ELECTION INSIDER — for political junkies
An Inside Look at Democratic Election Strategy Michael Piel, Editor
Early Primaries Show Renewed Vigor Among Voters;
Democratic and Independent Turnout Bodes Well for November
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country. Iowa has shown us that Americans are in the mood for change—and for a Democrat. Beyond who won, the striking thing about the results in Iowa , as well as New Hampshire , was the dramatic turnout on the Democratic side. According to the results, more than 239,000 Democrats, Independents, and Republicans voted in the Democratic caucus in Iowa . This turnout is astounding, far eclipsing the previous high in 2004, when more than 122,000 people participated in the Democratic caucus. In comparison, only 125,000 people participated in the Republican caucus. This large gap shows that Independents and younger voters are supporting Democrats, and it is especially interesting in a state like Iowa , which was decided by less than one percentage point in both the 2000 and 2004 elections.
Independents and Young Voters Favor Democratic Candidates and Make the Difference in Iowa
The Iowa caucus is an open caucus, allowing Independents to vote with either Democrats or Republicans, and their influence was felt. According to exit polls, Independents made up 20 percent of the vote in the Democratic caucus, amounting to more than 42,000 voters. By contrast, they made up only 13 percent of the vote in the Republican caucus, amounting to just a fraction more than 16,000 voters, an unprecedented difference. The results in Iowa show the power of the Independent vote. Their support helped fuel Barack Obama’s victory in the caucus. The exit polls show that 41 percent of Independents voted for Obama, as opposed to 23 percent for John Edwards and just 17 percent for Hillary Clinton. Regardless of which candidate they supported, the sheer size of the turnout of Independents in the Democratic caucus bodes extremely well for the general election prospects of the eventual Democratic candidate.
In addition to Independents, young voters were a large element of the increased turnout. The exit polls again showed that 22 percent of voters were between the ages of 17 and 22, for a total of more than 52,000 voters. This share matched the share of the 65-and-older age group.
In 2004, only 17 percent of voters were ages 17 to 22, which amounted to nearly 21,000 votes, as opposed to 27 percent from the 65-and-older age group. This increase in turnout among youth voters is an exciting turn of events. Like Independents, young voters powered Barack Obama’s victory. Fifty-seven percent of them supported Barack Obama, as opposed to 14 percent for John Edwards and 11 percent for Hillary Clinton.
New Hampshire : In Every Way Different, Yet the Same
Despite different winners for both parties in the New Hampshire primary, the real implications are similar to those in Iowa and positive for Democrats. In New Hampshire , Democrats saw an unprecedented turnout far outpacing the Republicans. More than 280,000 Democrats, Independents, and Republicans turned out to vote in the Democratic primary, as opposed to fewer than 230,000 in the Republican primary. As was the case in Iowa , this turnout is historic and shows the level of interest surrounding the Democratic candidates. Once again, young voters and Independents came out in record numbers in the Democratic primary, showing that new segments of the population are engaged and excited about Democratic candidates. Young voters between the ages of 18 and 24 made up 11 percent of the turnout, meaning that more than 31,000 young voters got out to vote in the primary.
It can’t be forgotten that New Hampshire has been a swing state in the last two presidential elections, and President Bush actually carried the state in 2004. A little more than three years later, 50,000 more voters participated in the Democratic primary than in the Republican primary. It is clear that we have the better field of candidates, and the public is leaning our way.
Super Tuesday, February 5, Could Decide the Nomination
With Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton splitting the first two contests of the primary season, there is no clear front-runner in the race for the Democratic nomination. The lack of an early front-runner makes “Super Tuesday” even more important than in past years. On February 5, Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Utah will hold caucuses or primaries, and the candidate who performs best on this day will likely win the Democratic nomination, as control of 2,075 delegates will be up for grabs. The table below shows the most recent polling from each of these states, but it is important to note that most of these polls were taken before the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary.
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Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008 22 States in Close Democratic Contest |
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Caucus State (delegates) |
Poll Date |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Obama |
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Alaska (18) |
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No current polls |
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Colorado (71) |
Sep 2007 |
29% |
23% |
23% |
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Idaho (23) |
Jul 2007 |
31% |
15% |
33% |
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Kansas (41) |
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No current polls |
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Minnesota (88) |
Sep 2007 |
47% |
16% |
22% |
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North Dakota (21) |
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No current polls |
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Primary State (delegates) |
Poll Date |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Obama |
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Alabama (60) |
Nov 2007 |
46% |
6% |
25% |
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Arizona (67) |
Nov 2007 |
44% |
11% |
14% |
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Arkansas (47) |
Dec 2007 |
57% |
14% |
17% |
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California (441) |
Jan 2008 |
47% |
10% |
31% |
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Connecticut (60) |
Nov 2007 |
45% |
7% |
19% |
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Delaware (23) |
Oct 2007 |
41% |
7% |
17% |
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Georgia (103) |
Jan 2008 |
33% |
14% |
36% |
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Illinois (185) |
Dec 2007 |
25% |
7% |
50% |
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Massachusetts (121) |
|
No current polls |
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Missouri (88) |
Nov 2007 |
36% |
20% |
21% |
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New Jersey (127) |
Jan 2008 |
42% |
9% |
30% |
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New Mexico (38) |
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No current polls |
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New York (281) |
Dec 2007 |
55% |
7% |
17% |
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Oklahoma (47) |
Dec 2007 |
34% |
25% |
15% |
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Tennessee (85) |
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No current polls |
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Utah (29) |
Oct 2007 |
31% |
9% |
18% |
NCEC Expands Its Role with Innovative Targeting Technology
NCEC’s acute awareness of the importance of this election makes us work harder than ever to expand our program of providing every candidate with our state-of-the-art campaign technology and get-out-the-vote targeting. NCEC is using more precise methods to predict voter turnout by analyzing both current and past demographic trends. We’re offering our candidates increased visual representation of the data, which allows campaigns to identify key neighborhoods and households in order to facilitate more direct voter contact. We are offering more dynamic targeting using both polling and updated demographic trend information for revised turnout and vote-goal data, which is updated as the campaign progresses. Further, the applicability of the data is being extended, as it is now tailored for radio media purchase, cable television, and various field activities: mail campaigns, voter identification systems, phone banks, canvassing, and individual household contacts . Innovation is key to staying ahead of the Republicans, and as NCEC leads Democratic campaigns into this election season, our candidates are armed with the most sophisticated tools ever designed to win elections. Without your help, NCEC would not be able to play its leading role in progressive politics
