More Visitor Logs Coming

Here’s a holiday news dump: The White House will release additional visitor logs with more than 1,600 names later today.

Rudy’s Rumor Mill

Late last week, the big scoop was that Rudy Giuliani (R) would not run for governor and instead had decided to challenge Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY).

But we’ve heard nothing from Giuliani since that “news” broke.

New York Observer: “So here we are, five days later, and everyone is still trying to figure out what Rudy wants to do in 2010 — except now, the focus is on the Senate race, not the governorship. This is exactly how he likes it, of course. He can maintain this holding pattern for weeks, maybe even months, as long as enough of us play along. But the longer he holds out, the more it seems like we’re all being had — again.”

Another Run for McAuliffe?

Terry McAuliffe (D), “the millionaire businessman who ran unsuccessfully for Virginia governor this year, is negotiating with investors and a U.S. automaker to lure a factory to southern Virginia — raising speculation that the ambitious Democrat is not done with state politics,” the Washington Post reports.

“McAuliffe’s continuing attention to Virginia suggests that another run for office, possibly for governor in 2013, is possible. And a focus on job creation in rural Virginia could help erase the perception that McAuliffe is a carpetbagger with big ideas but without deep ties to the state. It would also help him build support in areas where Democrats typically don’t perform well.”

Too Early to Judge Obama?

Joe Klein: “Democrats have tough first years in the presidency… There is a reason for that. Democrats come to office eager to govern the heck out of the country. They take on impossible issues, like budget-balancing and health care reform… They get lost in the details… The real evaluation of Obama’s debut must wait for the results of the two biggest problems he’s tackling — his decision on Afghanistan and the Congressional attempt to pass health care reform. And even here, it will be difficult to render judgment immediately.”

Coakley Maintains Lead in Massachusetts

With the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate fast approaching in Massachusetts, a new Rasmussen Reports survey finds Martha Coakley (D) leading with 36%, followed by Rep. Michael Capuano (D) at 21%, Alan Khazei (D) at 14% and Stephen Pagliuca at 14%.

The primary is on December 8 with the special election scheduled for January 19.

Goddard Leads in Arizona

A new Cronkite/Eight poll in Arizona finds Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) leading Gov. Jan Brewer (R) in next year’s gubernatorial race, 47% to 28% with 21% still undecided.

Meanwhile, in a possible U.S. Senate match up, the poll shows Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) ahead of Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano (D), 50% to 41%.

Sandoval Would Win Three-Way Nevada Race

If Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman runs as an independent candidate for Nevada governor, he would pull more support from Rory Reid (D) than Brian Sandoval (R) in a three-way match up, a Nevada News Bureau poll shows.

Sandoval leads with 35%, followed by Goodman at 28% and Reid at 16%.

Goodman has not decided yet whether to run for governor, and if so, as a Democrat or independent. A poll last week showed Goodman and Reid running even in a possible Democratic primary.

Quote of the Day

“We did not have a terrorist attack on our country during President Bush’s term.”

– Former White House Press Secretary Dana Perino, in an interview on Fox News.

Read more…

New Challenger for Gillibrand?

“Democratic sources say that former Tennessee Rep. Harold Ford Jr. — who relocated to New York City after his unsuccessful Senate bid in 2006 — has been talking about the possibility of running against vulnerable rookie New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand,” Politico reports.

Ford “has reportedly told associates that he’s skeptical about the idea.”

Increased Support for More Troops in Afghanistan

Gallup: “Americans over the last two weeks have become slightly more likely to favor sending more U.S. troops to Afghanistan, and slightly less likely to favor a reduction in forces. At this point, 47% of Americans would advise President Obama to increase the number of U.S. troops — either by the roughly 40,000 recommended by the commanding general in Afghanistan or by a smaller amount — while 39% would advise Obama to reduce the number of troops.”

Vitter Goes Shopping

Heard on the Hill: “In what has to be one of HOH’s favorite sightings since the time that former Sen. Joseph Biden browsed Victoria’s Secret, an HOH tipster reported seeing none other than Sen. David Vitter wandering around the lingerie department of the downtown Filene’s Basement on Saturday.”

Impeachment Panel Seeks More Details

The panel taking up the impeachment resolution against South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R) said “it wants detailed answers about the governor’s secret trip to Argentina last June,” reports The State.

“The committee, in its initial meeting, discussed whether to call witnesses or take sworn affidavits, meaning members of Sanford’s staff may have to recount the events that lead up the the governor’s disappearance. The committee also voted to expand the scope of its review to consider the 37 ethics violations lodged against Sanford last week. Those charges stem from an investigation in to Sanford’s travel and campaign spending.”

Where Obama is Losing Support

Public Policy Polling agrees that President Obama is not losing support among independents.

“On our national survey in June Obama had an 82% approval rating with Democrats. Now it’s 83%. He had a 46% approval rating with independents. Now it’s 47%. No real change on either of those fronts. But with Republicans he’s dropped from an 18% mark to just 10%. That shift is what put his approval rating below 50% — he’s gone from a small amount of crossover support to a very small amount of crossover supports.”

Documentary on Bush’s Military Service

“Documentary filmmaker and longtime Michael Moore collaborator Meghan O’Hara is currently working on a feature-length documentary about George W. Bush’s military service in the Texas Air National Guard,” reports the New York Observer.

Holbrooke Goes Skiing

Just as President Obama’s new Aghanistan policy is set to be unveiled next week, Ben Smith reports Special Envoy Richard Holbrooke has left for a ski vacation.

“Holbrooke’s absence seems to confirm what has been whispered for months: That he has not occupied the central role on Afghanistan strategy that he had once been expected to take, and that although — or perhaps because — he’s maintained his strong relationship with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, his relationship with the White House leaves something to be desired.”

Feingold Leads Thompson in Possible Match Up

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin finds Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) safely in front of former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) in a U.S. Senate match up, 50% to 41%.

The problem for Thompson: “Wisconsin voters don’t really like him anymore. 45% have an unfavorable opinion of him to just 38% who view Thompson positively.”

However, this finding conflicts with a poll released early last month that showed Thompson edging Feingold.

Fenty Faces Uphill Fight for Re-Election

A new Clarus Research poll in Washington, D.C. finds that Mayor Adrian Fenty (D) could have a tough fight for a second term. Just 34% of voters want to see Fenty re-elected in 2010, while 53% said they want somebody new.

In a hypothetical two-way Democratic primary, Council Chairman Vincent Gray beats Fenty, 41% to 37%.

Gillibrand Faces Tough Race

A new Zogby IVR poll finds Rudy Giuliani (R) just edging Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) in a potential 2010 match up, 45% to 43%.

In another potential match-up, Gillibrand holds a slight lead over former Gov. George Pataki (R), 43% to 38%.

If they were to face off in a Republican primary, likely voters would pick Giuliani over Pataki, 72% to 28%.

Santorum Will Campaign in South Carolina

Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) is headed to South Carolina next month for a two-day campaign swing, according to The Hotline.

Santorum has been “openly toying” with a presidential run in 2012 and “acknowledged that a trip to Iowa in September was designed to gin up interest in his own political future.”

Said Santorum: “When you give a speech in either Iowa or New Hampshire, as a Republican or a Democrat, people pay attention.”

