POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 2/24
Clinton’s Plan
Though there is still a raging debate among Sen. Hillary Clinton’s advisers about how to campaign prior to the March 4 primaries, The Politico outlines Clinton’s “5 point plan” for the next week:
- 1) Run appealing, positive ads.
- 2) Hold events every day that will drive positive news coverage.
- 3) Keep the message clear and personal, not wonky.
- 4) Aim for women, who made her the upset winner of the New Hampshire primary.
- 5) Mix criticism of Obama with positive conversation about herself.
Obama Would Carry Iowa, Clinton Would Lose
A new Des Moines Register poll in Iowa shows Sen. Barack Obama would beat Sen. John McCain in the general election, 53% to 36%.
However, McCain would beat Sen. Hillary Clinton, 49% to 40%.
Iowa is expected to be a competitive swing state this fall.
Nader Will Run
“Ralph Nader is launching a third-party campaign for president,” according to the AP.
“The consumer advocate made the announcement Sunday on NBC’s Meet the Press. He says most Americans are disenchanted with the Democratic and Republican parties, and that none of the presidential contenders are addressing ways to stem corporate crime and Pentagon waste and promote labor rights.”
Meet the Press has the video.
– Sen. Barack Obama, quoted by CNN.
Dispatch from Maryland
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, a supporter of Sen. Hillary Clinton, spoke at St. Mary’s college in Maryland last week and offered a very frank assessment of the state of the Clinton campaign. A Political Wire reader emails a summary:
“Townsend said she expects Sen. Barack Obama to win the Democratic presidential nomination and that Clinton is finished. She believed that the Wisconsin results demonstrated that Clinton’s coalition (voters over the age of 50 and those earning less than $50,000) had fallen apart. When asked why the Clinton campaign had failed, Ms. Townsend had plenty of opinions and she placed significant blame on Bill Clinton and his racially tinged statements in South Carolina. She also felt that Clinton made a tactical error in making “experience and inevitability” her central campaign themes. Townsend argued that Clinton had little more experience than Obama and far less than candidates such as Senators Dodd and Biden. Additionally, making the inevitability claim hurt her when she lost Iowa… Townsend then lamented Clinton’s decision to go negative and question Obama’s readiness. She said that she called the Clinton campaign and advised that they ‘go out on a high note’ but her advice was politely dismissed.”
Democrats Now Favored in IL-11
“House Republican campaign officials — already hindered by a big disadvantage in the number of ‘open’ seats they have to defend this year — suffered a blow Friday in their efforts to hold one that already was particularly vulnerable to Democratic takeover,” according to CQ Politics.
“The GOP now faces an emergency recruiting job in Illinois’ politically competitive 11th District after local officeholder Tim Baldermann, the winner of a competitive primary just two and a half weeks earlier, unexpectedly declined the nomination.”
The Chicago Tribune has more.
“In light of Baldermann’s withdrawal, CQ has changed its rating on the Illinois 11 race to Democrat Favored from No Clear Favorite.”
Shadegg Favored To Retain AZ-3
Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ) pulled an unusual reversal last week “when he revoked a retirement announcement he had made 10 days earlier, a decision he made in response to a heavy lobbying campaign by fellow House Republicans who urged him to change his mind and run for an eighth term,” CQ Politics reports.
As a result, CQ changed its rating back to Republican Favored.
Obama Could Be Helped By Open Primaries
Sen. Hillary Clinton’s “must-win states of Ohio and Texas are no cakewalk for her, largely because independents and crossover Republicans are welcome to vote in their Democratic primaries,” the AP notes.
Obama has “drawn crossover Republicans and independents to primaries in which they are allowed to vote. Ohio and Texas make it easy for them to do so. If they do, it could boost Obama’s vote.”
Key statistic: Among independents, Obama is leading Clinton by 14 percentage points in Ohio and by 13 in Texas.
Clinton Aides Deal With “Mathematical Reality”
“Inside Clinton’s inner circle on Friday, the feeling was that the Thursday night debate in Austin was unlikely to slow Obama’s momentum from 11 straight primary and caucus victories,” the Washington Post reports. “Some supporters said they had discussed how to raise with Clinton the subject of withdrawing from the race should she fail to win decisively on March 4. One option was to wait a day or two and then dispatch emissaries to former president Clinton to urge him to make the case.”
“One adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak freely, said Obama’s 17-point Wisconsin victory on Tuesday had started to sink in as a decisive blow, given that the state had been viewed weeks earlier as a level playing field.”
Said the adviser: “The mathematical reality at that point became impossible to ignore. There’s not a lot of denial left at this point.”
Update: The Clinton campaign responds: “This storyline is nonsense. We are going to be successful on March 4 and Hillary Clinton will be the nominee of our party.”
In Pursuit of Bill Richardson
The New York Times has an excellent behind the scenes look at efforts by Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama to court New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) and hopefully win his backing.
“He is ‘genuinely torn’ about any endorsement, he said, adding that he might offer one next week or perhaps not at all.”
Strickland Worried About Holding Ohio for Clinton
After Sen. Barack Obama’s “decisive victory” over Sen. Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin,Robert Novak says Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D) “was reported expressing doubt to political colleagues about whether he could hold his state for Clinton during the two weeks remaining before Ohio’s Democratic presidential primary March 4.”
“Polls taken before Wisconsin voted gave Clinton a double-digit lead in Ohio, a state necessary to sustain her presidential hopes. A Clinton win there also may be needed for Strickland’s chances to be the vice presidential running mate for either Clinton or Obama.”
Rasmussen: Clinton Ahead in Ohio
A new Rasmussen Reports survey in Ohio shows Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Sen. Barack Obama, 48% to 40%.
Key finding: “In addition to the 12% who are undecided, another 17% of voters say they might change their mind before voting.”
February 25, 2008 at 12:41 am
[...] unknown wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptIn Pursuit of Bill Richardson. The New York Times has an excellent behind the scenes look at efforts by Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama to court New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) and hopefully win his backing. … Read the rest of this great post here Posted by [...]