WINNING HASTERT’S SEAT — What does it mean?
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Democrats Win Hastert’s District, What Does it Mean for 2008?
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries. Democrat Bill Foster defeated Republican Jim Oberweis and captured the House seat long held by former Speaker of the House J. Dennis Hastert. The fourteenth district in Illinois , which Foster won, is traditionally solid Republican, and his victory showcases certain potential trends that are positive for Democrats not only in Illinois but nationwide. NCEC provided the Foster campaign with our targeting, which helped them identify Democrats all over the district and helped produce this unexpected victory. If the trends that led to this victory hold, Republicans are vulnerable all over the country.
What Do the Results Show?
Republicans were no doubt favored to hold on to this district; the makeup of the district should theoretically have favored them, as a large portion of it comprises affluent suburbs and exurbs of Chicago, a portion of the population that formerly supported Republicans overwhelmingly. John Kerry received just 44 percent of the vote in this district in 2004. The Democratic victory in this district is symptomatic of a larger problem facing the GOP: dwindling support in suburban and exurban areas. In previous Election Insiders , we have shown that a large part of Democratic success in 2006 was due to the increased amount of vote share in these areas. Suburban districts such as AZ-05, AZ-08, CO-07, FL-22, NH-02, NY-19, PA-07, PA-08, and TX-22 were all won by Democrats, and these suburban districts accounted for a significant share of the 30 seats won by Democrats in 2006. Barack Obama also showcased some power as a campaigner as he campaigned for Foster, and his immense popularity in Illinois no doubt helped Foster’s cause.
Additionally, the Democratic victory in the fourteenth district also shows that Republicans are increasingly vulnerable in Illinois , which could lead to more House seats for the Democrats. Close races are expected in IL-10 and IL-11, both districts that are far more Democratic than IL-14. John Kerry won the tenth district in 2004, and Democratic candidate Dan Seals gave Congressman Mark Kirk a scare in 2006, winning 47 percent of the vote in an underfunded effort. Seals is back for a rematch, and early polls have suggested that this will be a tight race. Jerry Weller has announced his retirement in the eleventh district, and this open-seat contest represents a great opportunity for Democrats to capture this long-GOP-held seat. In 2006, Democrat Robert Pavich received 45 percent of the vote when he ran against Weller, which is a positive sign that the race will be competitive without an incumbent. The district’s most populous area, Will County , has seen an influx of young suburban families, which could help Democrats. State Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson has announced her candidacy for the Democrats, giving them a well-known, popular candidate in the race.
Republicans Are Vulnerable in Suburban Districts All Over the Country
The results in IL-14 last week suggest that Republicans in suburban districts could be increasingly vulnerable nationwide. If the conditions that produced Bill Foster’s victory hold, Democrats have a strong chance to capture seats in districts such as CT-04, MI-09, NJ-03, and NJ-07—all suburban districts that favor Democrats far more greatly than IL-14 does. The aforementioned districts are all places that John Kerry either won or came extremely close to winning. Republican retirements in NJ-03 and NJ-07 make these districts even more competitive. If the suburban vote continues to shift toward Democrats, Republicans could be in real trouble.
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District |
Democratic Candidate |
Republican Candidate |
Cong ‘04 Dem % |
Pres ‘04 Dem % |
Cong ‘06 Dem % |
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CT-04 |
TBD (Primary Aug ‘0 |
Chris Shays |
47.6% |
53.1% |
48.2% |
|
IL-10 |
Dan Seals | Mark Kirk |
35.9% |
52.8% |
46.6% |
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IL-11 |
Debbie Halvorson |
TBD (Primary March ‘0 |
41.3% |
46.3% |
44.9% |
|
MI-09 |
TBD (Primary Aug 5) |
Joe Knollenberg |
40.4% |
49.2% |
47.2% |
|
NJ-03 |
Jon Adler |
TBD (Primary June ‘0 |
35.3% |
48.7% |
41.2% |
|
NJ-07 |
TBD (Primary June ‘0 |
TBD (Primary June ‘0 |
42.3% |
49.2% |
46.6% |
NCEC Plays a Vital Role in the Democratic Effort
As mentioned above, the Foster campaign was using NCEC data when they were coming up with a strategy for their unexpected upset. We at NCEC are working around the clock to complete targeting for every state and congressional district in the country in order to give Democrats in every race the technical know-how to win in November. Our targeting and consultation is made possible by donations from our supporters. Please contribute today.