Why Are Republicans So Fixated on Reagan?

First Read: “The Cold War ended some 20 years ago… Income-tax rates are at historically low levels… And does anyone remember what a “Contra” is? It’s a lot like how it took Democrats generations to kick their Kennedy and FDR habits. Can the GOP keep playing the Reagan card in a world that’s changed so much since his presidency? Did you know that the youngest person to have cast a ballot for Reagan in 1984 is now 43 years old? And that, by 2012, that person will be 46?”

“It’s amazing what everyone in the conservative movement now applies to Reagan. As we and others have pointed out, Reagan himself might not have passed this purity test when he was governor of California or even president (remember his tax increases, the deficits he racked up, and his amnesty for illegal immigrants?). A Bush has run for president FOUR of the last SIX presidential elections, and yet that name apparently is now a four-letter word with GOP activists. They need someone else to rally around. So in the absence of someone currently, the gravitation is Reagan. We get it on one level. But the nostalgia doomed the Democrats for years because the hardest thing to do in politics is look favorable against a ghost. It can’t be done.”

Palin Has Big First Week

Sarah Palin’s Going Rogue sold 700,000 copies — a number that includes pre-orders — in its first week of release, the AP reports.

“Few nonfiction books have debuted so well. In 2004, Bill Clinton’s My Life sold more than 900,000 copies in its first week.”

Obama’s First State Dinner

“The most sought-after invitation in Washington — for tonight’s state dinner for the prime minister of India, the first state dinner hosted by President Obama and First Lady Michelle — arrived in the mail a little over a week ago,” Politics Daily reports.

“But no one is complaining about the short notice. Some 400 guests are expected for the party, the most elaborate entertaining the First Couple have done to date.”

ABC News says “the complete guest list, under lock and key until this afternoon, will be scrutinized once it is released later today for celebrity figures and big donors perhaps being repaid for campaign support by receiving the golden ticket.”

Nonetheless, the Washington Times reports that top Republican lawmakers were not invited.

Tough Position for Democrats on Health Care

Nate Silver: “I don’t particularly expect a boost in the Democrats’ numbers if they pass a health care bill: the plan, after all, has become somewhat unpopular. Their numbers might even get a little worse. But I’d expect a larger drop in their numbers if they fail to pass health care. Then, you’re getting something close to the worst of both worlds: the people who don’t like health care are still going to blame you for making the effort, but the people who do like the plan will become despondent and wonder what the whole point of electing Democrats to the Congress was in the first place.”

Turmoil at the RNC

Politico: “Trevor Francis, communications director of the Republican National Committee, abruptly resigned Monday, and two Republican strategists familiar with the situation said he was pushed out because Chairman Michael Steele didn’t feel he was getting enough credit for the GOP’s electoral success earlier this month.”

Schwarzenegger Picks Lawmaker as His Number Two

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), “risking a confirmation fight, announced Monday that he will appoint Republican state Sen. Abel Maldonado to fill the vacant lieutenant governor’s job,” the Sacramento Bee reports.

Schwarzenegger unveiled his pick during a taping of the Jay Leno Show.

Maldonado “has been one of the Republican governor’s few GOP allies in the Legislature. He provided a key vote this year to help push through tax increases and a budget plan over the objections of most Republican lawmakers.”

His appointment to the slot left open by the election of John Garamendi (D) to Congress earlier this month “presents an interesting dilemma for the Democratic-controlled Legislature and Republican lawmakers who want the seat themselves.”

President to Announce Afghanistan Policy

President Obama is expected to address the nation next Tuesday night to announce his new Afghanistan policy. McClatchy says the plan will send an additional 34,000 troops.

Obama held a two-hour war council meeting last night to finalize his thinking.

Ben Smith notes the White House “has told the story of the long Afghan deliberations in part through a series of Flickr images, released after each meeting.”

“The latest symbolism: Budget Director Peter Orszag is now in the picture, second from the right, his presence signaling growing concerns on the Hill and in the White House about the cost of the war, and/or a new avenue of pushback against Pentagon requests.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

“There ain’t going to be no money for nothing if we pour it all into Afghanistan.”

– House Appropriations Chairman Dave Obey, in an interview with ABC News.

Young Voters Hold Key to Democrats Future

A new Project Vote study shows both why Democrats are worried about next year’s midterm elections and optimistic about the long term trends for their party.

This revolves around two key findings about turnout of young voters:

For the past seven election cycles, the national turnout rate in mid-term elections averaged 15 percentage points lower than the preceding presidential election with the steepest decline represented by younger voters.

Since the 2000 presidential election, young voter turnout has increased at a rate of about 30% per election.

Bachmann Wonders Why Democrats Dislike Her

In an interview with the St. Cloud Times, Rep. Michelle Bachmann (R-MN) is confused about why she’s the target of so many Democratic attacks.

Said Bachmann: “I grew up a Democrat in a Democrat family. My husband and I both worked on Jimmy Carter’s presidential campaign. The first time I ever came to Washington was to dance at Walter Mondale’s inaugural ball. It was a thrill for my husband and me, and we were both happy to work on behalf of Walter Mondale and Jimmy Carter. We really believed in them when we were in college. So in some ways I don’t understand why the Democratic Party would be opposed to me, because I stand for the same values that my parents stood for when we were Democrats.”

Palin Visits Billy Graham

Sarah Palin “took a detour from her book-signing tour Sunday to dine with Billy Graham,” the Charlotte Observer reports.

Said son Franklin Graham: “He’s followed her career and likes her strong stand on faith. Daddy feels God was using her to wake America up.”

Graham’s son also confirmed his father got a call earlier this month from President Obama to set up a meeting.

The Politics of Skin Color

A new study finds that voters perceive a candidate to have lighter skin color when they agree with him on the issues.

From the abstract: “For evaluations of Barack Obama, the extent to which people rated lightened photographs as representative of him was positively correlated with their stated voting intentions and reported voting behavior in the 2008 Presidential election. This effect persisted when controlling for political ideology and racial attitudes.”

Democrats Will Be Hurt If No Health Care Bill Passes

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds the political repercussions for Congressional Democrats of not passing a health care bill could be severe.

Democrats currently lead Republicans 46% to 38% on the generic Congressional ballot. But when asked how they would vote if no health care bill is passed, respondents split 40% to 40%.

Analysis: “Most voters aren’t following this debate really closely and don’t understand the nuances of it all. At the end of the day voters are likely to see this as either a bill was passed or it was not. In some sense that should get the Blanche Lincolns and Mary Landrieus of the world in line- they’re probably going to face just as much trouble back home whether there’s a public option in there or not. But failing that Democrats would still be better off, at least for next year’s election, with a weaker bill than no bill at all.”

Quote of the Day

“Walk alongside in whatever capacity possible… Same kind of model that Jesus exhibited in the Bible.”

– Doug Hampton, in an interview with ABC News, on the role Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) wanted for him as his chief of staff.

Palin Liked by Iowa Republicans

The Des Moines Register Iowa Poll finds Sarah Palin “could expect a lot of support in Iowa’s Republican caucuses if she launched a campaign for the 2012 presidential nomination.”

The first public poll to test Palin’s favorabilty in the leadoff nominating state found 55% of all Iowans hold an unfavorable opinion of Palin but 68% of Republicans “like what they see, making her a credible candidate for the 2012 caucuses should she decide to run for president.”

