statistical recovery and a human recession,” theWall Street Journal reports.

He noted that one in five American men aged 25 to 54 are unemployed.

Republicans Dismiss “Purity Resolution”

“The RNC avoided a potentially embarrassing resolution that would have given the party an ability to impose sanctions on candidates who do not follow key elements of the GOP platform, a move that would have shone a spotlight on some of the party’s best recruits,” according to The Hotline.

“GOPers meeting in Honolulu this week unanimously said the party is in good shape to make big electoral gains this year, but many worried that the proposed resolution could highlight differences between conservatives and several more moderate contenders.”

Is Health Care Reform Dead?

While President Obama insists he wants to move forward with health care reform, comments by chief of staff Rahm Emanuel in the New York Times about pushing it back makes some liberals think he’s willing to let it die.

Jonathan Cohn: “Was this a trial balloon? It’s impossible to know. Emanuel’s qualms about strategic over-reach on health care are among Washington’s worst kept secrets. It’s always possible he was freelancing. But it’s hard to imagine that, in a sit-down interview like this, Emanuel would toss out an idea like this without at least implicit approval from above.”

Kevin Drum: “Given the normal pace of congressional action — including the usual Republican obstruction — this would mean no action on healthcare for at least a month or two. Maybe more like three or four. Or maybe never. New pronouncements seem to come almost hourly on this stuff, so I’ll wait for a few other folks to chime in before coming to any conclusions. But if healthcare is now domestic priority #4, it might as well be domestic priority #100. It might not quite be dead, but no matter what Obama said in his State of the Union address, the grim reaper is starting to hover uncomfortably close by.”

Ezra Klein: “The timetable Emanuel is laying out makes little sense. The jobs bill will take some time. Financial regulation will take much longer. Let’s be conservative and give all this four months. Is Emanuel really suggesting that he expects Congress to return to health-care reform in the summer before the election? Forgetting whether there’s political will at that point, there’s no personnel: Everyone is home campaigning.”

Jonathan Chait: “Either Obama doesn’t know what he wants to do, and his deputies are spreading conflicting stories in order to see what takes, in which case he needs to make up his mind pronto. Or else he wants to do what he says he wants to do, but his chief of staff is out there subverting his agenda and making Congress doubt his seriousness, in which case Obama needs to shut up Emanuel or fire him.”

POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 1/29

Obama’s Question Time

President Obama answered questions from House Republicans at their retreat this afternoon. It’s the closest thing to having “question time” like they do in the British parliament.

It was the most compelling political television I’ve seen in a long, long time. It should be required.

As Politico notes, one of the more interesting exchanges was when Obama said Republicans portrayed health care reform as a “Bolshevik plot” — even when he knew they supported many parts of the bill.

Said Obama: “If the way these issues are being presented by the Republicans is that this is some wild-eyed plot to impose huge government in our lives… then you guys don’t have a lot of room to negotiate with me.”

The New York Times reports such sessions “are typically closed and Republicans said they initially assumed the White House would want to continue that practice. But after an exchange with the White House, Republicans decided to allow press coverage rather than be portrayed as trying to keep the meeting behind closed doors.”

If you missed it, I’ll try to get a video clip up soon.

Brown on Romney

We noted that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) was all but absent from the campaign trail as Scott Brown (R) was on the verge of an incredible upset in Massachusetts.

In an interview with the Boston Globe, Brown made clear he noticed.

Said Brown: “He’s changed, he’s changed…. It’s kind of, and once again it’s my opinion but he’s really a different guy than I knew when he was here, and I certainly appreciate everything he did for me. And it wasn’t a lot, he was just there as the initial — you know, ‘here’s a check, go get em!’”

Paulson claims Unemployment Could Have Hit 25%

“If the federal government had not bailed out Wall Street banks, unemployment could have skyrocketed to 25 percent,” former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in an interview with CBS News.

Said Paulson: “I believe that if the system collapsed, we easily could’ve seen unemployment of 25 percent. I think we came very, very close.”

Hunter Demands Return of Video

Rielle Hunter has obtained a court order demanding former John Edwards aide Andrew Young “turn over videotapes and photos Hunter says belong to her,” CBS News reports.

Young’s tell-all book, The Politician, “makes the explosive claim that Young found a sex tape made by Hunter and Edwards just months before the January 2008 Iowa caucus.”

Buyer Will Not Run Again

Rep. Steve Buyer (R-IN) will announce he will not seek reelection, WISH-TV reports.

For those keeping score, that’s 15 GOP retirements as compared to 12 on the Democratic side.

The Fix: “Of the 15 Republican retirements, just two of the seats have a Partisan Voting Index score that favors Democrats… Contrast that with the fact that six of the 12 Democratic open seats have a PVI score that favors Republicans and you see that where retirements come from is more important than simply the raw numbers of those leaving.”

Palin Will Not Skip Tea Party Convention

Despite cancellations of other prominent conservatives, Sarah Palin told Fox News she would be a speaker at next week’s Tea Party Convention.

Said Palin: “Oh, you betcha I’m going to be there. I’m going to speak there because there are people traveling from many miles away to hear what that tea party movement is all about and what that message is that should be received by our politicians in Washington. I’m honored to get to be there.”

