POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 5/14
Democrats Pick Up MS-1
Democrats “appeared to regain control of north Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District” as Travis Childers (D) beat Greg Davis (R) in their special election runoff, the Clarion Ledger reports.
Childers victory means he will serve the final months of a term vacated by Roger Wicker. Wicker, a Republican, was appointed to the U.S. Senate after former Sen. Trent Lott resigned in December.
Democrats now have a 37 seat majority in the House of Representatives.
Clinton Cruises to Victory in West Virginia
Hillary Clinton will win West Virginia’s Democratic primary by a wide margin, CNNprojects based on exit polls.
“The result won’t do much to cut into Obama’s delegate lead, but her campaign is hoping a big win will raise doubts about Barack Obama’s electability.”
Ben Smith: “MSNBC’S Keith Olbermann says exit polls show Clinton beating Obama by a two-to-one margin — if that’s the result, somewhat lower than some Clinton backers had hoped.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“All the kitchen table issues that everybody talks to me about are ones that the next president can actually do something about, if he actually cares about it… More likely if she cares about it!”
– Sen. Hillary Clinton, quoted by the Daily Telegraph, in a brief recognition that she might not be the Democratic nominee.
Strategic Vision: McCain Holds Big Lead in Georgia
Political Wire got an advance look at a new Strategic Vision poll in Georgia that shows Sen. John McCain leading Sen. Barack Obama in a general election match up, 54% to 40%.
The survey shows a stark racial divide in the state and finds Jewish voters backing McCain. The poll, which will be released tomorrow, has a margin of error of +/- 3%.
Political Insider: Will Bob Barr put Georgia in play?
Ballot Box: Could Obama win Georgia?
Clinton, Obama Meet in the Senate
David Nather notes Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama met Tuesday on the Senate floor “and the two exchanged one of those half-hug, half arm-clasp greetings.”
“A more intriguing development was the series of intense, one-on-one conversations Obama and Clinton had with both of the Michigan senators – Carl Levin and Debbie Stabenow – who are anxiously awaiting word on whether the Michigan delegation will be seated at the Democratic national convention in August… Both senators also spent time talking to Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida, whose state’s role in the convention is also up in the air.”
But the “chilliest conversation of the day” was between Clinton and Sen. Ted Kennedy who recently said an Obama-Clinton wasn’t possible because Clinton isn’t in tune with the “nobler aspirations” of the American people.
“Kennedy did most of the talking. Clinton mostly stood there, looking stern and a bit hurt.”
Is Georgia Now a Swing State?
Over at Political Insider, it’s discused how former GOP Rep. Bob Barr’s presidential candidacy as a Libertarian might impact the race.
Quote of the Day
“I still hear some dogs barking. I’m for Senator Clinton, but I think the great likelihood is that Obama will be the nominee. As soon as I determine when that is, I’ll send him a check.”
– James Carville, quoted by the Columbia State.
PPP Poll: Obama Holds Solid Lead in Oregon
With a week until Oregon’s primary, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds Sen. Barack Obama ahead of Sen. Hillary Clinton, 53% to 39%.
Key finding: “Our poll showed the war — at 41% — out polling the economy — at 34% — as the biggest issue for Democrats in Oregon. The last state where we saw the war poll remotely that high was in Wisconsin, and that was another state with a small minority population that Barack Obama nonetheless won big. It looks like we’re headed for a repeat performance in Oregon.”
Majority of Democrats Want Obama-Clinton Ticket
A new USA Today/Gallup poll finds that 55% of Democrats want Sen. Barack Obama to choose Sen. Hillary Clinton as his running mate.
Interestingly, just 35% of Democrats say Clinton should drop out, while 55% say both should stay in until the end of the primaries.
Why Won’t Some Candidates Concede?
Looking at history, the Wall Street Journal notes that “office seekers who hang on, even long after the race seems futile, may be hoping to position themselves for a later run or to reshape the party more to their liking. They may be bargaining for the vice presidency, feel pressure from supporters or believe there is an off-chance they will get lucky.”
“But what is clear from 1976 and two more-recent races is that the party took a drubbing when challengers refused to concede and instead pursued the nomination into the convention.”
SurveyUSA: Obama Up By Double-Digits in Oregon
With one week until the primary, a new SurveyUSA poll in Oregon finds Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. Hillary Clinton, 54% to 43%.
Key finding: “Though the results are only slightly more in favor of Obama than SurveyUSA’s most recent track point, released 11 days ago, before results of North Carolina and Indiana were known, there is movement in Oregon among women. 5 weeks ago, Clinton led by 7 among Oregon women. Today, Obama leads by 7.”
SurveyUSA: Clinton Holds Wide Lead in Kentucky
With the primary one week away, a new SurveyUSA poll in Kentucky finds Sen. Hillary Clinton way ahead of Sen. Barack Obama, 62% to 30%.
Clinton’s lead is effectively unchanged from the last three polls over the past month.
Caveat: “It is unclear to what extent Democrats in Kentucky will conclude, before Primary Day, that the Kentucky contest has significance. Some may conclude that the nomination fight is over, and that the contest has no meaning. Others may see it as having great symbolic importance, and the opportunity to make a statement.”
Democrats Look to Take MS-1
Democrats and Republicans may have been more focused on Mississippi than on the West Virginia presidential primary, CQ Politics reports. After all, the primary’s outcome was already predicted, while the outcome of the Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District special election was much less certain.
If Travis W. Childers (D) beats Greg Davis (R), “he would be the third Democrat in recent weeks to take over a Republican-held seat” in a special election.
Interestingly, the New York Times notes Republicans “in this mostly white and very conservative district are trying to make the vote more a referendum on Senator Barack Obama than on the candidates themselves.”
CQ has a good backgrounder on the MS-1 district.
All Eyes on West Virginia
CQ Politics: “An expected victory for New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in Tuesday’s primary in West Virginia might have the anticlimactic feel of a badly defeated football team scoring a meaningless late game touchdown that the winning team didn’t try very hard to contest.”
Nonetheless, CNN notes that in the expectations game, Sen. Barack Obama set the bar high for his rival: “I think President Clinton said that they are going to get 80% of the vote. We’ll take him at his word.”
Obama Leads McCain as Bush, GOP Hit Record Lows
“Americans are gloomier about the direction of the country than at any point since 1992, and Democrats have matched their biggest advantage in 25 years as the party better able to deal with the nation’s main problems,” according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
“Overall, Democrats enjoy a 21-point advantage over Republicans as the party best-equipped to handle the nation’s problems.”
However, in a general election match up, Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. John McCain, 51% to 44%, indicating McCain “continues to elude some of the anger aimed at his party and at President Bush.”
President Bush got a record low 31% approval rating in the poll.
