POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 4/15

LA Times/Bloomberg: Clinton Loses Traction in Key States

 

New Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg polls in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Indiana suggests Sen. Hillary Clinton “may not be headed to blockbuster victories she needs to jumpstart her presidential bid.” 

Pennsylvania: Clinton 46%, Obama 41%.

North Carolina: Obama 47%, Clinton 34%

Indiana, Obama 40%, Clinton 35%

Key finding: “One reason Clinton is struggling in Indiana and North Carolina is that a mainstay of her coalition in earlier contests — women — have been defecting. In Indiana, the poll found women split their vote, 35% for each candidate. In North Carolina, they favored Obama, 43% to 36%.”

 

Strategic Vision: Clinton Maintains Lead in Pennsylvania

Political Wire got an advance look at a new Strategic Vision poll in Pennsylvania which shows Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Sen. Barack Obama, 49% to 40%.

Key findings: Clinton is up two points from last week while he is down 2%.  

However, the biggest change is in the general election match-up.  McCain now leads both Democrats. He tops Clinton 47% to 44% and beats Obama 49% to 39%.

 

Obama Floods Pennsylvania With Ads

Just a week before Pennsylvania’s presidential primary, Sen. Barack Obama “continues to vastly outspend Sen. Hillary Clinton on television advertising in the state,” according to the Washington Post. 

“Obama’s bigger budget, which is likely the product of his 2 to 1 edge in fundraising last month, has also enabled him to reach voters through a broad spectrum of cable stations, from the predominately female viewers of the Soap Opera channel, to the younger viewers of MTV, to the conservative viewers of the Fox News channel, to the largely male audiences of ESPN and ESPN2. Clinton’s ads have appeared along with Obama’s on the 24-hour news networks and on stations such as the Food Network, Lifetime and the Family Channel.”

SurveyUSA: Clinton Leads By 14 in Pennsylvania

A new SurveyUSA poll in Pennsylvania finds Sen. Hillary Clinton with a double-digit lead over Sen. Barack Obama, 54% to 40%.

The contest is “not necessarily tightening, nor is it considered a tight race.”

Key findings: “Clinton has a slight advantage among men, just as she has in the past three of four Survey USA polls. She also has a significant advantage among women, which has been consistent through all four polls.”

 

Clinton Will Barely Edge Obama in Pennsylvania Delegates

Even with a victory in Pennsylvania, CQ Politics predicts that Sen. Hillary Clinton will barely beat Sen. Barack Obama in the state’s all important delegate race.

Based on an extensive analysis of the 19 congressional districts in Pennsylvania, CQ projects that Clinton will take home 53 delegates to Obama’s 50 — out of the pool of district-level delegates that are up for grabs on April 22nd. In all, Pennsylvania will send 187 Democratic delegates to the national convention.

 

Has Obama Weathered the Storm?

Political Insider, points to several clear signs Sen. Barack Obama is riding out the storm caused by his “bitter voter” comments last week. 

Bonus Quote of the Day

“The problem was that I just mangled it, which happens sometimes. As a wise older woman who was talking to me the other day said, ‘You misspoke, but you didn’t lie.’”

– Sen. Barack Obama, in a meeting with the editorial board of the Philadelphia Inquirer, on his recent “bitter voter” comments.

 

Landrieu Comfortably Ahead in Lousiana

A new Southern Media and Opinion Research poll in Lousiana finds Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) beating challenger John Kennedy (R), 50% to 38%.

Obama Rapid Response

After Sen. Barack Obama made his ill-timed “bitter voters” comment, Ben Smith noticed a pattern in how he deals with such situations.

“The response was signature Obama: Attack first, sort out the details later, if at all. No apology, no immediate regret, just a sharp counterattack. For a candidate sometimes mocked for being too soft to win a political fistfight, he has shown an uncanny ability to take a punch and then rear back and deliver one in return.”

“When Obama responds this way, it leaves him open to charges that he’s undermining his so-called politics of hope. But, showing remarkable dexterity, he has a knack for using these flare-ups to pivot back to the central theme of his candidacy: that politics is broken, and he knows how to change it.”

Susquehanna Poll: Very Close Race in Pennsylvania

A new Susquehanna Polling and Research poll in Pennsylvania shows Sen. Hillary Clinton barely edging Sen. Barack Obama, 40% to 37%.

