VA GOP: PARTY OVER?
Paul Goldman – Richmond Times-Dispatch
Is the Virginia Republican Party still a statewide party? Based on last night’s political EKG, just barely. With a handful of more votes in several Northern Virginia counties, the Democrats would have hit the GOP in NOVA with the political equivalent of the meteor that took out the Dinosaurs 65 million years ago. Ever since “Deficit” Jim Gilmore’s fiscal follies helped elect Northern Virginian Mark Warner to the Governorship, the Republicans have gone out of their way to prove to NOVA voters they are not in any hurry to address, much less solve, the area’s unique problems. Admittedly, upon seeing the tail of that speeding rock heading their way in the sky above the General Assembly building in Richmond, GOP leaders did work this year to put some pro-NOVA ammunition in their campaign arsenal. But it proved to be a dollar – or precisely 2.5 billion dollars in a controversial transportation package – short and about 6 years too late.
More importantly in political terms, it was perceived in Northern Virginia as at best a death-bed conversion, and not a very useful one at that. Ironically, I believe the decision by Northern Virginian Congressman Tom Davis to withdraw from the 2008 GOP Senatorial nomination contest a short time before yesterday’s vote, citing the difficulty of moderate Republican to get support in his party, helped reinforce this image of his party.
Still, demographics, as they say, is destiny and in that regard, changes in NOVA are making it hard for even the best of Republicans to win with what is perceived as the failed message of yesterday. By this time next year, Northern Virginia will have gone overwhelmingly for Democratic Senate nominee Mark Warner and whomever the Democrats nominate for President.
In this regard, the Virginia Republican Party may feel their candidates are getting a bad rap, and this image of them in NOVA of being an intolerant narrow-minded party blinded to the practical needs of a growing state by an obsession with making purity more important than performance, is unwarranted.
Yet there is an iron law of politics that must always be observed: Don’t blame the customer. If such an image is what key swing voters believe, then you either deal with it, or you lose with it. Your choice.
On the other hand, at least in terms of Northern Virginia, the state GOP is a like stock that has gone from $200 to $10 dollars a share: the good news is it only has $10 more dollars of downside!
So a case can be made that yesterday’s result will be seen in future years as the cresting of the Democratic wave in Northern Virginia, the Tsunami finally crashing finally to land in November of 2008. At which point, everyone who has wanted to ring the Democratic cash register has made that sale, and now begins the inevitable cycle back, with out-of-office Republicans able to promise the people all the wonderful things they will do if given back the power of governing.
Politics is cyclical, which of course is captured in the timeless saying that in politics, timing is everything. In Virginia, to be a statewide political party, you cannot concede one of the state’s three corners – Tidewater, Southside/Southwest and NOVA – to the opposition. When the Democrats did that, they couldn’t elect a Governor or Senator: now that the Republicans are on the verge of doing it in Northern Virginia, then they too will not be able to elect a Governor or Senator either.
As for the rest of the state, the message sent by the voters was far more complex and often candidate specific. The Democrats showed good strength, but so did the Republican party in a less than ideal environment for their side. We Democrats have to realize that the Republican message on fiscal matters, social issues, and illegal immigration is very powerful even if it is somewhat devoid from their actual performance, both recently in Richmond and currently at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
In retrospect, Republican Speaker Bill Howell proved to be a more savvy political operator than he appeared, the same for several other Republicans in the House of Delegates. And at the Senate level, we Democrats need to remember this fact: but-for the suicide raid by Republican activists on GOP stalwart Senator Marty Williams, we would not have a Senate majority.
So while yesterday was a good for Democrats, it’s headline success – winning back the Senate – was as much their doing as it was ours!!
But that is often the case politics, it goes with the territory and those political flash floods long a part of the landscape.
So is the statewide party over for the VA GOP? Only if they refuse to realize they are in a hole and decide to just keep digging. While fixing their political problem in NOVA is not easy, it is not hard either. Virginia is a big state, with great people, all who deserve public officials committed to solving their problems, wherever they may live. Compromise isn’t easy, indeed sometimes it is not possible to get both sides of the aisle to agree and so it is then left to the people to choose the path to follow.
In a presidential year, there tends to be a smaller window of time than normal to do the people’s business at the state level. So next year’s General Assembly session figures to start fast and move quickly. The people of Northern Virginia particularly now have very high expectations.
This should give the Republicans all the incentive they need to make it clear the VA GOP is a statewide party for all the people of the Commonwealth. We will see if they are up to the task.