As for the criticisms that the event seeks to turn a profit, Plain noted, “I won’t personally gain from being there. The speaker’s fee will go right back into the cause.”

Economy Grows Faster Than Expected

The Wall Street Journal reports the U.S. economy “surged at the end of 2009, a bigger-than-expected gain driven more by slower inventory liquidation than by consumer spending. Gross domestic product rose a seasonally adjusted 5.7% annual rate October through December.”

Nothing would change the political landscape more this year than a growing economy. It’s the big wild card for the midterm elections.

Quote of the Day

“In 1994, nobody had any memory of Republicans in power. Now they do, and it wasn’t pretty. And so we have something to overcome that we really didn’t in 1994.”

POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 1/28

Kennedy Has Some Regrets

Former Rep. Joseph Kennedy (D-MA) told the Boston Globe that his decision not to run for the U.S. Senate seat his uncle held for almost five decades “wasn’t the greatest decision I ever made in my life.”

However, he finished by saying “he is no longer interested in running for office.”

Giannoulias Leads in Illinois Primary

A new Rasmussen Reports survey of likely Illinois Democratic primary voters finds Alexi Giannoulias (D) leading with 31%, followed by David Hoffman (D) at 23% and Cheryle Jackson at 13%.

The primary is on Tuesday.

Kerry Expresses Sorrow for Edwards Scandal

A source close to Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) tells ABC News that the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee “has reacted with sorrow to the scandalous personal behavior of his former running mate, former Sen. John Edwards (D-NC).”

Kerry said privately, “This isn’t the person I campaigned with back then.”

In July 2004, Kerry announced that Edwards would be his vice presidential running mate, saying, “I have chosen a man who understands and defends the values of America…a man whose life has prepared him for leadership and whose character brings him to exercise it.”

Literary Quote of the Day

“It’s funny. All you have to do is say something nobody understands and they’ll do practically anything you want them to.”

– Holden Caulfield in The Catcher in the Rye, in memory of J.D. Salinger, who died today. The New York Times has a really good obituary.

Bachmann Pulls Out of Tea Party Convention

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) “has become the latest high-profile conservative to bag the rapidly unraveling Tea Party Convention in Nashville next week,” theMinneapolis Star Tribune reports.

“Bachmann’s office cited the same concerns that other Tea Party activists have voiced about the first-of-its-kind national gathering: namely, the for-profit model of organizer Judson Phillips, a self-described ’small town lawyer’ with a history of financial problems.”

Mother Jones: “Will Sarah Palin’s Tea Party dinner be a bust?”

Quote of the Day

“You go through the gate. If the gate’s closed, you go over the fence. If the fence is too high, we’ll pole vault in. If that doesn’t work, we’ll parachute in. But we’re going to get health care reform passed for the American people.”

– House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, quoted by the Plum Line.

Jindal May Scrap Lt. Governor Position

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) is “leaning strongly” toward proposing a constitutional amendment that would scrap the job of lieutenant governor, the Baton Rouge Advocate reports.

Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu (D) is running for mayor of New Orleans. The behind-the-scenes political jockeying over who would succeed Landrieu, should he win, has been described as intense.”

RNC Heads to Hawaii

“Republicans delight in depicting President Obama as hopelessly out of touch with average Americans, but the decision by the Republican National Committee to hold its winter meeting at a tropical resort is turning the accusation on its head,” Politico reports.

“Yet at a moment when millions are out of work and millions more struggling to get by, the party’s governing board will plot its comeback on the island of Oahu, sipping drinks poolside, catching rays on the beach that abuts the villa and raising questions about whether they’re as politically tone-deaf as they accuse the president of being.”

Giannoulias Tops Kirk in Illinois

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Illinois finds Alexi Giannoulias (D) leading Rep. Mark Kirk (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 42% to 34%.

However, Kirk leads the other two candidates, topping Cheryle Jackson, 38% to 36%, and edging David Hoffman, 37% to 36%.

The primary to choose the candidates is next week.

Battle of the Pollsters

After Gary Langer of the ABC News polling unit rips into Public Policy Polling’s survey methods, Tom Jensen fires back noting that organizations like Rasmussen and PPP “that are getting more and more public attention and showing themselves to be as accurate or better than traditional pollsters are a serious threat to the folks who used to have the marketplace to themselves…”

“One of the most amusing things Langer and others in his cohort claim is that polls should not be judged by their accuracy — i.e. PPP, Survey USA, and Rasmussen are bad no matter how good their polls are at nailing election outcomes because he doesn’t like the methodology. That attitude may still hold water in the small self appointed fraternity of elitist pollsters, but in our results oriented society most consumers of polls will continue to turn more and more toward organizations that have proven track records of accuracy.”

Update: Scott Rasmussen also weighs in on Langer’s complaints, noting “It’s new media versus old media.”

Whitman on the McCain Campaign

Meg Whitman, now running for governor in California, writes about Sen. John McCain’s presidential campaign in her new book, reports Politico.