That Was the Easy Vote

The party line vote in the U.S. Senate over the weekend was actually the easiest part of the health care reform effort. The debate over the next month will feature the best and worst of politics. It will be very exciting to watch.

Because Democrats have “little maneuvering room” to get a bill through, the New York Times notes White House and their Congressional allies “are stepping up overtures to select Senate Republicans — especially Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins — in hopes of winning their ultimate support.”

McClatchy notes many lawmakers already consider the bill “a golden opportunity to win long-sought projects and local aid for their constituents.”

Of course, as the New York Daily News reports, Republicans are also plotting to kill the bill “with stall tactics and a blizzard of amendments aimed at picking off centrist Democrats.”

Moore to Announce Retirement

Rep. Dennis Moore (D-KS), “a Democrat who confounded the GOP by winning six consecutive elections in a heavily Republican district, will not seek re-election next year,” the Kansas City Star reports.

So far, only eight House Democrats have announced their retirements. In what could be a tough election year for Democrats, the party cannot afford many more.

Dobbs Considers Bid for Public Office

Now that he’s left CNN, Lou Dobbs said he is considering career options including possible runs for the White House or U.S. Senate, Reuters reports.

Said Dobbs: “I am ruling nothing out… I have come to no conclusions and no decisions. Do I seek to have some influence on public policy? Absolutely. Do I seek to represent and champion the middle class in this country and those who aspire to it? Absolutely. And I will.”

Trancredo Will Back McInnis for Governor

Top Colorado Republicans began lining up behind gubernatorial hopeful Scott McInnis (R), the Denver Post reports.

Josh Penry (R), once a candidate himself, endorsed his former GOP rival at a news conference Sunday. And later today, former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R), who had vowed to run for governor, will instead announce his support for McInnis, “largely clearing the path to the GOP nomination.”

From Book Tour to Presidential Campaign

The Chicago Tribune notes “it’s an old ritual put to an updated use: The traditional author’s book tour transformed into a vehicle for setting up to launch a campaign for the White House. Where presidential hopefuls once traveled the country buttering up party bosses and courting county chairmen, today’s would-be candidates often choose a different approach — the national book tour.”

But this isn’t another article about Sarah Palin; it’s about Mike Huckabee.

“‘Team Huck’ rolls into the bookstore like a NASCAR pit crew, red uniform shirts adorned with the corporate logos of Mike Huckabee’s website, his speaker’s bureau, his publisher, and ‘Huck’ emblazoned on their epaulets. They strip the protective wrappings off a large, heavy object — a podium they install at all such appearances. Mike Huckabee doesn’t sit at tables. He stands, as a president would, even to sign books.”

Biden Moves Ahead of Castle in Delaware

A new Susquehanna Polling & Research poll in Delaware finds Attorney General Beau Biden (D) leading Rep. Mike Castle (R) by five points, 45% to 40%.

In April, Castle led by 21 points.

According to the pollster, the shift “may be a result of negative publicity [Castle] received in the state after casting a ‘no’ vote for President Obama’s health care reform bill in the U.S. Congress.”

Still Waiting on the CBO

A Senate leadership aide tells NBC News that “it’s highly unlikely Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will have cost estimate today from the Congressional Budget Office for his health-care bill.”

McCain Asks Staffers to Stay Quiet

NBC News reports that Sen. John McCain “has specifically asked his former aides not to do interviews rebutting Palin’s charges in her book — to avoid escalating the feud between her and the campaign staff. Most are complying with his wishes, hoping it will die down.”

But one key player targeted by Palin in the book points to emails that contradict Palin’s version of events.

Said the former McCain campaign aide: “It is unrecognizable at every instance. There is not one truthful account as it relates to any conversation I ever had with her.”

Harkin Says Senate Will Work Weekends

Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) said that the Senate will work every weekend in December to pass the health care reform bill by Christmas, The Hill reports.

“Harkin said Democrats expect Republicans will try to stall the debate by asking for the entire bill to be read on the Senate floor. If that happens, Harkin said, the majority party is likely to use a procedural maneuver to keep the Senate in session this weekend.”

Said Harkin: “If the Republicans want to stay here this Saturday and Sunday to read the bill, then let them stay here.”

Harkin added that Democrats would hold a “live quorum,” where the sergeant at arms requests the presence of all absent senators.

Paterson Runs Behind Everyone

A new Siena poll of New York voters finds that Gov. David Paterson (D) trails Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) by nearly 60 points in a potential Democratic primary, trails former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) by more than 20 points, and for the first time trails former Rep. Rick Lazio by three points.

Said pollster Steven Greenberg: “While it’s true that the Governor’s new commercials had only been airing for less than a week while Siena was polling, it seems clear that he’s going to have to spend a lot of campaign funds very early to even have a chance of improving the measurements by which voters judge David Paterson.”

Quote of the Day

“By the way, I don’t know if we call him Levi — I hear he goes by the name Ricky Hollywood now, so, if that’s the case, we don’t want to mess up this gig he’s got going… Kind of this aspiring, aspiring porn — the things that he’s doing. It’s kind of heartbreaking.”

– Sarah Palin, in an interview on Oprah, about the father of her grandson.

The Lloyd’s Prayer

From an email making its way around Wall Street this morning:

Our Chairman,
Who Art At Goldman,
Blankfein Be Thy Name.
The Rally’s Come. God’s Work Be Done
On Earth As There’s No Fear Of Correction.
Give Us This Day Our Daily Gains,
And Bankrupt Our Competitors
As You Taught Lehman and Bear Their Lessons.
And Bring Us Not Under Indictment.
For Thine Is The Treasury,
The House And The Senate
Forever and Ever.
Goldman.

Obama Goes Silent

CQ Politics notes that since President Obama landed on five Sunday news programs on September 20 — amid a great clamor that he was overexposing himself — the president has infrequently taken questions in public

The president’s last full-dress U.S. press conference was nearly four months ago, a prime-time appearance on July 22.

An Uphill Climb for Palin

The buildup to her new book hasn’t eased Sarah Palin’s political challenges as she weighs a presidential bid in 2012: Just over half of Americans in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll have an unfavorable opinion of her overall, as many say they wouldn’t consider supporting her for president and more – six in 10 – see her as unqualified for the job.

Nonetheless, Walter Shapiro shows how Palin could still win the Republican presidential nomination.

Backing him up: A new Rasmussen Reports survey finds that 59% of Republican voters say Palin “shares the values of most GOP voters throughout the nation.”

Beneath the Congressional Favorability Numbers

“It’s a commonly accepted fact that Congressional Democrats are unpopular but Congressional Republicans are even more unpopular,” Tom Jensen writes.

“That’s true but it shouldn’t be taken as an indication that Democrats are going to be fine in 2010 because there’s a pretty significant group of the electorate that dislikes both parties and they’re overwhelmingly planning to vote Republican next year because they think it at least provides an opportunity for change.”

Flashback Quote of the Day

“I have no plans to leave whatsoever. The rumors that I’m about to leave are false. The reports that I’m about to leave are wrong. I have no plans to leave.”

– White House counsel Greg Craig, in an interview just one month ago.

