Quote of the Day

“I think that the election will be substantially closer than the two polls that came out this morning. When you add the two conservatives together we clearly beat Romney,” Mr. Gingich said. “I think Romney’s got a very real challenge trying to get a majority at the convention.”

– Newt Gingrich, quoted by the Wall Street Journal, adding that the GOP presidential race is “going to be a straight-out contest for the next four or five months.”

Romney Headed for Big Win in Florida

A new NBC/Marist poll in Florida shows Mitt Romney on his way to a decisive victory in the state’s GOP presidential primary.

Romney leads Newt Gingrich by 15 points, 42% to 27%, followed by Rick Santorum at 16% and Ron Paul at 11%. Just 4% said they were undecided.

A new American Research Group poll shows Romney leading Gingrich by 11 points, 43% to 32%, followed by Santorum at 11% and Paul at 8%.

Romney’s Lead in Florida Looks Insurmountable

Nearly every Florida poll shows Mitt Romney with a solid lead in the GOP presidential primary.

A new Miami Herald/Tampa Bay Times poll shows Romney at 42%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 31%, Rick Santorum at 14% and Ron Paul at 6%.

Said pollster Brad Coker: “What does Gingrich need to do? I would say Romney would need to implode. If there’s no 11th hour surprise, this race is looking right now like it’s over.”

How Rich is Mitt Romney?

Associated Press: “Add up the wealth of the last eight presidents, from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama. Then double that number. Now you’re in Romney territory. He would be among the richest presidents in American history if elected — probably in the top four.”

Going for the Kill

Mitt Romney unleashed a very effective political ad  targeting Newt Gingrich in Florida which consists only of a clip of Tom Brokaw from “NBC Nightly News” on Jan. 21, 1997.

See more…

Cain Endorses Gingrich

Herman Cain threw his support to Newt Gingrich in the GOP presidential race, theWashington Post reports.

“The move by the former GOP candidate and tea-party favorite comes three days before the Florida primary, at a moment when Gingrich is badly in need of something to rekindle the momentum he gained in the wake of his South Carolina primary victory.”

Said Cain: “had it in my heart and mind a long time. Speaker Gingrich is a patriot. Speaker Gingrich is not afraid of bold ideas.”

More Polls Give Romney the Lead in Florida

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida shows Mitt Romney leading Newt Gingrich among Republican primary voters by eight points, 40% to 32%, followed by Rick Santorum at 15% and Ron Paul at 9%.

A new War Room Logisitics (R) poll shows Romney leading Gingrich by 10 points, 40% to 30%, with Santorum at 15% and Paul at 6%.

Polarization in Obama’s Approval at Historic Highs

Gallup finds that the historically high gap between partisans’ job approval ratings of President Obama continued during his third year in office, with an average of 80% of Democrats and 12% of Republicans approving of the job he was doing.

In fact, that 68 point partisan gap is tied for the fourth highest dating back to the Eisenhower administration. Only George W. Bush’s fourth, fifth, and sixth years in office showed higher degrees of political polarization.

Romney Converted His Father-in-Law After He Died

Gawker: “Two readers have sent us confirmation that Edward Davies, Mitt Romney’s militantly atheist father-in-law, was indeed posthumously converted to Mormonism by his family, despite the fact that when he was alive he regarded all religions as ‘hogwash.’”

The Limits of an Anti-Media Strategy

The CNN Republican presidential debate went very poorly for Newt Gingrich, and one reason was his inability to land a decisive blow against debate moderator Wolf Blitzer. The Los Angeles Times notes that unlike past moderators, Blitzer refused to “let Gingrich off the hook” and received some decisive support from Mitt Romney.

It is also noteworthy that Blitzer did not begin the debate with a question of his own, instead turning to the audience and social media for questions throughout the debate.

Paul Approved Racist Newsletters

Ron Paul has denied writing racially-charged pamphlets he published during the 1990s but the Washington Post reports “people close to Paul’s operations said he was deeply involved in the company that produced the newsletters, Ron Paul & Associates, and closely monitored its operations, signing off on articles and speaking to staff members virtually every day.”

Said a former secretary in his company: “It was his newsletter, and it was under his name, so he always got to see the final product… He would proof it.”

GOP Primary Has Hurt Romney

The most interesting finding in the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll is that the Republican presidential candidates are in net-negative territory when it comes to favorability.

First Read: “Romney was exposed in two ways in the poll – (1) he has a conservative problem staring him right in the face. That hasn’t changed. Any time base conservatives — very conservative voters, Tea Partiers, Southerners, feels there’s a viable alternative to Romney, they rally around that person; we’ve seen this phenomenon for months. And (2) The primary has done damage to Romney. He cannot afford a long primary. If this thing goes to June, that would be very problematic.”