From The Power of Many: “When you have managed a big organization and thousands of people, you take for granted management basics such as respecting lines of authority and decision making. The lines of authority in the McCain campaign were constantly crossing, and there was much misfiring and battling for his attention.”

Whitman also claims credit for the “Country First” slogan McCain used at the Republican convention.

Haitian Americans Approve of U.S. Response

A New America Media/Bendixen & Amandi poll of Haitians living in America found 63% disapprove of how the Haitian government has responded to the earthquake.

“The unhappiness runs so deep that a majority of Haitian Americans support the United Nations and the international community taking over Haiti’s day-to-day operations — at least until Haiti recovers from the catastrophe.”

Interestingly, 96% approve of the U.S. government’s response, slightly higher than the 88% approval of the U.N. response.

Spitzer on Love and Redemption

In an interesting interview, former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer is asked about his thoughts on love and redemption. I don’t get the sense in watching it that he’ll attempt to make a political comeback this year.

Read more…

Party Over for Crist?

Jonathan Chait looks at the recent polls in the Florida GOP Senate primary battle between Gov. Charlie Crist (R) and Marco Rubio (R) and concludes Crist has just two options.

“First, he can bow out of the primary, campaign energetically for Rubio in November, and hope the party moves to the center far enough for him to run again at some future date. Second, he can make the case that the party has gotten too extreme for him — a legitimate case, as Crist is genuinely moderate on most of the key issues — and run for Senate as an independent or as a Democrat. Neither option is particularly easy, though the second seems easier than the first.”

The Palm Beach Post notes Crist seemed to rule out running as an independent yesterday, but switching parties could still be an option. Perhaps that’s why Crist will meet with with President Obama today in Florida.

The St. Petersburg Times notes that state law would require Crist to switch parties by April 30.

Thompson Edges Feingold in Senate Match Up

A new Rasmussen Reports survey of likely Wisconsin voters finds Tommy Thompson (R) edging Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), 47% to 43%, in a possible U.S. Senate match-up.

However, Thompson has not indicated whether he would challenge Feingold.

Obama’s Speech Went Over Well

Two instant polls conducted after President Obama’s State of the Union address found the reaction was overwhelmingly positive.

CNN found 48% of viewers thought it was very positive, 30% somewhat positive and 21% negative.

CBS News found that 83% of those who watched approved of the president’s proposals, but that just 42% of speech watchers think he will be able to accomplish them.

Campbell, Whitman Make Close Races in California

A new PPIC Poll in California shows Tom Campbell (R) has emerged as the early leader in the Republican U.S. Senate race. Campbell leads among likely voters in the GOP primary with 27%, while 16% support Carly Fiorina (R) and 8% favor Chuck DeVore.

In a general election matchup, Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) barely leads Campbell in a close contest, 45% to 41%.

In the governor’s race, Meg Whitman (R) now leads Steve Poizner (R) in a Republican primary, 41% to 11%.

In general election match ups, Jerry Brown (D) leads Whitman, 41% to 36%, with 23% undecided.

POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 1/27

Obama Will Reaffirm Committment to Reform

President Obama will “reiterate his commitment to a comprehensive overhaul of the nation’s health care system” in his State of the Union address tonight, the New York Times reports.

The “thrust of his message would be that he remains as resolute and committed to revamping the health care system as he was when he gave a speech to a joint session of Congress in early September.”

Andrew Sullivan: “I have one simple test: if the health bill dies from neglect and irresolution, Obama is no leader.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

“Yeah, yeah. No, it’s possible. A good old-fashioned New England moderate Republican.”

– Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) when asked if he could see himself being a Republican.

One Term Enough for Clinton

In an interview with Tavis Smiley, Hillary Clinton suggests she is unlikely to serve a second term as Secretary of State:

SMILEY: Finally, there’s already speculation about whether or not Secretary Clinton is going to do this for the full first time, and whether or not she has any interest if asked to stay on to do it for eight years? You see how tough the job is, can you imagine yourself doing all four years and, if asked, doing it for another four years?

CLINTON: No, I really can’t. I mean, it is just…

SMILEY: No to what? All four or eight?

CLINTON: The whole, the whole eight, I mean, that that would be very challenging. But I, you know, I don’t wanna make any predictions sitting here, I’m honored to serve, I serve at the pleasure of the President, but it’s a, it’s a 24/7 job, and I think at some point, I will be very happy to pass it on to someone else.

When asked about another shot at the Presidency, Clinton responded: “Absolutely not interested.”

Obama Girl Loses Her Crush

You know President Obama’s political fortunes have faded when even the Obama Girl is losing patience.

New York Post: “Amber Lee Ettinger — the buxom sensation who lip-synched about her love for then-candidate Barack Obama — said she wishes he spent his first year in office more fo cused on fixing the abysmal economy.”

Read more…

Palin Says It’s Not Romney’s Turn

In a radio interview yesterday, Sarah Palin responded to the observation by some in the Republican party that it was “Mitt Romney’s turn to be the next Republican nominee for President.”

Said Palin: “Well, I don’t think it’s anybody’s turn ever. We’ve got to really, really work hard to build up that trust in the people for the people to elect you in a primary and general. But Romney’s a great guy.”

