POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 11/14 & 15
November 15, 2007
Clinton Holds Steady in Debate
It’s clear Sen. Hillary Clinton won tonight’s Democratic debate in Nevada — but not because she was better than Sen. Barack Obama and John Edwards. She simply didn’t make any major mistakes and that’s really all she needed to do.
The Washington Post notes Clinton “made a noticeable effort to sound definitive and concise” after a poor performance in the last debate.
Marc Ambinder: “Tonight’s debate will probably stop the talk of a huge momentum swing away from Hillary Clinton. Though a little overly conducted at times, Clinton did not sound any obvious false notes, nor did she strike confusing or conflicting notes, and, as a bonus, she got an entire minute and a half to make her rah-rah appeal to women. Clinton had the most at stake tonight, and she arguably gave her most commanding performance to date.”
If you missed it, the New York Times provides a good run down.
Another Iowa Poll, Similar Results
A new Research 2000 poll in Iowa shows Mitt Romney leading the Republican presidential race with 27%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 18%, Rudy Giuliani at 16%, Fred Thompson at 10%, and Sen. John McCain at 6%.
This is the fourth poll in the last week that shows Huckabee solidly in second place and gaining on Romney
In the Democratic race, all three major candidates are close together — a finding also echoed by most other recent polls — with Sen. Hillary Clinton leading at 27%, Sen. Barack Obama at 25%, and John Edwards at 21%.
Dodd Closes Nevada Headquarters
“Five hours before the Democratic presidential candidates meet to debate at UNLV, Sen. Chris Dodd’s (D-CT) campaign staff has acknowledged that he has closed his Las Vegas campaign office,” Politicker NV reports. A spokesperson said he will keep staff in the state.
“Dodd isn’t the only candidate who has lost resources in the state lately. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson’s campaign acknowledged earlier in the month that they have transferred ten Nevada staffers to Iowa for “caucus training.” They will not be returning until after the Jan. 3 Iowa caucus, if at all.”
“And former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards’ Nevada director, Bill Hyers, left the Edwards campaign last week to manage Jeanne Shaheen’s New Hampshire campaign against Republican Sen. John Sununu.”
Dobbs Tells Friends He’s Considering Run
We noted the speculation earlier this week and now John Fund reports that friends of CNN anchor Lou Dobbs “say he is seriously contemplating” a presidential bid, “although it’s still unlikely.”
“They spin a scenario under which the acerbic commentator would parachute into the race if Michael Bloomberg, the New York billionaire and favorite of East Coast elites, enters the field as an independent. With Hillary Clinton continuing to score badly in polls in the categories of honesty and integrity, and with the public’s many doubts about Rudy Giuliani and other GOP contenders, Mr. Bloomberg may well see an opportunity to roil the political waters by entering the race late. If so, Mr. Dobbs then sees a niche for a ‘fourth-party’ candidate who could paint the three other contenders as completely out of touch.”
“His playbook would be similar to that of Ross Perot in 1992, who didn’t enter the presidential race until the major parties began holding their primaries but quickly shot up to 25% in many polls.”
Obama’s Strategy for Victory
In next week’s New Yorker, Ryan Lizza reports on Sen. Barack Obama’s attempt to re-start his presidential campaign, “which, until the October 30th Democratic debate in Philadelphia, had been viewed as listless and fading.”
To do so, Obama has “begun to embrace positions that a generation of Democrats have been advised to avoid,” on everything from diplomacy in Iran to Social Security — all issues in which Hillary Clinton’s position is “artfully vague — aimed at surviving the general election — while Obama insists that it is more important to be entirely forthcoming.”
Said Obama: “What happens when we finesse the big issues during the campaign is we never build a mandate.”
In a related TNR piece, John Judis looks at how Obama took advantage of Clinton’s recent problems where “I can now envision a scenario in which Obama could surpass her.”
Kleeb Would Face Tough Race in Nebraska
Even though Scott Kleeb (D) is still weighing a possible U.S. Senate run in Nebraska, a new Research 2000 poll finds he’ll have an uphill fight against either of the two announced Republican candidates.
Former Gov. Mike Johanns (R) crushes Kleeb, 59% to 28%, while Attorney General Jon Bruning (R) beats Kleeb, 55% to 29%.
CQ has a good backgrounder on the race.
Hastert Will Resign This Year
Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL) will step down from the House before the end of this year, according to CQ Politics. He’ll make a speech this afternoon but will leave only “when I finish my work.”