“He’s already in a bad position. George W. Bush, John McCain, and Bob Dole were all in primary fights and ALL were a net-POSITIVE at this time in the election cycle. In the past 20 years in the poll, no one who went on to be the major party nominee of either party with a net-negative at this point – except John Kerry, and we all know how that turned out. Clearly, Romney is looking like he’s getting his momentum back, but he has fundamental problems for the general. The primary has done him no good.”

GOP Debate Reaction

An aggressive Mitt Romney came out swinging at Newt Gingrich and didn’t stop until he had him wobbling against the ropes.  With the lead in most polls and just five days until the Florida primary, he very likely finished off his main rival. It was a superb performance by Romney. Gingrich was terrible.

That said, every moment Romney spends talking about blind trusts and his taxes is a win for Democrats. The longer the Republican primary continues, the worse his appeal is to swing voters. Romney knows this and needs to clinch the nomination as quickly as possible.

Rick Santorum had his best debate yet and scored many points against both Gingrich and Romney. Ron Paul was hilarious but largely irrelevant to the main conversation on the debate stage.

Obama Says He Wants Re-Election Badly

President Obama signaled an aggressive tact for his early re-election campaign in an ABC News interview.

“How much do you want it?” Diane Sawyer asked.

“Badly, because I think the country needs it,” Obama replied.

He added: “Whoever wins the Republican primary is going to be a standard bearer for a vision of the country that I don’t think reflects who we are. I’m going to fight as hard as I can with every fiber of my being to make sure that we continue on a path that I think will restore the American dream.”

Clinton Ready to Leave Politics Behind

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton “definitively said she wants out of politics,” ABC Newsreports.

“During a town hall meeting with State Department employees this morning Clinton said she is ready to step off ‘the high wire of American politics.’ She said she’s paying no attention to the battle for the Republican presidential nomination and hasn’t watched any of the debates.”

Gingrich Lands Support of Former Colleague

Not many of Newt Gingrich’s former House GOP colleagues support his presidential bid, but the Voice of San Diego found one who does: Former Rep. Duke Cunningham (R-CA), who is in prison for conspiracy and tax evasion.

Cunningham sent a message to Gingrich: “Newt, a voice out of the past. Down but not out and still fighting. First I do not want anything from you but have been watching the debates. I have 80% of inmates that would vote for you. They might not be able to but their extended families will.”

Romney Tax Returns Differ from Ethics Forms

Some investments listed in Mitt Romney’s 2010 tax returns — including a now-closed Swiss bank account and funds located in overseas tax havens — were not explicitly disclosed in the personal financial statement he filed last August, the Los Angeles Times reports.

“The Romney campaign described the discrepancies as ‘trivial’ but acknowledged Thursday afternoon that they are undergoing an internal review of how the investments were reported and will make “some minor technical amendments” to Romney’s financial disclosure that will not alter the overall picture of his finances.”

MSNBC notes that while Romney’s tax returns “have produced no revelations about any improper dealings on Romneys’ part, they have continued to raise questions about how and why some of his multiple overseas investments were made in the first place, and why there were not more fully reported on Romney’s financial disclosure forms.”

Dole Unloads on Gingrich

National Review has the brutal statement from former Sen. Bob Dole (R-KS):

“I have not been critical of Newt Gingrich but it is now time to take a stand before it is too late. If Gingrich is the nominee it will have an adverse impact on Republican candidates running for county, state, and federal offices. Hardly anyone who served with Newt in Congress has endorsed him and that fact speaks for itself. He was a one-man-band who rarely took advice. It was his way or the highway.”

He adds: “In my run for the presidency in 1996 the Democrats greeted me with a number of negative TV ads and in every one of them Newt was in the ad. He was very unpopular and I am not only certain that this did not help me, but that it also cost House seats that year. Newt would show up at the campaign headquarters with an empty bucket in his hand — that was a symbol of some sort for him — and I never did know what he was doing or why he was doing it, and I’m not certain he knew either.”

Majority Would Vote Out Every Member of Congress

The latest NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll shows most Americans agree on one thing: 56% of registered voters say they would vote out every member of Congress if there were a place on the ballot to do so.

Support is consistent across the ideological spectrum — with 55% of liberals, 55% of moderates, and 58% of conservatives all feeling the same way.

Said pollster Bill McInturff: “We found the one area in which all people in the country agree.”

Gingrich Still Leads Romney Nationally

Despite recent Florida polls which show Mitt Romney opening up a lead over Newt Gingrich in that state’s upcoming Republican primary, the latest Gallup tracking poll shows Romney continuing his fall.

Gingrich now leads Romney nationally by six points, 31% to 25%, with Rick Santorum and Ron Paul both at 13%.

