POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 9/7
Warner Will Make Decision Next Week
In Virginia, Mark Warner (D) told the AP ”that he would make an announcement about his political plans in about a week.” He is widely expected to run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. John Warner (R-VA).
The former Virginia governor said he wants to talk over the options with his family “one last time.”
There’s speculation he may make the announcement at the Democratic Party of Virginia, Central Committee meeting on Saturday, Sept. 15. Warner’s “Almost Annual Pig Roast”, a celebration gathering of party loyalists, is being held at Warner’s farm following the meeting. Seems like these previously scheduled events would be ideal venues for an announcement.
Clinton, Giuliani Tops in Pennsylvania
A new Keystone poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton leading the Democratic presidential race with 38%, followed by Sen. Barack Obama at 21% and John Edwards at 17%.
On the GOP side, Rudy Giuliani leads with 32%, followed by Sen. John McCain at 19%, Mitt Romney at 12% and Fred Thompson at 11%.
Key finding: Like an earlier Ohio poll found, Pennsylvania is trending blue with the leading Democrats beating the leading Republicans.
Least Religious Candidates Lead Primary Field
A new Pew Research poll shows the presidential candidates “viewed by voters as the least religious among the leading contenders are the current frontrunners for the Democratic and Republican nominations — Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, respectively.”
The poll also found that Mitt Romney is “far and away” viewed as the most religious presidential candidate — even topping George W. Bush in that category. “Indeed, comparable numbers who expressed an opinion see Romney and President Bush as very religious (46% vs. 43%), though far fewer offered an opinion about Romney’s religiosity [mixing religious views with partisanship] than the president’s (47% vs. 87%).”
On Republicans and Mormons: “A quarter of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say they would be less likely to vote for a Mormon. But among white Republican evangelical Protestants, 36% express reservations about voting for a Mormon. That compares with 21% of white Catholic Republican voters, and 16% of white non-evangelical Protestant Republicans.”
The Cook Political Report looks at the two open House seats and notes special elections are unlikely to change the political landscape in either district.
In MA-05, Rep. Marty Meehan’s (D-MA) resignation ”offers Republicans scant opportunity to steal the seat in the October special election… no Republican in Congress currently represents a district as heavily Democratic as MA-05. It remains in the Solid Democratic column.”
In OH-05, the vacancy created by Rep. Paul Gillmor’s (R-OH) death ”may warrant slightly more attention” and “is likely to be a more competitive special election than Massachusetts’s. But for now, the seat remains in the Solid Republican column.”
See Cook’s most recent House Race Summary.
Thompson, Clinton Leading in North Carolina
In North Carolina, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds Fred Thompson leading the GOP presidential race with 34%, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 16%, Mitt Romney at 13% and Sen. John McCain at 7%.
On the Democratic side, Sen. Hillary Clinton continues to provide a good challenge to John Edwards in his home state, edging him by two points, 30% to 28%, with Sen. Barack Obama coming in at 21%.
Craig Drops Effort to Serve Out Term
Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID) “has all but dropped any notion of trying to complete his term, and is focused on helping Idaho send a new senator to Washington within a few weeks,” the Idaho Statesman reports.
Said a spokesman: “The most likely scenario, by far, is that by October there will be a new senator from Idaho.”
“The only circumstances in which Craig might try to complete his term, Whiting said, would require a prompt overturning of his conviction for disorderly conduct in a mens room at the Minneapolis airport, as well as Senate GOP leaders agreement to restore Craigs committee leaderships posts taken away this week.” Both are seen as unlikely.
Democrats Hold Commanding Lead in House Race
Democrats have opened an 18 point lead in the generic congressional ballot, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national survey. If the Congressional Election were held today, 50% of American voters say they would vote for the Democrat in their district while just 32% would opt for the Republican.
A month ago, the Democrats lead was just ten percentage points, 47% to 37%.
Los Angeles Times: “It’s been a family secret for many, many years, uncovered only by the most diligent reporting. Few people know this. But Fred Thompson’s actual first name isn’t Fred. It’s really Freddie… Official marriage, birth and divorce records in Alabama and Tennessee show that the newest Republican presidential contender was born Freddie Dalton Thompson.”
The Republican presidential candidates “clashed last night in their most contentious debate of the campaign, in pointed exchanges over immigration, the war in Iraq and who among them is the best prepared to be commander in chief,” theNew York Times reports.