Last month, Clinton held a 14 point lead.

Said pollster Jim Lee: “Clinton’s 3-point lead is within the poll’s 4% margin of error, so this race is now a virtual toss-up.”

 

Rice Says She’s Not Interested in Veep Position

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice sought to end speculation Monday that she might be a vice-presidential running mate for Sen. John McCain, the New York Times reports.

Said Rice: “I don’t want to be, don’t intend to be, won’t be on the ticket.”

 

Quinnipiac Poll: Clinton Keeps Lead in Pennsylvania

Sen. Hillary Clinton has stalled Sen. Barack Obama’s drive in Pennsylvania and holds a 50% to 44% lead among likely primary voters, according to a new Quinnipiac poll. 

“There was no noticeable movement in the matchup in polling April 12 – 13, following widespread media reports on Sen. Obama’s ‘bitter’ comments.”

 

SurveyUSA: Clinton Increases Lead in Indiana

A new SurveyUSA poll in Indiana finds Sen. Hillary Clinton with a big lead over Sen. Barack Obama, 55% to 39%. 

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released two weeks ago, Clinton is up 3 points, Obama is down 4 points. 

Here’s where the movement is occurring: Among men, Obama had trailed by 2, now trails by 12, a 10-point swing to Clinton. Among Democrats, Obama had trailed by 12, now trails by 27, a 15-point swing to Clinton. Among voters focused on health care, Clinton had led by 10, now leads by 30, a 20-point swing to Clinton. Among the youngest voters, Obama had led by 19, now trails by 2, a 21-point swing to Clinton.

 

 

Quote of the Day

“I’m going to tell you something: That boy’s finger does not need to be on the button.”

– Rep. Geoff Davis (R-KY), quoted by NBC News, about Sen. Barack Obama. He later issued an apology to Obama, essentially saying he misspoke.

 

Quinnipiac Shows Little Movement in Pennsylvania

The Wall Street Journal has a sneak peak at the new Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania scheduled to be released in the morning. 

“Clay Richards, who runs the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute’s Pennsylvania poll, said he doesn’t expect his poll that will be published Tuesday to show much difference from the last one, which had a Clinton lead of six points. ‘I don’t see that much movement in Pennsylvania myself,’ Mr. Richards said by phone from Harrisburg on Monday.”

 

PPP Poll: Obama Remains Way Ahead in North Carolina

A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds Sen. Barack Obama maintaining his 20 point lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton, 54% to 34%.

The survey was conducted over the weekend suggesting the recent controversy over Obama’s “bitter” comments haven’t eroded his support at all.

Key findings: “Obama leads in every region of the state, including those that are predominantly comprised of rural areas and small towns. Obama also leads across every age group. This poll showed an unusually small gender gap with Obama leading men by 22 points and women by 17 points.”

 

Obama Would Win Michigan, Clinton Would Not

Sen. Barack Obama “holds a small lead over Sen. John McCain in the race for Michigan’s 17 electoral votes, but McCain holds a significant lead over Hillary Clinton,” according to a new EPIC-MRA poll.

In general election match ups, Obama leads McCain, 43% to 41%, while McCain leads Clinton, 46% to 37%.

Key finding: “In a sign that Democrats still hold an edge in Michigan, when poll participants were first asked if they would vote for a Democrat or a Republican for president, without being read the names of any candidates, 43 percent said they were likely to vote for the Democratic nominee, while just 31 percent said they would probably vote for a Republican.”

 

Obama Maintains National Lead

Sen. Barack Obama, “who has come under attack by his presidential rivals for describing small-town voters as ‘bitter,’ seems to be weathering the storm to this point as far as voters are concerned. He maintains a 10 percentage point lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination, 50% to 40%,” according to the latest Gallup tracking poll.

Key finding: “Obama’s support remained strong in tracking interviews conducted on Saturday and Sunday.”

The latest Rasmussen tracking poll shows Obama leading Clinton, 48% to 44%, a trend that “has remained quite stable for the past month or so.”

 

Ex-Lawmakers Hold Onto Campaign Cash

CQ Politics: “PACs or traditional campaign funds of 28 lawmakers-turned-lobbyists have $3.9 million on hand to potentially influence this year’s election with donations to candidates.”

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