Barney Frank Getting Married

Rep. Barney Frank’s (D-MA) office has confirmed to NECN that the retiring 71-year-old lawmaker is marrying his longtime partner, Jim Ready, in a Massachusetts ceremony. A date has not been set.

If Frank were to get married before he leaves office in January, he would be the first congressman in a same sex marriage.

Money Well Spent?

Just published: Money Well Spent?: The Truth Behind the Trillion-Dollar Stimulus, the Biggest Economic Recovery Plan in History by Michael Grabell.

The author concludes the stimulus package did some good and saved as many as 3 million jobs but the political legacy of the bill may be its most lasting effect.

Why Introverts May Make Better Presidents

Rick Stengel: “Campaigning, by its very nature, places a premium on an extroverted persona. Candidates are meant to clap people on the back, bound onstage and then deliver a passionate stump speech. No one wants to see a shy candidate on the podium who looks as if he’d rather be in a room by himself. But campaigning is not governing, a task for which a more introverted style might have advantages. Research suggests that extroverted leaders are more likely to make quick and sometimes rash decisions, while introverted leaders tend to gather more evidence and are slower to judgment.”

Video Shows Senator Calm as He’s Detained

A security video of Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) at a Nashville International Airport security checkpoint doesn’t show him being “irate,” as officials asserted in an incident reports when he refused a pat down.

Tennessean: “An incident report describes the police response as encountering ‘a passenger being irate.’ But videos released by the Metro Airport Authority late Wednesday show Paul entering the security line at 7:57 a.m. and then alternately sitting and standing in a glass cubicle while being watched by authorities. Paul appears to make a few phone calls as well. Paul is shown being escorted by an airport official at 9:04 a.m. Paul rebooked his flight and later went through security without incident.”

See more…

Why Rubio Won’t Be VP Pick

Reuters reports that while Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) might check a lot of boxes for the Republican Vice President nomination — “telegenic, Hispanic and a fiscal conservative who has been embraced by the Tea Party” — his financial troubles could be problematic in the vetting process.

“In 2008, despite earning a declared $400,000 — including his $300,000 salary from the Miami law firm Broad and Cassel — Rubio failed to pay down the principal on his home for several months, according to Florida campaign finance disclosures. During the same period he did not make payments on a $100,000-plus student loan from his days at the University of Miami, the disclosures said… Rubio’s handling of his personal finances contrasts sharply with the image of him on his Senate website, which highlights Rubio’s efforts to prevent Washington from ‘piling up debt.’”

Brewer’s Book Soars Up Bestseller List

Getting into a public argument with President Obama apparently does wonders for book sales: Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer’s book, Scorpions for Breakfast, is now at #177 on Amazon’s bestseller list.

(I’m sure she didn’t plan this just to boost book sales – FVM)

Perry Approval Plunges in Texas

A new Dallas Morning News poll finds Gov. Rick Perry’s dismal showing in the Republican presidential race has plunged his approval among Texans to its lowest level in a decade.

Most striking: Perry’s 40% job approval rating in his home state is lower than President Obama’s 43%, despite the GOP’s domination in Texas.

The poll also showed that most Texans — 53% — do not want to see Perry seek another term as governor. Even some of his strongest supporters — 41% of Republicans and 35% of those who voted for him two years ago — don’t want him to run again.

Romney Retakes Lead in Florida

A new Rasmussen survey in Florida shows Mitt Romney now leading Newt Gingrich by eight points, 39% to 31%, with Rick Santorum at 12% and Ron Paul at 9%.

Four days ago, just after the South Carolina Primary, Gingrich led Romney 41% to 32%.

Meanwhile, a new Monmouth University poll shows Romney with a 7 point lead over Gingrich among likely Republican voters, 39% to 32%, with Santorum at 11% and Paul at 8%.

A new InsiderAdvantage survey shows Romney with an eight point lead over Gingrich, 40% to 32%, followed by Paul at 9% and Santorum at 8%.

Has Gingrich Peaked in Florida?

Nate Silver: “The FiveThirtyEight forecast model still projects Mr. Gingrich as the slight favorite in Florida, giving him a 2-point lead and a 60 percent chance of victory. However, this lead is diminished considerably from two days ago, when the model saw a potential double-digit win for Mr. Gingrich as polls released immediately after the South Carolina primary had him surging in Florida.”

“In fact, I suspect the model is being too conservative and that there is enough evidence — when you look carefully at the day-to-day results — to conclude that Mr. Romney has re-emerged as the slight favorite in Florida instead.”

First Read: “Five days until the voters go to the polls in the Sunshine State, the GOP presidential contest is very volatile. It’s a pure coin flip… The bottom line is no one knows what’s going to happen, raising the stakes for tonight’s debate, the 19th of this cycle and the last one before this primary.”