Obama Approval Rises in North Carolina

New polls from Civitas and Public Policy Polling show President Obama’s approval rates on the uptick in North Carolina.

Tom Jensen: “This improvement in Obama’s standing means that a year after he took the state in the Presidential race by the smallest of margins he is in more or less the exact same position now that he was then. North Carolinians are evenly divided in their feelings about Obama and if he had to stand before the voters in the state again today it would probably be just as close as it was last year.”

Should the Democrats Panic?

Nate Silver looks at the recent Gallup poll showing Republicans taking a lead in the generic congressional ballot and concludes “that between the pressures of the jobs situation and the health care debate, the Democrats are in fairly bad shape.”

“Certainly, if I were the Democrats, I’d be adopting a fairly defensive posture, putting money into defending seats — especially those held by non-Blue Dog incumbents — rather than getting cute and trying to pick off more than a handful of potentially vulnerable Republican seats. I’d also be thinking about policies — like a jobs package and financial regulation — that tap a little bit into the populist spirit and might result in somewhat awkward Republican positioning.”

“So, should the Democrats be panicking? Yeah, maybe a little. But the fundamentals — particularly the poor labor situation and the Republican enthusiasm advantage — should be the reasons for their concern, rather than the results of any one particular poll.”

Not as Bad as Edwards

Matthew Continetti, the author of The Persecution of Sarah Palin and a big defender of the former Alaska governor, makes this point in the Wall Street Journal:

“An October Gallup poll put Ms. Palin’s favorable number at 40%, her lowest rating to date. In a November Gallup survey, 63% of all voters said they wouldn’t seriously consider supporting her for the presidency. Yet Ms. Palin isn’t as unpopular as John Edwards…”

Update: A Political Wire reader notes that October’s Wall Street Journal/NBC poll had Palin’s overall favorable rating at 27%, even lower numbers than in that Gallup poll.

Palin Doesn’t Mention Johnston in Book

Maybe Levi Johnson really does have a dark secret about Sarah Palin that she doesn’t want revealed.

Though Palin’s new memoir takes shots at many people — and “describes heart-wrenching anguish about her teen daughter’s pregnancy playing out before a national audience” – WCBS-TV notes “the 413-page tome doesn’t contain a single reference to the father of her granddaughter, soon-to-be Playgirl model Levi Johnston.”

Key 9/11 Suspect to Face Trial in New York

Here’s a story that will certainly jumble the politics of next year: The New York Timesreports that Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, “the self-described mastermind of the Sept. 11 attacks, and four other men accused in the plot will be prosecuted in federal court in New York City.”

Due to a recently passed federal law, none of the detainees can be brought to the United States for at least 45 days.

The Washington Post notes that officials expect “that up to 40 of the detainees at Guantanamo Bay will ultimately be tried in either federal court or military commissions.”

RNC Nixes Abortion Coverage

After news broke that the RNC’s health insurance covered abortions, Politico reports the party will opt out of such coverage.

Said RNC Chairman Michael Steele: “Money from our loyal donors should not be used for this purpose. I don’t know why this policy existed in the past, but it will not exist under my administration. Consider this issue settled.”

Until the announcement, the RNC’s plan had covered elective abortion — a procedure the party’s own platform calls “a fundamental assault on innocent human life.”

Leadership by Letting Some Vote Against You

Charlie Cook praises the political skills of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel in getting the health care bill passed last week.

An important point: “The key to victory was that Pelosi and Emanuel understood that their relatively new House majority is built on a layer of conservative-leaning districts won under perfect conditions in 2006 and 2008. And the two actively discourage members from some of those districts from voting in ways that would be construed as out of tune with their constituents.”

Whether it’s the health care or cap-and-trade legislation, the Democratic leaders “managed to get the bill passed with just over the minimum votes necessary while giving maximum cover to their potentially vulnerable incumbents.”

Obama To Focus on Deficit Reduction Next Year

President Obama “plans to announce in next year’s State of the Union address that he wants to focus extensively on cutting the federal deficit in 2010 – and will downplay other new domestic spending beyond jobs programs,” Politico reports.

“The president’s plan, which the officials said was under discussion before this month’s Democratic election setbacks, represents both a practical and a political calculation by this White House.”

“The big question for Obama – and the country – is whether the sudden concern about deficits will be more rhetoric than reality once his first State of the Union address concludes.”

Perry Ahead by Double Digits in Texas

A new Rasmussen Reports survey finds Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) leads Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) by 11 points, 46% to 35%, in the 2010 Republican Primary gubernatorial race in Texas.

Corzine Headed Back to Wall Street?

Politicker NJ: “The rumor in financial circles is that Gov. Jon Corzine could wind up as CEO of Bank of America. Business Week has mentioned it, as did Charlie Gasperino on CNBC today. There is no confirmation or denial from the governor’s staff.”

The Upside of Being Away

First Read reports that while White House aides worry that President Obama’sextensive foreign travel hurts his approval numbers at home, “it’s not the worst thing that Obama is going to be thousands of miles and more than a dozen time zones away over the next week.”

“First, the health-care debate in the Senate (over the public option and abortion) is going to be incredibly messy, as the sausage-making process always is. While the president effectively parachuted in over the weekend to help pass the House bill, note that involvement came at the end of the process — not the middle, where the Senate currently is. Second, next week will be Palin-palooza, with her Oprah interview on Monday, her book going on sale Tuesday, and the book tour starting Wednesday.”

Did Hoffman Concede Too Soon?

It appears the special election race in New York’s 23rd congressional district is not yet over.

Though Conservative Doug Hoffman conceded the race to Bill Owens (D) on Election Night after being told he had barely won his stronghold of Oswego County, it turns out that wasn’t true.

The Syracuse Post-Standard reports that a recanvassing shows that Owens’ lead has narrowed to just 3,026 votes over Hoffman. And in Oswego County, “where Hoffman was reported to lead by only 500 votes with 93 percent of the vote counted election night, inspectors found Hoffman actually won by 1,748 votes.”

“The new vote totals mean the race will be decided by absentee ballots, of which about 10,200 were distributed… Under a new law in New York that extended deadlines, military and overseas ballots received by this coming Monday (and postmarked by Nov. 2) will be counted. Standard absentee ballots had to be returned this past Monday.”

Owens “was quickly sworn into office on Friday, a day before the rare weekend vote in the House of Representatives. His support sealed his party’s narrow victory on the health care legislation.”

Well Traveled President

CBS News reports President Obama’s trip to Asia will bring his total to 8 foreign trips and 20 countries since becoming president.

“The only other president to come close to Mr. Obama’s first-year-in-office globe-trotting numbers is President George H. W. Bush, who took 7 foreign trips to 14 countries.”

In addition, as Politico notes, Obama is stopping in Alaska on his way to Asia. It’s the only state he hasn’t been to since he declared his run for president.

Nationalizing Midterms Could Hurt Many Democrats

Nathan Gonzales warns that the White House’s desire to nationalize the 2010 elections could hurt many Democrats as some of the most vulnerable “represent districts won by Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) last year, and those Members may not be all that excited about a national referendum on Obama’s job performance. Furthermore, nationalizing the 2010 midterms could throw fuel on an already inflamed GOP electorate.”