Hastert’s early retirement would force a special election in IL-14. One reason he’s not giving an exact date for his departure could be the Republican Party’s hope that the special election will not be the same day as the presidential primary which could attract many Democrats to the polls since Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) is on the ticket.
CQ has a good backgrounder on the district which Leans Republican.
Loyalty Binds Giuliani Advisers
The Washington Post looks at Rudy Giuliani’s inner circle: “They are barely known outside of New York and… not on the campaign’s payroll. But they have the candidate’s ear and have been pressed into service as surrogates, mega-fundraisers and advisers. They are neither ideologues nor policy wonks, but part of an eclectic tableau of Giuliani’s life and career.”
“Their connection to him is anchored in the premise that mutual loyalty and longtime ties trump all else.”
Strickland as Veep Wouldn’t Help Democrats Win Ohio
Despite a 61% approval rating, Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland’s “presence on a presidential ticket wouldn’t help Democrats win the crucial Buckeye State,” the Columbus Dispatch reports.
“About half of the voters surveyed don’t think Strickland is qualified to become vice president, and more than two-thirds say that if he does become a running mate they won’t be any more likely to vote Democratic.”
Giuliani Still Ahead in Florida, Clinton Way Ahead
Political Wire got an advance look at a new Strategic Vision (R) poll in Florida that shows Rudy Giuliani leading with 31%, followed by a four way statistical tie for second place with Fred Thompson at 13%, Sen. John McCain at 13%, Mitt Romney at 12% and Mike Huckabee at 10%.
The Giuliani campaign has seen Florida as a firewall in the event that he loses in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. The winners in those races could get a big bump in Florida.
Meanwhile, the Democratic race is a runaway with Sen. Hillary Clinton leading with 47%, followed by Sen. Barack Obama at 27% and John Edwards at 8%.
Hoyer Plays Hardball
House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) warned his colleagues that there would be no more extended time limits for votes, according to CQ Politics.
When some lawmakers complained about crowded elevators delaying their trip to the House chamber, Hoyer responded, “If the elevators are slow, you leave with 10 minutes left on the vote.”
Democrats Deadlocked in Iowa
A new Ramussen Reports poll in Iowa finds Sen. Hillary Clinton with 29% support, barely leading John Edwards at 25% and Sen. Barack Obama at 24%. Gov. Bill Richardson finished fourth at 10%.
Huckabee Catches Romney in Iowa, Clinton Fading
Here’s the new Iowa poll we mentioned yesterday: A new American Research Group survey finds Mitt Romney barely holding on to his lead in the first caucus state with 26% support, followed closely behind by the surging Mike Huckabee at 24%. Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson tie for third with 11%, followed by Sen. John McCain at 10%.
Key finding: Among registered Republicans saying they will definitely participate in the January 3 Republican caucuses, Huckabee actually leads Romney, 24% to 23%.
On the Democratic side, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads with 27% followed closely by Sen. Barack Obama with 21% and John Edwards with 20%. Clinton’s support level is her lowest recorded by ARG in 12 Iowa polls over the past year.
Clinton Took Money from Pardon Recipients
“Three recipients of controversial 11th-hour pardons issued by former President Bill Clinton in January 2001 have donated thousands of dollars to the presidential campaign of his wife, Democratic front-runner Sen. Hillary Clinton,” according to campaign finance records examined by ABC News.
There’s nothing illegal about this, however the timing of the news before tonight’s Democratic debate is unfortunate for the Clinton campaign.
Republicans Eye Possible Pickup in FL-16
CQ Politics identifies FL-16 as one of the Republican party’s “strongest opportunities for a partisan pickup” in next year’s elections. Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-FL) “has been targeted by Republicans as a ‘fluke’ winner ever since a scandal caused the sudden and shocking downfall of his predecessor, Republican Mark Foley, just weeks before Election Day 2006.”
“Republicans note that Mahoney managed to win that year’s contest by just a 2 percentage-point margin, even though the revelations of Foley’s inappropriate conduct toward underage male pages were still fresh in voters’ minds; and his name was still on the November ballot, even though the votes cast on the Republican line were credited to the replacement nominee, then-state Rep. Joe Negron.”
Nonetheless, CQ still rates the seat No Clear Favorite.
Still No Date For New Hampshire Primary
New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner continues to wait on Michigan before he sets an official date for the state’s first in the nation primary, the New Hampshire Union-Leader reports.
“Michigan’s Democratic Party notified their state’s chief election official yesterday that it will participate in the state’s Jan. 15 presidential primary — rather than a caucus possibly on the same day as the New Hampshire’s contest — but only if the Michigan law establishing the Jan. 15 event is restored by an appeals court. The law was ruled unconstitutional on a technicality last week by a local court, putting Gardner’s date-setting agenda on hold.”