Why Florida is Make-or-Break Moment for Republicans

Amy Walter points out that a win by Newt Gingrich in Florida would all but guarantee a long, drawn-out contest.

“It will legitimize Gingrich as a serious contender (not just a guy who got lucky in South Carolina). It will lead to lots of hand-wringing by GOP leaders. The cable chatterers will be in full-blown bloviate mode about the state of the dysfunction in the Republican Party. A Romney win doesn’t guarantee a quick end to the contest, but it would slow Gingrich’s momentum. Other factors that could dampen Newt-mentum include the fact that there’s just one debate scheduled for the entire month of February and that there are only caucuses, not primaries, for most of that month. Rick Santorum and Ron Paul have all but conceded the state to the two frontrunners. Florida is a winner-take-all contest, which means all 50 delegates go to the top vote-getter. There’s no incentive to try and battle for third or fourth place. And while both remain committed to staying in the race, it’s clear that, for now, the battle for the nomination is a two-man race between Gingrich and Romney.”

First Read: “Just how important is Florida to both the Romney and Gingrich candidacies? Romney and Gingrich allies are spending more than $20 million between them to try and win it and possibly put away the GOP nominating fight.”

Improving Economy Gives Obama a Lift

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found American voters feeling more positively about the economy and of President Obama’s handling of it. Some 30% believed the country was headed in the right direction, up eight points from a month ago. Some 60% said the country was on the wrong track, down from 69% in December.

For the first time in seven months, more people approve of Obama’s job performance than disapprove, 48% to 46%.

Buffett Talks Taxes

In an interesting ABC News interview, Warren Buffett lashed out at assertions from Republicans that the “Buffett rule” endorsed last night by President Obama — which says that anyone earning more than a million dollars a year should be taxed at at least 30% — is class warfare.

Said Buffett: “If this is a war, my side has the nuclear bomb.”

See more…

Geithner Will Not Serve Another Term

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner told Bloomberg TV that President Obama is “not going to ask me to stay on, I’m pretty confident. I’m confident he’ll be president. But I’m also confident he’s going to have the privilege of having another secretary of the Treasury.”

Romney Holds Small Edge in Florida

A new CNN-Time poll in Florida finds Mitt Romney leading with 36%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 34%, Rick Santorum at 11% and Ron Paul at 9%.

Key findings: “Romney leads Gingrich among female and white voters, voters over 50, and those with a college degree… Gingrich holds leads among men, Tea Party voters, self-identified conservatives — among whom he boasts a 10-point advantage — and born-again Christians. His fans also appear to be more committed than Romney’s.”

What’s Up with Mormon Underwear?

Buzzfeed: “Because garments are considered so sacred, Mormons tend to recoil when they hear non-Mormons make casual reference to their underwear — especially in a political context. But if there ever was a time when discussion of the subject could be contained to Mormon circles, now is not it.”

Gingrich Says Clinton Comparison Not Fair

Newt Gingrich insisted that there was nothing similar about his personal failings and those of Bill Clinton — even though both were having extramarital affairs in the late 1990s, CNNreports.

Said Gingrich: “I didn’t do the same thing. I have never lied under oath. I have never committed perjury. I have never been involved in a felony. He was.”

Lois Romano: “You got hand it to the guy. He always tries to find a small patch of moral high ground on which to stand. No matter how tiny.”

Unemployment Forecast Lower This Year

The Federal Reserve downgraded its outlook for economic growth this year but is slightly more optimistic about the unemployment rate, the Wall Street Journal reports.

The Fed expects the economy to grow between 2.2% and 2.7% this year. That’s down from November’s forecast of between 2.5% and 2.9%. But it sees unemployment falling as low as 8.2%, an improvement from November’s bottom rate of 8.5%.

Very High Marks for Obama’s Speech

A new CBS News poll finds that 91% of Americans who watched President Obama’s State of the Union address approved of the policy proposals he put forth, while just 9% disapproved.

Caveat: “Americans who watched the speech were generally more Democratic than the nation as a whole. Forty-four percent of viewers polled were Democrats and 25% were Republicans. (Historically speaking, that is not an unusual statistic: a president’s supporters are more likely than his opponents to watch State of the Union addresses.)”

Castro Calls Republican Primary Idiotic

Fidel Castro lambasted the Republican presidential race as the greatest competition of “idiocy and ignorance” the world has ever seen, the AP reports.

“Castro’s comments came in a long opinion piece carried by official media two days after Republican presidential hopefuls at a debate in Florida presented mostly hard-line stances on what to do about the Communist-run island, and even speculated as to what would happen to the 85-year-old revolutionary leader’s soul when he dies. Cuba has become an important issue as the candidates court Florida’s influential Cuban-American community in an effort to win the biggest electoral prize so far in the primary season.”