“The White House plans to nationalize the 2010 elections on its own terms by putting the president front and center in order to minimize the party’s losses… The plan is to use the 2002 elections – when Republicans gained eight House seats and two Senate seats in President George W. Bush’s first midterm elections — as a blueprint. But there is an underlying assumption that Obama will be at least as popular next November as he is this year. And Democrats appear to want the turnout benefits that a national election may bring without any of the backlash.”

Coakley Leads Senate Race in Massachusetts

A new Suffolk University poll in Massachusetts finds Martha Coakley (D) leading the Democratic special election race for U.S. Senate with 44%, followed by Steve Pagliuca (D) with 17%, Rep. Michael Capuano (D) at 16% and Alan Khazei (D) with 3%. The remaining 20% were undecided.

Possible wildcard: An astounding 93% of Democratic voters couldn’t pinpoint the exact date of the Dec. 8 primary — and 73% didn’t even know in which month the primary will occur.

On the Republican side, Scott Brown (R) leads Jack Robinson (R), 45% to 7%, with 47% of GOP voters still undecided.

Lieberman Rebounds in Connecticut

One more interesting finding from today’s Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut: Voters approve, by a 49% to 44% margin, of the job Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) is doing.

He gets 74% to 20% approval from Republicans and 52% to 40% approval from independent voters, but Democrats disapprove 62% to 31%.

Not surprisingly, by a 51% to 25% margin, Connecticut voters say Lieberman’s views on issues are closer to the Republican Party than to the Democratic Party. There is agreement on this among voters in all parties.

Portman Leads for U.S. Senate in Ohio

For the first time, Rob Portman (R) is ahead of the two Democrats in the 2010 race for Ohio’s U.S. Senate seat, according to a new Quinnipiac poll.

Portman leads Jennifer Brunner (D), 38% to 34%, and tops Lee Fisher (D), 39% to 36%.

Also for the first time, Ohio voters disapprove, by a 50% to 45% margin, of the job President Obama is doing.

Said pollster Peter Brown: “The Democratic wave that swept through Ohio in 2006 and 2008 may be cresting. The Democratic lead in the Governor’s and Senate races has evaporated and for the first time President Barack Obama is under water in the most important swing state in the country.”

Tancredo Mulls Run for Governor

Former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R) said he “was hit with an avalanche of interest” in his possible run for governor in Colorado, the Denver Post reports.

Tancredo had been a strong supporter of Josh Penry (R), who recently dropped out of the race.

Said Tancredo: “I had said that if Josh Penry wasn’t in the race, I would be. I know if I got into this thing, most of the party elite would not be happy.”

Dodd Slides Again in Connecticut

Sen. Christopher Dodd (D-CT) is still in serious trouble in his re-election race with 53% of voters saying he does not deserve re-election, a new Quinnipiac poll finds.

Connecticut voters disapprove, 54% to 40%, of the job Dodd is doing, compared to a 49% to 43% disapproval in September.

In general election match ups, Dodd loses to Rob Simmons (R), 49% to 38%, to Linda McMahon (R), 43% to 41%, and to Tom Foley (R), 47% vs. Dodd 40%.

Said pollster Douglas Schwartz: “After inching up in the polls for months, Sen. Christopher Dodd is sliding back down again on job approval. He continues to struggle with independent voters as 60 percent disapprove of the way he is handling his job.”

Update: Colleen Flanagan, spokeswoman for Connecticut Democrats, emails: “We’ll see lots of polls over the course of this campaign, some accurate, and some not… We’re not taking this poll particularly seriously, and Chris Dodd will continue to do his job every single day on behalf of the people he was elected to represent.”

Perry Says Obama “Hell-Bent” on Socialism

Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) accused President Obama of “punishing” Texas and being “hell-bent” on turning the United States into a socialist country, reports Politico.

Said Perry: “This is an administration hell-bent toward taking American towards a socialist country. And we all don’t need to be afraid to say that because that’s what it is.”

Perry also accused the Obama administration of intentionally dumping illegal immigrants from other western states in Texas.

Strategery for Sale

Former Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and former National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, “whose reputations for strategic acumen were badly damaged” during the Bush years, are launching a strategic consulting firm, reports TPM.

In September, the RiceHadley Group LLC was registered as a business in California, under a San Francisco address.

Powell Advised Obama to “Take Your Time”

In a radio interview this morning, retired Gen. Colin Powell says he advised President Obama “not to be rushed into a decision” on sending additional troops to Afghanistan ” because this one is the decision that will have consequences for years to come.”

Said Powell: “This is a very difficult one for him. And it isn’t just a one-time decision. This is the decision that will have consequences for the better part of his administration. So Mr. President, don’t get pushed by the left to do nothing; don’t get pushed by the right to do everything. You take your time and you figure it out. You’re the commander-in-chief and this is what you were elected for.”

Read more…

Pawlenty to New Hampshire

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) will make “the first visit by any potential 2012 presidential candidate to New Hampshire” next month, reports NHPoliticalReport.com.

Graham Censured by Local Republicans

Republicans in Charleston County, SC censured their own Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), reports The State.

Said the resolution: “Sen. Lindsey Graham in the name of bipartisanship continues to weaken the Republican brand and tarnish the ideals of freedom, rule of law, and fiscal conservatism.”

The resolution notes Graham supported the bank bailout and “has shown a condescending attitude toward his constituents” opposing his stance on amnesty for illegal aliens.

Interestingly, the National Journal ranked Graham as the 15th most conservative U.S. Senator earlier this year.

Anti-Incumbent Sentiment Grows

A new Pew Research survey finds just 52% of registered voters would like to see their own representative re-elected next year — approaching levels not seen since early October 2006 (50%) and 1994 (49%) when congressional control switched parties.

Support for incumbents is particularly low among independent voters. Only 42% of independent voters want to see their own representative re-elected — also nearing an all time low.

Despite the voter unrest, overall opinion of President Obama has not soured — his job approval rating of 51% is essentially unchanged since July.

Nothing to Hide

Porn star Stormy Daniels talks to Marie Claire about her transition to politics as a U.S. Senate candidate from Louisiana.

Q: How much will your résumé be a factor?

A: It’s actually starting to work in my favor — I have nothing to hide. A sex tape of me isn’t going to pop up and shame me; there are 150 of them at the video store.

Q: Do you think you’re more qualified than Senator Vitter?

A: Absolutely not. But in one movie, I did play a Secret Service agent marooned on an island controlled by North Korea. I butt heads with dictator Kim Jong-il and come out on top.

An Obama Floor?

According to the Gallup daily tracking poll, President Obama’s approval rate has hit 50% ten different times this year but has never fallen below the 50% line.

First Look at Palin’s Book

Copies of Sarah Palin’s Going Rogue shipped out in advance of the November 17th release date to some of Palin’s associates — and they’re talking to Mark Halperinwho makes these observations:

• The book is just five chapters long — but “they are very, very long.”
• The is some “score settling with McCain aides” and “names will be named.”
• There is “a hearty bashing of the national media.”
• Palin describes her upbringing as a maverick and talks about “the importance of faith in her life.”

Halperin also notes “don’t look for hefty policy prescriptions” or an index in the book.

Chafee Would Win Three Way Race

An Alpha Research poll in Rhode Island conducted for former Sen. Lincoln Chafee (I) shows him leading a three-way race for governor next year. He released the poll to “help quell rumors he is not long for the race.”