“If the Jan. 15 primary there is upheld, Gardner is expected to set the date of the New Hampshire primary for the second week of January, most likely Tuesday, Jan. 8.”
Bishops Give Leeway on Abortion
The New York Times reports that the conference of America’s Roman Catholic bishops has adopted a document which “approved principles intended to guide Catholics in choosing whom to vote for but leaving the door open for them to back candidates who support abortion rights.”
“Abortion is among a few evils greater than others, the document asserts. But it also concedes that Catholics face difficult decisions when voting and in some cases might be able to vote for those who support abortion rights or stem cell research. ‘There may be times when a Catholic who rejects a candidate’s unacceptable position may decide to vote for that candidate for other morally grave reasons,’ the document says.”
The United States Conference of Catholic Bishops “has been issuing reflections on how the church’s moral teachings should shape Catholics’ political decisions since 1976. But this was the first time that an open discussion was held on the document and that the 300 or so bishops had the chance to vote for it.”
Romney in the 60s
The New York Times has a fascinating profile of Mitt Romney in the late 1960s, as a missionary for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in France and Brigham Young University student.
“He left for France a 19-year-old freshman at Stanford, a sheltered child of privilege full of ideas about how to shake up the French mission. He could be goofy, quoting Sylvester the Cat this way — “Sutherickin Schatash! It’s humiliatin’!” — in letters to friends. He was considered the free spirit of his crowd, the one who sneaked off to movies (discouraged for missionaries) and ate coq au vin (controversial because of his church’s prohibition on alcohol). He was a half-hearted Mormon whose beliefs, as he recalled recently, were “based on pretty thin tissue.”"
“His sojourn through Paris and Provo, Utah, redoubled both his faith and his ambition. Missionary work gave him his first taste of power and responsibility, eventually overseeing the work of 175 peers. As president of the premier social club at Brigham Young, he first displayed a knack for fund-raising, bringing the university more than $1 million.
November 14, 2007
Cochran Will Run Again
Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) “punctured the building suspense over whether he would re-up for another Senate term Wednesday by issuing a short press release assuring voters that he would run again,” the Biloxi Sun-Herald reports.
CQ rates the race as Safe Republican.
Four GOP Senate Seats Expected to Flip
With the news that Rep. Tom Udall (D-NM) — “an immensely popular congressman” — would seek the seat of retiring Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM), the Evans-Novak Political Report changes its 2008 forecast.
“The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has a big fundraising edge over its Republican counterpart, and with the GOP defending at least five open seats and at least three vulnerable incumbents, their resources will be spread thin. The Republicans might find some hope in the fact that Udall didn’t really want to run in the first place, but this is the fourth GOP Senate seat to enter our Democratic column. Leaning Democratic Takeover.”
CQ rates the same four seats as No Clear Favorite.
The Score
Here’s an interesting site: The Score allows you to track the latest happenings on the House and Senate floors, as well as upcoming floor debates and committee hearings.
Spitzer’s Approval in Free Fall
New York Gov. Elliot Spitzer (D) has seen a complete collapse of his approval ratings this year, according to a new poll from SurveyUSA. Seven months ago, Spitzer’s net approval was +23. Today, it’s completely flipped, at -20.
The crosstabs show that even a majority of Democrats now disapprove of Spitzer.
Commentary: “To understand his fall one must first recall how he rose.”
Huckabee Makes His Move in Iowa
With two new polls in Iowa showing Mike Huckabee moving into a strong second place behind Mitt Romney in the Republican presidential race, Political Wire has learned that a poll coming tomorrow confirms the trend and shows the former Arkansas governor with a real chance at winning the Iowa caucuses.
Clinton Trails Giuliani Among Independents
Political Wire got an advance look at a new Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll which continues to show Sen. Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani with large national leads in their respective primary races for president. (Update: Here’s a link to the poll.)
In a general election match up, Clinton edges Giuliani, 46% to 43%, a lead that is within the poll’s margin of error. However, the more striking finding is that Giuliani leads Clinton among independent voters, 48% to 37%. This statistic feeds the “electability” factor raised by John Edwards int he Democratic primary race.
First Read notes how crucial the independent vote is for Democrats. “In 2004, per the exit polls, John Kerry — who lost the presidential election — won the independent vote by just one point (49%-48%). But when they took control of Congress last year, Democrats won the indie vote by 18 points, 57%-39%.”
Meanwhile, a new ARG national poll also shows Clinton and Giuliani with huge leads.