Just an Ordinary Swiss Account

While Mitt Romney regularly accuses President Obama of wanting to turn the United States into Europe, a new DNC video asks why Romney puts so much of his money there in secret Swiss bank accounts and other overseas tax havens.

See more…

Dumbest Mayor Ever?

When East Haven Mayor Joseph Maturo (R) was asked by WPIX-TV what he would do for the Latino community in the aftermath of four police officers being charged with violating the civil rights of Latino residents he said that he might go home and eat tacos.

See more…

Gingrich Challenges Pelosi to Reveal Her Secret

Newt Gingrich told NBC News that he doubts Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has any dirt on himas she hinted last night.

Said Gingrich: “She lives in a San Francisco environment of very strange fantasies and very strange understandings of reality. I have no idea what’s in Nancy Pelosi’s head. If she knows something, I have a simple challenge: Spit it out.”

See more…

Bachmann Will Run for Re-Election

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) told the AP  she will seek a fourth term in the U.S. House following her failed presidential bid.

Romney Wants to Know Pelosi’s Secret

Mitt Romney told Fox News that he wished he knew what Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) hinted she knows about Newt Gingrich that would derail his presidential bid.

Said Romney: “I wish I knew what that was. I’d tell people what it is right now.”

Exchange of the Day

John King, CNN: “Because of your history with Speaker Gingrich, what goes through your mind when you think of the possibility, which is more real today than it was a week or a month ago, that he would be the Republican nominee and that you could come back here next January or next February with a President Gingrich?”

Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA): “Let me just say this. That will never happen.”

King: “Why?”

Pelosi: “He’s not going to be President of the United States. That’s not going to happen. Let me just make my prediction and stand by it, it isn’t going to happen.”

King: “Why are you so sure?”

Pelosi: “There is something I know. The Republicans, if they choose to nominate him that’s their prerogative. I don’t even think that’s going to happen.”

See more…

Gingrich Group Launches New Ad in Florida

A Super PAC aligned with Newt Gingrich just launched a $6 million ad buy in Florida, one day after a $5 million cash infusion by the wife of casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, Miriam Adelson, First Read reports.

“The new ad being put into the rotation is a hard-hitting one focused on Romney’s health-care plan and him saying he’s a ‘progressive.’ The focus on health care is a shift away from Romney’s time at Bain. Romney really hasn’t taken sustained hits on health care, and it’ll be interesting to see what life is like for him a week later. The ad also likely guarantees health care as a topic at tomorrow night’s debate. The most devastating line of the ad might be — ‘the inventor of government-run health care.’”

That said, even with this new ad buy, Romney and his allies are spending more than double what Gingrich and his supporters are.

Walker Leads in Recall Match Ups

A new Marquette Law School Poll in Wisconsin shows Gov. Scott Walker (R) holds leads of six to ten points over four potential Democratic opponents in a possible gubernatorial recall election.

The closest match up is with Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D), where Walker leads 50% to 44%.

Said pollster Charles Franklin: “The old line ‘you don’t beat somebody with nobody’ is true. Other polls have asked only if Governor Walker should be recalled and have found closer races. But in the end, some specific Democrat will face Governor Walker. This poll is the first of the year to match specific potential Democratic challengers against the governor. The results show a competitive race but one in which Governor Walker starts with an advantage.”

Obama Orders Another Navy SEALs Raid

In a daring nighttime raid, U.S. Navy SEALs rescued two hostages, including one American, who were being held by kidnappers in Somalia, MSNBC reports.

The details are reminiscent of the raid that resulted in the death of Osama bin Laden: “two teams of Navy SEALs landed by helicopter near the compound where the two hostages were being held. As the SEALS approached the compound on foot gunfire broke out, the U.S. officials said, and several of the militants were reportedly killed… The SEALs gathered up Buchanan and Thisted, loaded them onto the helicopters and flew them to safety at an undisclosed location. The two hostages were not injured during the rescue operation and are reported to be in relatively good condition.”

“The first indication of the rescue operation came Tuesday night in Washington from President Obama himself. As the president entered the House chambers to give his State of the Union Speech, he pointed to Defense Secretary Leon Panetta standing in the crowd and said, ‘Leon. Good job tonight. Good job tonight.’”

Reaction to Obama’s State of the Union Speech

In case you missed it, the Daily Beast has compiled video clips of the “best moments” from President Obama’s State of the Union speech last night.

Andrew Sullivan: “I was hoping for a vision. I was hoping for real, strategic reform. What we got was one big blizzard of tax deductions, wrapped in a populist cloak. It was treading water. I suspect this will buoy liberal spirits, but anger the right and befuddle the independents. It definitely gives the Republican case against Obama as a big government meddler more credibility. I may be wrong – but the sheer cramped, tedious, mediocre micro-policies he listed were uninspiring to say the least… We voted for Obama; now we find we got another Clinton.”