Coons Likely to Face Castle in Delaware

Within hours of Beau Biden taking himself out of Delaware’s U.S. Senate race, theWilmington News-Journal reports Chris Coons (D) “started fielding calls from party luminaries, including Vice President Joe Biden and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, coaxing him to enter the race” against Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE).

It’s appears to be working.

Said Coons: “I’m leaning toward running. This all emerged very quickly.”

Staking Out Seats for the State of the Union

Twelve hours before President Obama gives his State of the Union address,Congress.org notes that Rep. Eliot Engel (D-NY) will already be waiting in the House chamber to secure his seat near the aisle where the president will enter with the hopes of shaking his hand.

Said Engel: “What’s happened through the years is that you’ve got to get there earlier and earlier because more people come. You have to be there yourself, so instead of coming to the office, I go to the floor and I wait.”

Quote of the Day

“Reid is done; he’s going to lose.”

– Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV), quoted by Politico, on the re-election prospects of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV).

Populist Revolt Brewing?

The Oregonian reports that Oregon voters yesterday bucked decades of anti-tax sentiment “raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy to prevent further erosion of public schools and other state services.”

“The double-barreled victory is the first voter-approved statewide income tax increase since the 1930s. Other states, facing similar budget woes, are watching the outcome closely because Oregon, after all, is a state that capped property taxes and locked a surplus tax rebate program into the constitution.”

Six Republicans Vote Against Bill They Sponsored

Mike Allen: “Who would co-sponsor a bill, and then vote against it? Six Republican senators would — almost the exact margin of defeat Tuesday for a plan endorsed by President Barack Obama that would have formed a task force on the deficit to try to force tough choices on Congress.”

Marc Ambinder: “Most Republicans opposed the bill on the grounds that it was little more than a way for President Obama to bolster his deficit-fighting resume. Six Republicans who supported an identical measure voted NAY this time, including two Republicans who don’t want to give any ammunition their primary opponents. John McCain — JOHN McCAIN — voted no. Why? Hard to say.”

Republicans Grab Lead in Generic Ballot

A new NPR poll finds Republicans now leading Democrats in the generic congressional ballot by five points, 44% to 39%.

In 2008, Democrats won the generic ballot by 8 points.

Glen Bolger: “To have a thirteen point shift in just over one year is a remarkable shift in the political environment. The GOP lead is bolstered by a twelve point advantage among Independents. The caveat for Republicans, however, is that 40% of Independents are undecided. Thus, they are still up for grabs.”

Two other new polls:

A Democracy Corps survey finds Republicans leading in the generic ballot test, 46% to 45%.

A  NBC/WSJ poll shows Democrats leading 44% to 42%.

Toomey Leads by Double-Digits in Pennsylvania

A new Franklin & Marshall poll being in Pennsylvania finds Pat Toomey (R) leading Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) for the U.S. Senate by 14 points among likely voters, 45% to 31%.

Toomey leads Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), 41 percent to 19 percent.

In a Democratic primary match up, Specter leads Sestak, 30% to 13%, with 50% undecided.

Meanwhile, Specter tells the New York Times, “I am not discouraged.”

McCollum Expands Leads in Florida

A new Quinnipiac poll in Florida finds Bill McCollum (R) extending his lead over Alex Sink (D) to 10 points in the gubernatorial race, 51% to 41%.

Said pollster Peter Brown: “But McCollum shouldn’t start picking out draperies for the governor’s office. Certainly part of his lead is due to being somewhat better known than Ms. Sink – although neither one is a household name in the state.”

McCollum led by just four points in late October.

POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 1/26

Stupak Not Running for Governor

Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) said he “won’t seek the Democratic nomination for Michigan governor this year and instead will run for re-election to Congress, where he holds powerful committee assignments and has been a significant voice in the health care debate,” the AP reports.

Earlier, Stupak implied he would only run if he could avoid a primary.

Campaign Donations by Text Not Yet Possible

With Americans donating to the Haiti relief effort at unprecedented numbers through text messaging, Nathan Gonzales looks at the legal hurdles that prevent congressional candidates from using the same technology to solicit campaign contributions.

Plan B for Health Care Reform?

Roll Call reports that House and Senate Democratic leaders “have been talking behind the scenes about possible ways to revive their legislation but still don’t have a plan a week after Republican Scott Brown rocked their world by winning the Massachusetts Senate special election.”

However, John Podesta tells TPM there is a growing “consensus” behind “having the House pass the Senate’s health care bill but only with guarantees that it could later be amended through a reconciliation bill.”

Meanwhile, Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH), the ranking Republican on the Budget Committee, told the New York Times that, of reconciliation, Republicans “would make it an extraordinarily difficult exercise.”

Tea Party Convention Unraveling

The New York Times reports a Tea Party convention “billed as the coming together of the grass-roots groups that began sprouting up around the country a year ago is unraveling as sponsors and participants pull out to protest its expense and express concerns about ‘profiteering.’”

“The convention’s difficulties highlight the fractiousness of the Tea Party groups, and the considerable suspicions among their members of anything that suggests the establishment.”