On one match up, Chafee leads with 37%, followed by Patrick Lynch (D) at 24% and Rory Smith (R) at 15%.

In another, Chafee leads with 36%, followed by Frank Caprio (D) at 34% and Rory Smith (R) at 8%.

Palin-palooza

Sarah Palin launches her much-anticipated book tour for Going Rogue with an appearance on Oprah on Monday. Then, according to her Facebook page, she’ll start a seven-day, 13 city tour.

For those wondering if this is the start of a presidential bid, First Read notes that 11 of the 13 stops are in battleground states and nine of the stops are in congressional districts won by McCain in last year’s presidential election.

Bonus Quote of the Day

“We need to put a bill on the president’s desk and he needs to sign it, so at the State of the Union he’s not explaining why we haven’t done health care.”

– Bill Clinton, quoted by the Wilmington News Journal, to Democrats at a Delaware fundraising dinner.

Obama Meets Again on Afghanistan

President Obama meets this afternoon with his national security team for the eighth time to discuss what to do in Afghanistan.

The New York Times reports Obama “is to consider four final options in a meeting with his national security team on Wednesday… The options outline different troop levels, other officials said, but they also assume different goals — including how much of Afghanistan the troops would seek to control — and different time frames and expectations for the training of Afghan security forces.

An announcement on the decision is now not expect until Thanksgiving week at the earliest.

First Read concludes Obama “doesn’t like his options; it’s why he keeps asking for more plans from his military advisers.”

Meanwhile, according to a new CNN/Opinion Research survey, 49% of Americans think President Obama is taking too long to decide whether to increase U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan while 50% do not.

Palin Book Not a Good Deal

Daily Finance has a great piece on the economics behind Sarah Palin’s new book,Going Rogue, and suggests the publisher may not be making any money.

In fact, “the math suggests that it may be the readers who go rogue on Palin — and on HarperCollins’s plans to right the wrongs of its dismal book sales.”

Helping the GOP’s Recruiting Pitch

First Read makes a good point noting that today’s Gallup poll showing Republicans leading Democrats in the congressional ballot “couldn’t have come at a better time for the GOP, as they put the final sale on prospective candidates for the House, in particular. There are many House GOP leaders who would truly like to make a run at the majority in 2010, but they need more quality candidates in more races. A poll like this is a boost to their sales pitch.”

Prime Minister Criticized for Sloppy Note

“It was a simple letter from the most powerful man in Britain. In an age of big political staffs, computers and spell-check, it was written and signed in the prime minister’s hand, meant to convey heartfelt condolences to a mother who recently lost her son on the battlefields of Afghanistan,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“But the note contained apparent spelling mistakes. And it left an embarrassed Prime Minister Gordon Brown on the defensive, facing a public uproar that forced him to apologize Tuesday for his sloppy handwriting, while scrambling to defend a war increasingly unpopular with the British public.”

The note was first published by The Sun.

Pessimism Grows Among Americans

A new AP-Gfk poll finds 56% of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, a dramatic turnaround from April when 48% thought the country was going in the right direction and 44% it was on the wrong track.

DeMint Seeks Term Limits

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) introduced an amendment to the Constitution that would limit Senators to three six-year terms and House members to three two-year terms, the Washington Times reports.

However, Senate leaders said DeMint’s bill “had a zero chance of becoming law, mostly because of a general lack of interest and the high hurdles to amending the Constitution.”

“It takes a two-thirds vote of approval in both chambers to pass a constitutional amendment and then it must be ratified by three-fourths of the states. The last one to succeed — the 27th Amendment that delays pay raises for members of Congress until after the next election — was proposed in 1789 as part of the Bill of Rights but was not ratified by the states until 1992.”

Quote of the Day

“I may go across Iowa, but it will be to get somewhere.”

– Sen. John Thune (R-SD), quoted by CNN, downplaying speculation he may run for president.

Kasich Catches Strickland in Ohio

A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio finds Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and John Kasich (R) in a dead heat, 40% to 40%, in their race for governor. Strickland held a 10 point lead in September.

Said pollster Peter Brown: “Obviously a lot has changed: the Governor’s own ratings have gone down more than the challenger’s have come up. Moreover, when voters are asked who could do a better job handling the state budget and rebuilding the state economy they say Kasich. We still have a year to go, but Kasich is in much better shape than one could have imaged earlier this year.”

Republicans Take Lead in Generic Ballot

For the first time this year, a new Gallup poll of registered voters found more would vote for the Republican candidate than said they would vote for the Democratic candidate if elections for Congress were held today, 48% to 44%.

“The overall results would predict a likely strong Republican showing if the House elections were held today. Though the registered-voter results reported here speak to the preferences of all eligible voters, voter turnout is crucial in determining the final outcome of midterm elections. Gallup will not begin to model likely turnout until much closer to the 2010 elections, but given that Republicans usually have a turnout advantage, if normal turnout patterns prevail in the coming election, prospects for a good Democratic showing appear slim. Of course, the elections are still nearly 12 months away and conditions could shift back in the Democrats’ favor over this time.”

Obama’s Best Speech Ever

President Obama’s speech at Fort Hood may go down as one of his best ever.

The president was able to balance his duties as Commander in Chief while consoling a nation in the aftermath of a terrible tragedy. That he was able to do this while taking away the focus on the shooter’s religion was even more impressive.

It was one of those speeches that makes you especially proud to be an American.

Marc Ambinder: “I guarantee: they’ll be teaching this one in rhetoric classes. It was that good. My gloss won’t do it justice. Yes, I’m having a Chris Matthews-chill-running-up-my-leg moment, but sometimes, the man, the moment and the words come together and meet the challenge. Obama had to lead a nation’s grieving; he had to try and address the thorny issues of Islam and terrorism; to be firm; to express the spirit of America, using familiar, comforting tropes in a way that didn’t sound trite.”

Chuck Todd: “That’s going to be a speech that’s remembered and quoted from for quite some time; struck a balance of commander and consoler; not easy.”

The video and transcript are below.

Read more…

Follow Olympia?

NBC News reports that when former President Clinton walked into the Capitol this afternoon to meet with Senate Democrats about health care reform, he ran into Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME).

At nearly the same time reporters when asked Clinton what he would tell Democrats, he said, “I’m gonna tell them Olympia is right. They ought to follow Olympia.”

The context suggested he “was probably more joking and courteous, than serious.”

Blumenthal Listening Again

Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D), “the state’s attorney general since 1990 and once Connecticut’s fastest-rising political star,” was asked if he’ll run for governor now that Gov. Jodi Rell (R) is not seeking re-election, reports the New Haven Independent.

“He answered it the way he does every four years — vaguely, with lots of wiggle room. He said he has ‘no plans’ to seek the 2010 Democratic nomination — for now. But he’s ‘listening’ to people urging him to run.”

Stewart on the Health Care Debate

Last night, Jon Stewart reviewed last weekend’s health care vote in the House. Just priceless.

Read more…

Bonus Quote of the Day

“So, we’ve decided that we are going to trade our Lieberman for their Lieberman.”

– President Obama, quoted by Politico, after his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Christie Says No Funds for Transition

In a radio interview this morning, New Jersey Gov.-elect Chris Christie (R) dropped a bomb: There are no transition funds for his incoming administration.