Mark Halperin: “The speech was clearly poll tested to within an inch of its life, filled with programs and themes of broad appeal running from the left to the center right. Rhetorically reached out to the opposition by invoking national security, the need to get Washington working and a few familiar areas of common ground (entitlement and education reform). But much of the speech focused on policies that divide the parties absolutely. And, judging by the press releases and tweets from the Republican leadership, this State of the Union address will serve to lay down markers for November’s election rather than break the current gridlock.”

Jonathan Chait: “The first two years of the Obama presidency were a frantic rush of policymaking with barely any concern for political messaging, which suffered as a result. Tonight’s State of the Union Address was just the opposite. President Obama knows full well that Republicans in Congress will block everything. In the absence of policy, he is backfilling the political narrative… It was the speech of a man who realizes that he has only one thing left to do, and that is to win reelection.”

Jonathan Cohn: “But after the election, there will be a chance to govern again. Expiration of the Bush tax cuts and the onset of spending cuts from last summer’s budget deal will force decisions on fiscal policy. With this speech, Obama is not merely trying to win reelection, although he is quite obviously trying to do that. He is also laying the groundwork for those negotiations, should he have a chance, as the president-reelect, to drive them.”

Glenn Thrush: “He didn’t talk like this in 2011. Or in 2010. Or in 2009 — when he was trying to cultivate the image of a post-partisan pragmatist… But voters, including liberals, are furious with Washington and demanding a more populist tone. It’s an atmosphere that gives a distinct advantage to gritty Newt Gingrich, a millionaire at ease with working-class voters, over the slicker Romney, a millionaire who isn’t. And the president’s team has clearly taken notice.”

President Obama’s State of the Union Address

Here’s the complete text of President Obama’s State of the Union address as released by the White House:

Last month, I went to Andrews Air Force Base and welcomed home some of our last troops to serve in Iraq. Together, we offered a final, proud salute to the colors under which more than a million of our fellow citizens fought – and several thousand gave their lives.

We gather tonight knowing that this generation of heroes has made the United States safer and more respected around the world. For the first time in nine years, there are no Americans fighting in Iraq. For the first time in two decades, Osama bin Laden is not a threat to this country. Most of al Qaeda’s top lieutenants have been defeated. The Taliban’s momentum has been broken, and some troops in Afghanistan have begun to come home.

These achievements are a testament to the courage, selflessness, and teamwork of America’s Armed Forces. At a time when too many of our institutions have let us down, they exceed all expectations. They’re not consumed with personal ambition. They don’t obsess over their differences. They focus on the mission at hand. They work together.

See more…

Economic Confidence Improving

Jonathan Cohn: “Once again, today’s biggest political news isn’t about the Republican candidates or the President, even though the former are battling in Florida and the latter is about to give the State of the Union address. It’s the latest Gallup survey, which shows economic confidence has risen sharply since August and is now at levels not seen since May. That report is consistent with the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, in which confidence in the economy reaches its highest rate in months.”

Jonathan Bernstein: “The overall numbers are still not very good. But confidence as measured by Gallup has fully recovered from a summer slump, and is rallying to close to its post-recession highs, and is well above the levels from George W. Bush’s last year in office. For now, anyway.”

Gingrich Grabs National Lead Again

The latest Gallup tracking poll shows Newt Gingrich leading the Republican presidential field nationally with 31%, followed by Mitt Romney at 27%, Rick Santorum at 12% and Ron Paul at 12%.

A new Rasmussen survey has similar results: Gingrich leads with 35%, followed by Romney at 28%, Santorum at 12% and Paul at 12%.

Romney Releases 2010 Tax Return

Mitt Romney’s campaign released hundreds of pages of tax documents, the New York Times reports, “providing an inside glimpse into his sprawling investments, both in the United States and abroad, in an effort to dampen the attacks on his wealth that have become a central focus of the Republican presidential nominating battle.”

“Mr. Romney and his wife, Ann, had an effective federal income tax rate in 2010 of 13.9 percent, paying about $3 million in taxes on an adjusted gross income of $21.6 million, the vast majority of it flowing from a myriad of stock holdings, mutual funds and other investments… That rate will rise to 15.4 percent for 2011, when the couple expects to report an adjusted gross income of about $20.9 million.”

Romney Craters with Independents

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows Mitt Romney’s popularity has dropped dramatically with an unfavorable rating at 49% and favorable rating at 31%.

It’s even worse among independents: 51% don’t view him favorably while just 23% do.

Jonathan Chait: “The Obama campaign would almost certainly still prefer to run against Gingrich. But the electability gap between the two leading contenders is dwindling. No wonder more and more conservatives are frantically casting about for a new candidate to jump in and save the day.”