Pence Will Not Challenge Bayh

Sources confirm to Erick Erickson that Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) will not run for the U.S. Senate from Indiana, despite polls showing he could beat Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN).

Pence will soon send out a letter to supporters outlining his reasons.

Instead, Pence is said to be considering a 2012 presidential bid.

Mixed Message in Massachusetts

Daniel Larison looked at the Washington Post polling analysis of the results in Massachusetts and concludes: “So what we have here is a significant bloc of Brown voters, at least 24% of them, who approve of Obama, support his policies, and want more activist government, and some of them even support the bill Brown has promised to kill.”

Another incredible nugget: “Perhaps most amusing, 52% of Brown voters approved of Ted Kennedy’s job performance.”

Crist May Appear with Obama Again

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) — who has taken a “steady pounding” for his “man hug” with President Obama last February” and is now running behind in his Senate primary race — may be with Obama again later this week “when the president may announce a major award of high-speed rail money for Florida — money that state officials say will create thousands of new jobs,” the St. Petersburg Times reports.

Quote of the Day

“As you know, there’s been a schmear campaign about my position on some of the social issues.”

– Harold Ford (D), quoted by the New York Times, dropping a little Yiddish in a radio interview yesterday about his possible U.S. Senate bid from New York.

Meanwhile, Stephen Colbert named Ford the “Alpha Dog of the Week” in a very funny video.

Read more…

Wolfson to City Hall

Howard Wolfson, “who helped craft and drive the message” in New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s re-election bid, “is joining the mayor’s City Hall team in a broad senior advisory role as the administration prepares for a third term in a brutal economic climate,” the New York Post reports.

“The job will have a sweeping portfolio, involving both crafting policy and shaping the agenda, as well as advancing Team Bloomberg’s message.”

“Wolfson is also the only senior member of Bloomberg’s kitchen cabinet who’s worked on a presidential run – and speculation has been running wild that the mayor, who’s a lame duck at City Hall now, is eyeing the White House in 2012 after seriously putting pieces together to run for 2008 but ultimately deciding against pulling the switch.”

Total Paralysis on the National Debt

First Read: “But just how hard is it to really cut into the nation’s debt? Look no further than today’s Senate vote to establish an independent debt commission, which would come up with bipartisan recommendations to reduce the debt. Today’s vote isn’t expected to get 60 votes because conservatives are worried that the commission’s recommendations would include tax increases, while liberals are concerned that there would be cuts in entitlement spending. Well, yeah — the only way to really reduce the debt (outside of another economic boom like we saw in the late ’90s) is to both raise taxes and cut entitlement spending. That Democrats and Republicans can’t come together on something like this only adds to the perception that Washington isn’t working.”

The Return of Populism

David Brooks: “Ever since I started covering politics, the Democratic ruling class has been driven by one fantasy: that voters will get so furious at people with M.B.A.’s that they will hand power to people with Ph.D.’s. The Republican ruling class has been driven by the fantasy that voters will get so furious at people with Ph.D.’s that they will hand power to people with M.B.A.’s. Members of the ruling class love populism because they think it will help their section of the elite gain power.”

Gillibrand, Cuomo Lead in New York

A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in New York finds Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) leading potential Democratic primary rival Harold Ford (D), 41% to 27%, with another 29% still undecided.

In a gubernatorial primary match up, Andrew Cuomo (D) crushes Gov. David Paterson (D), 63% to 19%, with 18% still undecided.

Rubio Leads Crist in Florida

A new Quinnipiac poll in Florida finds Marco Rubio (R) now leading Gov. Charlie Crist (R) in the Republican race for U.S. Senate, 47% to 44%.

Said pollster Peter Brown: “Who would have thunk it? A former state lawmaker virtually unknown outside of his South Florida home whose challenge to an exceedingly popular sitting governor for a U.S. Senate nomination had many insiders scratching their heads. He enters the race 31 points behind and seven months later sneaks into the lead. And, the horse race numbers are not a fluke. Rubio also tops Crist on a number of other measurements from registered Republicans, who are the only folks who can vote in the primary. Rubio’s grassroots campaigning among Republican activists around the state clearly has paid off.”

Rubio also beats Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) in a general election match up, 44% to 35%. Crist leads Meek, 48% to 36%.

POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 1/25

Bauer Regrets Use of Metaphor

South Carolina Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R), under fire for drawing a comparison between needy people and “stray animals,” told CNN that he regrets his choice of words.

Bauer, who is running for governor, also added that he is “not against animals.”

Democrats Need to Learn the Blame Game

“Contrary to what you might think, I am a proud member of the pro finger-pointing caucus,” James Carville writes. “Point fingers is exactly what Democrats have done following Republican Scott Brown’s surprise victory in Massachusetts, and the subsequent setback for health care reform.”

“The White House, Martha Coakley, the Massachusetts attorney-general, Celinda Lake, her pollster, congressional Democrats, the Democratic National Committee, Nancy Pelosi, the House Speaker, and Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader, are just a few of the circular firing squad that has sucked up every last breath in Washington this past week.”

“Democrats would not be playing the blame game with one another for the loss or for the health care debacle if they had only pointed fingers at those (or in this case, the one) who put Americans (and most of the world) in the predicament we’re in: George W. Bush.”