They also aimed their fire at the one candidate who was absent, former Sen. Fred Thompson, who officially jumps in the race today.
If you missed it, Salon has a useful minute-by-minute recap.
First Read: “There were three clear winners last night: Giuliani, Huckabee, and Thompson. Yes, Thompson — he came out a winner within the first five minutes, thanks to the moderators opening question about the candidate-to-bes decision to go on Leno instead of showing up for this debate. The fact that every candidate (including Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee, and even McCain) took potshots reinforced the idea that the entire GOP field views him as a major candidate. In fact, most of the debate leads this morning included the Thompson shots. The Thompson folks could not have asked for a better setup. As for the winners who actually participated, Giulianis performance was particularly strong — perhaps his best debate to date. Hes clearly comfortable being the front-runner; he absorbs the attacks from opponents without looking as if that opponent matters. His strongest answers were in defense of NOT signing the no-tax pledge and on guns, but his roughest moment was his shaky answer to the family-values questioner. Meanwhile, Huckabee doing well at a debate is about as common as the sun rising in the east. In particular, the exchange with Ron Paul where Huckabee got to defend McCain, defend the surge, and also call Iraq a mistake was, we dare say, a mix of Reagan and Clinton.”
Marc Ambinder: “Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani won. John McCain did very well, too.”
“I’ve passed more bills, I’m sure, than either of them. Certainly on the state legislative level.”
– Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), quoted by the Des Moines Register, “in response to an audience member’s question on whether he has enough experience to be president.” Neither Clinton nor Edwards served in a state legislature.
Clinton, Thompson Lead in South Carolina
In South Carolina, a new Clemson University Palmetto Poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton leading the Democratic presidential race with 26%, followed by Sen. Barack Obama at 16%, John Edwards at 10% and Al Gore at 8%.
On the Republican side, Fred Thompson leads with 19%, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 18%, Sen.John McCain at 15%, Mitt Romney at 11%, Newt Gingrich at 9% and Mike Huckabee at 6%.
“Ohio, the key state in the 2004 presidential election, is turning blue in the 2008 campaign, with Democratic candidates winning 11 of 12 matchups with Republican contenders,” according to a new Quinnipiac poll.
The Politico reviews Clinton strategist Mark Penn’s new book, Microtrends, and says it shows the author’s “hunger to be seen as man of ideas rather than mere pollster.”
“At first blush, the book hits only glancingly on politics, while touring what Penn contends are such ascendant social phenomenons as older fathers, extroverted technology geeks, online pornography, late-starting kindergartners and so on.”
“Between the lines, however, is a splendid window into ‘Hillarys Brain.’ Not to mention repeated reminders of some striking Rove/Penn parallels.”
“I don’t even remember the details of his plan.”
– Fred Thompson, quoted by Bloomberg, when asked how his ideas for overhauling the social security system differ from those of President Bush.
As “the real presidential campaign begins now,” Larry Sabato points out that most national polls on the presidential race have done little except “measure name identification and personal familiarity… This will come as a great shock to the pollsters and traditional media who have already declared that the November 2008 race will be between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani.”
“Real people, even most activist voters, do not make up their mind on presidential choice until they have to do so. In Iowa and New Hampshire, still the most crucial nominating states despite all the tinkering with the schedule, voters are tough-minded and wonderfully heartless in picking the people who probably will be the general election standard-bearers. We look forward to some egg-on-face retrospectives on mainstream media coverage if those influential early voters decide to ignore the Beltway script.”
Transport Workers Endorse Edwards
The 200,000 member New York City-based Transport Workers Union of America is set to endorse John Edwards today, the AP reports.
In their endorsement, the union emphasizes Edwards’ electability and take a thinly veiled shot at Hillary Clinton: “If we look at the other candidates, most of them triangulate between Wall Street, corporate America and unions, and John has pretty much stayed on track with working families.”
Colorado Republicans Will Move Up Contest
“The Colorado GOP is expected to announce today that it has changed its caucus date to Feb. 5 and will hold a presidential-preference poll,” Republican sources told the Denver Post.
Colorado usually holds its caucus in the third week of March but has decided to join the February 5 ‘Tsunami Tuesday.’ Democrats moved their caucus to the same date six weeks ago. “The preference poll, which will follow the election of county delegates, is nonbinding and functions much like a straw poll.”