Quote of the Day

“My ability to organize and orchestrate things would be vastly greater than a normal politician.”

– Newt Gingrich, quoted by CBN News.

Very Close Race in Florida

A new We Ask America poll in Florida shows Mitt Romney leading his GOP presidential rivals with 34%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 32%, Rick Santorum at 9% and Ron Paul at 8%.

A new Florida Chamber poll shows Gingrich and Romney deadlocked at 33% each in Florida.

The Dark Art of the Political Smear

New York magazine has a must-read piece on how political campaigns go negative:

“What these negative tacticians are attempting to do is to simplify. Psychologists talk about the ‘availability heuristic,’ the tendency of a person to judge something, or someone, by the most readily available information. If viewers are told in a well-produced movie, for instance, that Romney laid off workers at a factory to enrich himself while running private-equity firm Bain Capital — regardless of whether it was three or four instances out of 100, or whether he ultimately created more jobs than he destroyed — they’ll tend to assume the single illustration demonstrates the greater truth because it’s the most immediate example.”

“The best way to exploit the availability heuristic, political consultants know, is to find the unstable territory between the legitimate facts and a smear.”

What About Gingrich’s Ex-Colleagues?

David Frum: “It’s striking that almost none of Gingrich’s former colleagues in the House has endorsed him for president. Striking that nobody associated with a past Republican presidential association has done so. He is a candidate of talk-show hosts and local activists — and of course of Rick Perry and Sarah Palin — but not of those who know him best and have worked with him most closely. Gingrich may raise more money after his South Carolina win. But prediction: Romney will raise even more, among the great national network of Republicans who recognize that to nominate Gingrich is to commit party suicide.”

People Don’t Get More Conservative as They Get Older

“Amidst the bipartisan banter of election season, there persists an enduring belief that people get more conservative as they age — making older people more likely to vote for Republican candidates,” according to Discovery News.

“Ongoing research, however, fails to back up the stereotype… In fact, studies show that people may actually get more liberal over time when it comes to certain kinds of beliefs. That suggests that we are not pre-determined to get stodgy, set in our ways or otherwise more inflexible in our retirement years.”

Why Newt is Like Nixon

Jon Meacham: “The analogous elements are obvious. Like Nixon, Gingrich is smart, with a wide-ranging and entrepreneurial mind. Like Nixon, Gingrich is a striver who seems insecure around traditional establishment figures even though he has achieved much more than nearly all of the politicians, editors and reporters he seems to at once loathe and fear. Like Nixon, Gingrich is fluent in the vernacular of cultural populism, brilliantly casting contemporary American life in terms of an overarching conflict between ‘real’ people and distant ‘elites’ bent on the destruction of all that is good and noble about the United States.”

The Most Expensive Senate Race Ever?

“At the moment, that record is held by the 2000 New York Senate race between Hillary Clinton and Rep. Rick Lazio (R). The two candidates raised and spent a combined $70 million in that contest — about $40 million by Lazio and $30 million by Clinton,” Aaron Blakereports.

“With Brown and Warren approaching $25 million raised at the end of 2011, they would need to raise and spend another $45 million in 2012 to break the record. Given the quickening pace of donations, that looks likely.”

Romney Recruits New Debate Coach

With a crucial debate  last night and another one on Thursday, the New York Times reports Mitt Romney has recruited Brett O’Donnell, who served as one of Michele Bachmann’s top strategists during her short-lived presidential campaign, as his new  debate coach.

“O’Donnell is a veteran of presidential debates, having served as a top debate coach to Senator John McCain of Arizona during the 2008 campaign. In that role, he helped prepare Mr. McCain for debates against Mr. Romney and brings those insights to the current sessions.”

Romney’s Inauthenticity

Jonah Goldberg: “As I’ve been writing for a very long time, Romney has an authentic inauthenticity problem. In other words, he seems like he’s faking things even when he’s not. He may take positions he doesn’t hold in his heart, but all politicians do that. The problem is that the vast majority of the time he’s no more passionate or convincing about the positions he almost surely does hold in his heart.”

“More to the point, fair doesn’t have anything to do with it. Politics is about persuasion and he’s simply not persuasive. I’m rapidly losing confidence that as a general election candidate he would be able to win over the crucial voters he would need to seal the deal.”

Calming the GOP Establishment

A Wall Street Journal editorial tries to settle down Republicans after Newt Gingrich’s trouncing of Mitt Romney in South Carolina:

“As for the GOP establishment, such as it still is, Mr. Gingrich’s re-emergence is likely to cause a panic attack. They don’t believe he is electable. Our advice would be to relax and let the voters decide. If Mr. Romney can’t marshal the wit and nerve to defeat the speaker, then he isn’t likely to defeat Mr. Obama.”