Said Christie: “Interestingly, the state didn’t fund the transition. They didn’t put any money in the budget for a transition so we need to talk about making sure that we get that squared away.”

Obama Hurt Deeds in Virginia

Republican pollster Glen Bolger notes that while President Obama was not the deciding factor in the Virginia governor’s race, he ended up hurting Creigh Deeds (D) more than he helped him.

In fact, by a 55% to 35% margin, voters thought it was best to elect a governor who would serve as a check and balance to Obama.

“Concern about his policies overreaching permeated to a gubernatorial campaign and helped widen the size of McDonnell’s win. It allowed the campaign to focus on issues that hadn’t been working in recent years for Republican candidates. Concern about Obama’s policies on spending, taxes, and jobs allowed McDonnell to thoroughly dominate those issues. The checks and balances message is a key one, but the bigger lesson about Obama’s impact on Virginia is that his policies have put fiscal and economic messages back into play for Republicans.”

Snowe Vulnerable to Primary Challenge

Public Policy Polling suggests Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) “could have a pretty hard time getting nominated for another term in the Senate as a Republican.”

“There are now more folks in her party who disapprove than approve of Snowe’s job performance. 46% of GOP voters think she’s doing a bad job to 40% who give her good marks.”

Against a generic conservative primary challenger, Snowe would lose 59% to 31%.

Dunn Steps Down from White House Post

White House communications director Anita Dunn “will step down from her post at the end of the month and Dan Pfeiffer, her deputy, will take over,” according to The Fix.

“Dunn, a longtime Democratic media consultant, took over the job on an interim basis earlier this year when Ellen Moran abruptly left the post to take a job at the Commerce Department. Dunn will remain as a consultant to the White House on the communications and strategic ends.”

Congressman Skips Son’s Wedding for Vote

Rep. Steve King (R-IA) “skipped his son’s Saturday afternoon wedding in Iowa in favor of the contentious debate over the public insurance option and abortion funding,” Roll Call reports.

Said King: “Not being here to cast a vote against this health care bill was never an option. I couldn’t live with myself if the bill passed by just one vote, and I wasn’t present.”

King added that voting against the bill was “the best gift I could give my son.”

The Palin Fantasy

David Frum: “Palin supporters have constructed an alternative reality in which their heroine is wildly cheered by the American yeomanry, and despised only by a small coterie of sherry-drinking snobs. No contrary evidence, no matter how overwhelming and uncontradicted, can alter this view: not the collapse in Palin’s support in just 5 weeks in 2008, not the statistical studies that show her as the only vice presidential nominee in ticket to have hurt her ticket, not her rampant unpopularity with American women, not her own flinching from a second encounter with the Alaskan electorate.”

In case you were wondering, Palin is back on Twitter as she prepares to begin her book tour next week.

Sanford Likely to Survive

With South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R) “showing no sign that he plans to quit,”CNN reports “only one option may be left for critics who want him gone: impeachment.”

“But legislators on both sides of the aisle in South Carolina believe that the chances of ousting Sanford with an impeachment vote are slim, unless new evidence arises showing that the governor broke the law or abused his power by secretly leaving the state to visit his mistress.”

Reid to Bring Up Health Care Next Week

“Senate Democratic leaders are still pushing to bring up their health care reform bill next week, even though the gambit comes with risks as they race against the clock to get a measure passed before the end of the year,” Roll Call reports.

“By aiming to bring up the bill next week,” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid “appears to be calculating that the public relations dangers of suspending debate for the weeklong Thanksgiving recess do not outweigh the need to get debate rolling, given the time-consuming roadblocks Republicans are expected to throw up.”

What to watch: “The timing of any Senate bill depends in large part on when the Congressional Budget Office gives Reid its cost estimate of the bill, something Democratic aides said is expected by the end of this week.”

Quote of the Day

“I’m sure there are a lot of people sitting in the shade at the Aspen Institute — my brother being one of them — who will tell you what the ideal plan is. Great, fascinating. You have the art of the possible measured against the ideal.”

– White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, quoted by the Boston Globe.

Clinton Heads to the Hill

Former President Bill Clinton will address Senate Democrats today about health care, CNN reports.

“A constant refrain from Democratic leaders is that wavering Democrats must heed what they say is a lesson of the Clinton administration: fail to pass a health care reform bill, and congressional Democrats will suffer on Election Day.”

First Read: “What’s particularly interesting is that Clinton has strong ties to the Senate centrists who could very well decide the fate of the health-care bill in the Senate. Clinton was governor when Ben Nelson served as governor of Nebraska; Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor just happen to represent Clinton’s home state of Arkansas; and Clinton and Joe Lieberman used to be VERY close personally and ideologically — all before the Lewinsky scandal. In particular, what kind of advice does Clinton give to Lincoln and Pryor? What does he say to Lieberman (if the Connecticut senator ends up attending)? During the ‘08 campaign, Clinton found his stride campaigning in, well, red America — in places that are similar politically to Arkansas, Nebraska, Indiana, etc. Clinton’s at his best when he’s giving OTHERS political advice, and he excels at framing an argument better than just about anyone on the political stage today.”

Poll Suggests Rell Was Vulnerable

Perhaps this is the reason Connecticut Gov. Jodi Rell (R) announced yesterday she would not to run for re-election next year: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz (D) just six points behind Rell in a general election match up, 46% to 40%.

In a Democratic primary matchup, Bysiewicz leads the field with 26%, followed by Ned Lamont (D) at 23% and Dan Malloy (D) at 9%. No other contender tops 3%.

Americans Divided on Health Care Legislation

Gallup: “Americans are evenly split on the potential impact of new health care legislation, should it ultimately be passed into law. Forty-one percent say a new health care bill would make the U.S. health care system better in the long run, while 40% say it would make things worse.”

Behind the Scozzafava Endorsement

The Washington Post has a great piece on how the White House orchestrated a campaign to get Dede Scozzafava (R) to endorse Bill Owens (D) in the wild special election in New York’s congressional district.

“The conservative movement’s third-party candidate, Doug Hoffman, expected her support but, she said, the newcomer accountant ‘had no integrity.’ Plus, the Democrats were so nice! They called. They sympathized. They made her feel good about tossing her support to Bill Owens, who — with her help — became the area’s first Democratic representative in more than a century.”

Meanwhile, the Albany Times Union reports Scozzafava was stripped of her GOP leadership post in the New York Assembly.

No Photo of Barack and Bibi?

First Read: “The biggest event on President Obama’s schedule today is a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at 7:00 pm ET. The Israelis usually love to get their American presidential photo-ops, but Netanyahu won’t get one unless the White House releases an official photograph. Why? There is no pool spray or media moment between the two at all. Part of the reason is that the White House only agreed to meet Netanyahu in the last 48 hours, despite Netanyahu’s pleas for a meeting for weeks.”

Club for Growth Backs Rubio

St. Petersburg Times: “It would have been bigger news if the Club for Growth didn’t endorse Marco Rubio for U.S. Senate, but the endorsement announced today is still a big deal for Rubio. The PAC could funnel millions of dollars toward the Miami Republican’s campaign. The group concluded that A) Rubio can beat Charlie Crist in the primary and B) that he can beat Kendrick Meek in the general.”