However, Politico has a different take: “Democrats Bush-bashing strategy goes bust.”

White House Doesn’t See Parallels to 1994

In an interview with the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, Rep. Marion Berry (D-AR) claims the White House is ignoring the parallels between today’s political environment and when Democrats lost control of the House in 1994.

Said Berry: “They just don’t seem to give it any credibility at all. They just kept telling us how good it was going to be. The president himself, when that was brought up in one group, said, ‘Well, the big difference here and in ‘94 was you’ve got me.’ We’re going to see how much difference that makes now.”

Berry made his decision and just announced his retirement.

Spotlight Back on Sanford Scandal

If South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R) thought he could quietly serve out the remaining months of his term without much publicity — particularly with the state’s lieutenant governor now stealing the headlines — he was wrong.

Jenny Sanford’s new book, Staying True, will soon put the focus back on her husband’s personal problems.

According to GOP 12, the book’s release will also be accompanied by a media tour, starting with The View on February 8.

Most Think Stimulus Funds Were Wasted

A new CNN/Opinion Research survey finds that 63% of the public thinks that projects in the economic stimulus plan passed last year “were included for purely political reasons and will have no economic benefit,” with 36% saying those projects will benefit the economy.

Nearly three out of four Americans think the money has simply been wasted.

Of course, of the $787 billion in the package, $288 billion was for tax cuts to 95% of all Americans and $275 billion was for states to prevent cuts in public services. Most of the remaining money dedicated for specific “shovel-ready projects” hasn’t even been spent yet because the projects were not “shovel-ready.”

Joe Klein: “It is very difficult to have a democracy without citizens. It is impossible to be a citizen if you don’t make an effort to understand the most basic activities of your government. It is very difficult to thrive in an increasingly competitive world if you’re a nation of dodos.”

An Edwards Sex Tape?

If you didn’t think the scandals surrounding John Edwards could get worse, think again.

Sources have told Gawker that, “in the throes of their affair, John Edwards and Rielle Hunter made a sex tape that contains ’several sex acts.’ And that his aide, Andrew Young found it on an unmarked DVD.”

More details are expected in Young’s book, The Politician, due out next week and in a Friday interview to promote it on the ABC News show20/20.

Biden Will Not Run for Senate

“After this weekend’s mini frenzy over whether Beau Biden will run for his father’s old Senate seat, Beau Biden has now announced — in an e-mail to supporters and on his Web site — that he will not run for the seat in 2010. He announced he’s running for re-election as attorney general instead,” First Read reports.

“This decision all but makes GOP Congressman Mike Castle the front-runner for Delaware’s Senate seat, giving the GOP a clear pick-up opportunity here.”

Update: CQ Politics reports Sen. Ted Kaufman (D-DE) “is sticking to his plan to retire at the end of this year and will not defend the seat to which he was appointed on a interim basis.”

Previewing the State of the Union

The New York Times is the first to get a snapshot of what President Obama will say in his first State of the Union speech on Wednesday night, noting he’s expected to propose “a package of modest initiatives intended to help middle-class families, including tax credits for child care, caps on some student loan payments and a requirement that companies let workers save automatically for retirement.”

“By focusing on what one White House official calls ‘the sandwich generation’ — struggling families squeezed between sending their children to college and caring for elderly parents — Mr. Obama hopes to use his speech on Wednesday to demonstrate that he understands the economic pain of ordinary Americans. The proposals also include expanded tax credits for retirement savings and money for programs to help families care for elderly relatives.”

Pence Edges Bayh in New Poll

A new Rasmussen Reports survey in Indiana finds Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) edging Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) in a possible U.S. Senate match up, 47% to 44%.

Pence is reportedly mulling a challenge to Bayh.

Bayh leads former Rep. John Hostettler (R), 44% to 41%, and beats Marlin Stutzman (R), 45% to 33%.

Perry Using Felons as Campaign Workers

Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s (R) gubernatorial campaign “has unknowingly paid convicted felons as part-time workers under its incentive program to turn out voters for the Republican primary,” the Dallas Morning News reports.

Health Care Debate Flatlines

“Democratic leaders in Congress insist they will pass a health care reform bill. They just have no idea how or when they will do it,” Roll Call reports.

“After last week’s disastrous defeat in Massachusetts shattered their 60-vote Senate supermajority, Democrats floundered and appeared trapped between two political realities. If they don’t pass a reform bill, they will have failed a key test of their ability to govern and face a dispirited base and potentially catastrophic losses in November. But Members also fear that moving too quickly or aggressively will turn off independents and likewise lead to an electoral drubbing.”

Meanwhile, in an interview by ABC News, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D) had advice for how to handle Republican opposition: “Make them filibuster. Make them go before America people.  Make the American people look at a modern day spectacle of what a filibuster would entail. I think it’s time to call their bluff.”

Quote of the Day

“It’s a disappointment. It hurts like hell. I can’t tell you how much it hurts. But, it’s also a gift. If we learn the lessons to get back to the basics, to deliver for the American people the change we promised them in 2008.”

– Donna Brazile. in an interview on CNN, on Democratic Senate loss in Massachusetts.