Republicans Tied in Race to Challenge Boxer

A new Los Angeles Times/USC poll in California shows Carly Fiorina (R) and Chuck DeVore (R) each with 27% support among Republican primary voters in their race to face off with Sen. Barbra Boxer (D-CA) next year.

Pelosi Got It Done

First Read: “Speaker Pelosi deserves her due on Saturday’s vote. She had said she’d get this out of the House as soon as she had the votes. By going when she did, with another Dem in her pocket (the new seat in NY-23) and keeping the House in session over the weekend, she got it done. And she even quelled a potential uprising among the most pro-choice members of her caucus. It was an impressive performance; she had her share of backseat drivers in all parts of official Washington, and she pulled it off. By the way, the NEXT health care vote in the House should be easier to get, given that what comes out of conference (the “opt out” or the trigger) will likely be a tad easier for moderates to support. That said, the abortion issue could still end up a problem at some point in this process. But the way she navigated the bill over the weekend should re-shape the C.W. on her a tad.”

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Times notes, the Speaker is a lot more pragmatic than her opponents admit. “Pelosi’s impulse to tilt at windmills disappeared and her pragmatic heritage came to the fore. That’s what enabled Pelosi to build a majority, one compromise at a time, including the pivotal deal with antiabortion Democrats.”

As we’ve long said, Pelosi is one of the most underrated politicians of our time.

Republicans Have a Growing Women Problem

Politico notes that the “growing schism between the Republican Party’s ascendant right wing and its shrinking moderate core has clear gender undertones” which “raises fresh questions about the GOP’s ability to recruit, elect and even tolerate the sort of moderate women who used to be part of its ruling mainstream.”

Key statistic: There are just 17 Republican women in the House today.

“And with less than a year to go before the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans have enlisted just 13 more to challenge Democratic incumbents. Even if all of them won, Republicans would have at most 30 women in the House — about half the number Democrats now have.”

Crunch Time

“The countdown is on. Excluding the Veterans Day and Thanksgiving recesses,” theNew York Times notes “lawmakers have just about four-and-a-half weeks to line up 60 votes in favor of the Senate’s plan to overhaul the health care system, hash out the differences — and there are plenty — between the two chambers’ versions and get a bill to President Obama’s desk by the end of the year.”

The first step: Senate Democrats hope to get a CBO score for the merged Senate bill later this week.

Meanwhile, the New York Times reports the White House, “growing concerned that the Congressional timetable for passing a health care overhaul could slip into next year, is stepping up pressure on the Senate for quick action.”

About the Length of the Health Care Bill

Despite intense criticism of the size of the House health care bill — 1,990 pages! — a simple page count vastly overstates the actual length of bill.

For instance, a word analysis shows the bill is actually less than one-half of one percent of the entire U.S. Code. It’s essentially as long as a Harry Potter novel.

Low Turnout Didn’t Cause Democratic Losses

Charles Franklin: “The shifts in outcomes between the 2008 presidential and 2009 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia were driven far more by shifts in voting preferences among groups than by changes in turnout across those groups. Only age groups show consistently substantial changes in relative share of the electorate. Vote preference, in comparison, shows quite large shifts between election years. While one narrative of the 2009 election was changing turnout motivation, this turns out to be substantially false. Instead, changes in candidate preference drove the Republican wins in both New Jersey and Virginia.”

Fox News Off Limits

“At least one Democratic political strategist has gotten a blunt warning from the White House to never appear on Fox News Channel, an outlet that presidential aides have depicted as not so much a news-gathering operation as a political opponent bent on damaging the Obama administration,” the Chicago Tribune reports.

The strategist said the message was, “We better not see you on again.”

“In urging Democratic consultants to spurn Fox, White House officials might be trying to isolate the network and make it appear more partisan. A boycott by Democratic strategists could also help drive the White House narrative that Fox is a fundamentally different creature than the other TV news networks.”

Just a Matter of Time

If you look at the age breakdown of polling data showing support for gay marriage, it’s clear that younger people are much more supportive than older people. Even in states normally considered hostile to gay rights, there is still a significant age difference: For instance, 18-29 year-olds in Alabama, for example, are still more supportive of gay marriage than people 65 and older in Massachusetts.

Tipping Point?

Kim Strassel: “On Jan. 20, Barack Obama began a race against time. The White House knew its liberal agenda would prove unpopular in many parts of the country represented by Democrats. So long as the president looked strong, those Blue Dogs and freshmen and swing-state senators would stick. Show them any sign of weakness, however, and rattled Dems would begin to care more about their own re-elections than they did their president.”

“Tuesday, the White House hit that tipping point.”

House Democrats Line Up Votes

House Democrats “are scrambling” to secure votes to pass President Obama’s health care reform effort, “working to soothe last-minute concerns from rank-and-file Democrats ahead of a make-or-break vote,” the AP reports.

Voting is set for Saturday on the 10-year, $1.2 trillion legislation.

The Washington Post says party leaders “were struggling” to “contain uprisings on the hot-button issues of abortion and immigration that have left them little margin for error as they attempt to push through a massive health-care reform bill this weekend.”

First Read: “The next 48 hours are going to be wild, but considering the country’s focus on the tragedy to Ft. Hood, the battle will take place mostly behind the scenes and out of the media spotlight.”

Unemployment Rate Hits 10.2%

“U.S. unemployment rose by more than expected in October to hit its highest level in more than 26 years and employers cut more jobs than forecast, a sign the labor market continues to struggle as the economy emerges from its deep recession,” theWall Street Journal reports.

“The unemployment rate, calculated using a survey of households as opposed to companies, rose by 0.4 percentage point to 10.2%, the Labor Department said Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast an increase to 9.9%.”

Interestingly, ABC News notes public opinion on the economy “has not moved” over the last year. But the question is “how long Obama’s got until it goes up, or he goes down – possibly with his party in tow.”

Stewart Spoofs Glenn Beck

The perfect way to start your day: Jon Stewart makes fun of Glenn Beck.

Read more…

Republicans Descend on Iowa

“It is harvest season in Iowa. For Republicans who want to challenge President Barack Obama in 2012, though, it is time to start planting seeds,” Bloomberg reports.

Tim Pawlenty, Mike Huckabee, and George Pataki all have planned visits before the end of the year. Sarah Palin is considering one as well.

“If it all seems early — the next presidential election is three years away — consider that Huckabee, who won his party’s 2008 Iowa caucuses, had been to the state five times by this point in 2005.”

Strategic Vision Vanishes

Nate Silver notes polling firm Strategic Vision has been very quiet since thecontroversy broke about their methodology and accusations that they possibly faked results.

“Strategic Vision vehemently denied my interpretation of the evidence and made public threats to sue me. But no lawyer has contacted me, and in fact, Strategic Vision has not conducted any further public polling since that time.”

Feinstein Still Considering Run for Governor

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) said “she will base a decision on whether to run for California governor next year largely on the solutions the announced candidates put forward to deal with the state’s fiscal problems,” the AP reports.

Republicans have three candidates running for governor: Steve Poizner (R), Meg Whitman (R) and Tom Campbell (R).

Democrats have no announced candidate so far, though Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) has formed an exploratory committee.