Most Polarized First Year Ever

Gallup: “The 65 percentage-point gap between Democrats’ (88%) and Republicans’ (23%) average job approval ratings for Barack Obama is easily the largest for any president in his first year in office, greatly exceeding the prior high of 52 points for Bill Clinton.”

Goodman Polls Much Better than Reid

A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Nevada finds Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, a former Democrat turned independent, continues to poll much better than Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) when matched up against potential GOP challengers for U.S. Senate.

Reid trails Danny Tarkanian (R), 51% to 41%, and loses to Sue Lowden (R), 51% to 42%. However, Goodman edges Tarkanian, 44% to 41%, and tops Lowden, 44% to 40%.

Ford Looks Likely to Enter Senate Race

The New York Times reports that friends who have spoken with Harold Ford Jr. (D) in recent days said that he was “more likely than not” to enter the New York U.S. Senate race.

“He has done little to tamp down such speculation. He has taken a 30-day leave of absence from his job at Bank of America; reserved several campaign Web sites, like FordforNewYork.com; and is in discussions about setting up an exploratory committee that would allow him to raise money while he is deciding.”

Giannoulias, Kirk Lead in Illinois

A new Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll in Illinois finds Alexi Giannoulias (D) in the Democratic U.S. Senate race with 34%, followed by Cheryle Jackson (D) at 19% and David Hoffman (D) at 16%.

In the Republican race, Rep. Mark Kirk (R) held onto a wide lead over Patrick Hughes, 47% to 8%.

Interestingly, CQ Politics reports Kirk’s own internal poll shows a much closer race for the Republican nomination.

Eric Zorn: “I would have predicted a better showing for Hoffman, who has picked up numerous newspaper endorsements and has great anti-corruption bona fides, and for Hughes, who is the favorite of movement conservatives. But unless nearly all the undecideds break the other way (or our polling is off), Hoffman and Hughes look like toast.”

The primary is on February 2.

POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 1/22

Senate Paralysis

Politics Daily notes that since Democrats lost the special election in Massachusetts, “progress on health care reform has become frozen in its tracks and Senate Democrats are so paralyzed over what to do next, they are doing absolutely nothing.”

The Senate held just two votes this week, a vote to confirm a judicial nominee and a failed attempt to end TARP.

Huckabee Edges Obama in 2012 Match Up

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds that for the first time President Obama “trails one of his hypothetical opponents, albeit by the smallest of margins.”

Mike Huckabee edges Obama, 45% to 44%.

Mitt Romney does the next best, trailing Obama 44% to 42%, while Sarah Palin trails Obama 49% to 41%.

Quote of the Day

“I’m a history buff. I love the Museum of Natural History.”

– Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R-MA), quoted by the Washington Post.

Bushies Take on Perry

The Texas Tribune notes how Bush family intimates have lined up solidly behind Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) in her primary challenge to Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R).

In fact, even former President H.W. Bush today made “a rare overtly political announcement” in which he endorsed Hutchison.

“What’s going on here? It’s a question without a definitive answer and a subject that those in-the-know do not want to go anywhere near. Nearly every one of the two dozen sources contacted for this story refused to be quoted by name; several of those who went on the record saved their best material for after they went back off. But everyone with knowledge of the Bushworld-Perryworld divide had a theory.”

McCain Attacks Hayworth in New Ad

Despite a wide lead in a new poll, The Hotline reports Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) launched a tough new radio ad against former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) who has not even entered the race yet.

The script: “John McCain’s running for re-election. Well, I’d hope so, why wouldn’t he? It’s not like our country is on the right track. It’s a mess, Congress spending us into oblivion. We need McCain, standing up to the big shots, slashing spending; saying what no one else has the nerve to say. But, J.D. Hayworth? That’s not what Arizona wants. He sounds conservative on the radio, but J.D. was one of the biggest spenders in Congress. In 2005, they passed a bill with six thousand five hundred pork barrel earmarks worth more than twenty four billion dollars. J.D. voted for every one. He’d be the wrong direction for Arizona. McCain’s the right direction. Character matters.”

More Gillibrand Challengers Coming?

“Harold Ford Jr.’s presence as an increasingly likely Senate primary rival against Kirsten Gillibrand is fueling speculation that other Democrats who’d been warned off running by the White House and Sen. Charles Schumer might reconsider,” the New York Post reports.

Schumer is not considered vulnerable in his own re-election race, “with a massive war chest and a strong political base. But Schumer, who is obsessed with his own poll numbers and who sources said was riled by the Massachusetts upset, is less likely to leave himself with without a firewall against the national tide.”

Lincoln Faces Tight Race

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Arkansas finds Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) in tight races with six different Republicans seeking to challenge her in this year’s election.

Gilbert Baker (R) edges Lincoln, 43% to 39%, Jim Holt (R) tops Lincoln, 43% to 37%.

However, Lincoln edges Curtis Coleman (R), 40% to 39%, beats Conrad Reynolds (R), 41% to 38%, tops Kim Hendren (R), 43% to 38%, and is ahead of Tom Cox (R), 41% to 38%.

Said pollster Brad Coker: “The one constant number that runs through that whole group of questions is how Blanche Lincoln is stuck at about 40 percent.”

McCain Pulls Ahead of Hayworth

A new Rasmussen Reports survey in Arizona finds Sen. John McCain (R) handily beating former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) in a potential GOP primary match up, 53% to 31%.

In November, the two candidates were virtually even.

Sodrel Leads Hill in Yet Another Potential Rematch

A new SurveyUSA poll in Indiana’s 9th congressional district finds Mike Sodrel (R) leading Rep. Baron Hill (D), 49% to 41%.

If Sodrel survives a GOP primary, it would be the fifth time Sodrel and Hill have faced off for the seat.

Whitman Way Ahead of Poizner

The latest Field Poll in California finds Meg Whitman (R) crushing Steve Poizner (R) in the Republican gubernatorial primary, 45% to 17%.

However, Jerry Brown (D) beats Whitman in a general election match up, 46% to 36%. Brown beats Poizner, 48% to 31%.

Campaigns Without Spending Limits

In a guest post, Ray LaRaja, an expert in campaign finance at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, examines the impact of yesterday’s Supreme Court ruling that rolled back spending limits. He’s the author of Small Change: Money, Political Parties, and Campaign Finance Reform.

Who benefits from this ruling? Going into the midterms, it likely helps Republicans who now have momentum and a game plan — thanks to the GOP victory in Massachusetts. Party loyalists will set up operations to raise corporate funds and run ads in targeted districts. These groups will have names like, “American Patriots for Jobs” paid for by a bevy of like-minded corporate firms. Not all corporate groups will play this game — it could backfire on them with the public. Don’t forget that unions can do the same thing. In the next midterm, ads will be sharper, negative and more prolific since interest groups don’t have to obfuscate the message by avoiding electioneering words. They can simply say, “A vote for her is a vote to raise taxes!” Broadcasts will be jam-packed with campaign ads up through Election Day. (Hint: a good ground game might be more effective in this saturated environment.)

And what about the presidential election? President Obama is surely not pleased about this outcome for strategic, if not moral concerns. This ruling eviscerates his financial edge in raising money. The Obama campaign broke all records raising over $700 million from large and small donors, many of them over the Internet. Now he can expect corporate-backed advertising to be used against him. It is doubtful he will dissuade liberal groups (as he did is 2008) from joining the fray. He will need them this time!

Wake Up Call for Democrats

Charlie Cook argues that “any Democrat with a pulse ought to be extremely alarmed by now” at the state of their party. While their candidates who lost in November and in Massachusetts “all had their share of flaws,” their opponents “were able to take advantage of the vise grip in which Obama and his party are caught” — stuck between voters frustrated by inaction on the economy, and others angry about the growth in government spending.

Importantly, many of these voters are independents, who “have little patience left for Democrats.”

Most Want Health Care Bill Changed

A new Gallup poll finds that by a 55% to 39% margin, Americans say President Obama and Congress should now suspend work on the health care bill and consider alternatives rather than trying to pass the current version.

For Now, Democrats Likely to Retain Senate Control

Nate Silver’s latest Senate rankings show that Democrats “will retain an average of 54.7 seats in the 112th Congress. The distribution, however, is slightly asymmetrical, so the median number is 54, and the modal number is 53.”

“And things could, potentially, get a whole lot worse than that; the program recognizes that the outcome of the different races are correlated based on changes in the national environment. Between the surprise in Massachusetts, and races like California and Indiana which are potentially coming into play, there’s about a 6-7 percent chance that Republicans could actually take control of the Senate, and another 6 percent chance or so that they could wind up with a 50-50 split. On the other hand, there’s still a 7-8 percent chance that the Democrats could regain their 60th seat if the national environment shifts back in their direction.”

Republican Brand Still Badly Damaged

A new Public Policy Polling poll found that only 19% of voters nationally are happy with the direction of the Republican Party, compared to 56% who are unhappy with it. Even GOP voters are displeased with where the party’s going: Just 38% say they are unhappy with the current direction to 35% who support it.

Analysis: “This much seems clear: if the Republicans keep winning even with a heavily damaged national brand it’s an indication voters are choosing much more by what they’re against right now than what they’re for. I think a GOP controlled Congress for next year is still unlikely but it could be the best thing that ever happened to Barack Obama’s reelection hopes.”

In a related piece, Politico notes that “it is indisputable that the GOP has surged, especially in the past several months” but that it is “also indisputable that the rise has little to do with the voters’ view of Republicans writ large — and that the very concerns that got them booted from power persist today.”

Sarah Palin’s Avatar

Sarah Palin apparently will not be one of the thousands attending today’s National March for Life in Washington, DC — which takes place annually on the anniversary of the Roe v. Wade decision — but David Brody notes her “avatar” will be there.

The groups has an online campaign that allows people to create an avatar of themselves and “march” online.

Unions Backed Brown Over Coakley

Scott Brown’s (R) victory in the Massachusetts U.S. Senate race “was lifted by strong support from union households,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

An AFL-CIO poll found that 49% of union households in the state supported Brown, while 46% supported Martha Coakley (D).