Mark Halperin: “It seems the Republican Establishment is waiting until after Florida for any panic, hoping Romney can set the universe back in order then. Of course, it will be (even) harder to stop Newt if he wins Florida.”

Romney’s National Lead Collapses

The latest Gallup daily tracking poll shows Mitt Romney’s once formidable national lead over his Republican presidential rivals has completely collapsed. Romney now barely edges Newt Gingrich, 29% to 28%. They are followed by Ron Paul at 13% and Rick Santorum at 11%.

More potential bad news for Romney: The tracking survey is a five day rolling average and reflects just one day of polling since Gingrich’s blow out primary victory in South Carolina.

Deal to Keep Super PACs Out of Senate Race

Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) and his likely Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren have reached a deal to keep super PACs out of their race, reports The Hill, marking “the first attempt by candidates to wrest control of their races back from groups over whom they have no direct control.”

“The pact signed by Warren and Brown on Monday imposes a financial penalty whenever an outside group intrudes on the race. If an outside group places a television or Internet ad supporting a candidate, the candidate would be required to donate 50 percent of the cost of the ad to a charity of the opponent’s choosing within three days. Negative attack ads would also trigger the penalty, with the candidate whose rival is attacked being forced to forfeit half the cost.”

Meanwhile, Greg Sargent notes Karl Rove’s Super PAC already appears to be signalingthat it may not honor the deal.

Paul Detained After Refusing Airport Pat Down

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) “was stopped by security at the Nashville airport Monday when a scanner set off an alarm and targeted his knee, although the senator said he has no screws or medical hardware around the joint,” the Lexington Herald Leader reports.

Paul refused to submit to a pat down by airport security and said he was “detained” at a small cubicle and couldn’t make his flight to Washington for a Senate vote scheduled later in the day.

“A TSA official speaking on condition of anonymity in order to discuss internal screening policies said Paul was never detained.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

“We could see an October surprise once a day from Newt Gingrich.”

– Mitt Romney, quoted by Slate, on what might happen if Newt Gingrich wins the GOP nomination.

Why the GOP Establishment Fears Gingrich

Michael Crowley: “To the extent Newt threatens the Establishment, it’s because of his electability-or lack thereof. The GOP’s mandarins see Gingrich’s nomination as a sure way to blow their chance of deposing Barack Obama. They see Gingrich as the political equivalent of a Fukushima nuclear plant worker, with polls showing him to be lethally irradiated by his negative approval ratings. Whereas Mitt Romney is running about even with Barack Obama in head-to-head polling, Newt loses by double-digit margins. Sure, those numbers could change if Gingrich beats Romney and wins the nomination, with all the accolades it entails. On the other hand, his grandiosity syndrome may kick in, as it has before, and render him a laughing stock. Hence the many Establishment Republicans now saying things like, ‘Newt means losing 45 states.’”

Walker Claims Both Balanced Budget and Deficit

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s (R) administration “has touted for months its efforts to balance the state budget, but now it also has acknowledged a significant way in which the budget isn’t balanced,” the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports.

“To keep the possibility alive of making further cuts to state health programs, the Walker administration quietly certified to the federal government on Dec. 29 that the state had a deficit. Federal law allows the state to drop tens of thousands of adults to save money on health care costs if the state can show it has a deficit. Walker has said he wants to cut health care spending in other ways, but hasn’t ruled out dropping those 53,000 adults if the other methods aren’t approved by the federal government.”

State of the Campaign Address?

As President Obama prepares to give his State of the Union Address on Tuesday night, The Hill looks at the efforts to balance the policy and politics of an election year address.

“The White House has said in no uncertain terms that Obama’s path to another term will be cleared by open conflict with a Republican-controlled House that is deeply unpopular with voters, so observers expect a pugnacious Obama to take the lectern… While there might be some finger-wagging, don’t expect a trash-talking president. After all, you can’t exactly walk into someone else’s house, sit on the living room couch and drop some insults… At the same time, the White House has pushed back at suggestions the State of the Union will be Obama’s first major stump speech of his reelection bid, insisting Obama will focus on policy in the address.”

When Perry Comes Home

As Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) wraps up his failed presidential bid and heads home to continue governing his state, Time reports that he “returns bruised and diminished, taking his place among a gallery of strong talkin’, wide-steppin’ Texas politicos who have ventured across the Red River only to return with their tails between their legs.”

“Many Texans must feel that the governor is returning as damaged goods with lots of self-inflicted political wounds which he will have to heal fast to be able to be effective at governing the state… Texas has no term limits and Perry spokesman Ray Sullivan said following the drop out announcement that the governor would not rule out another term… But there are other strong Republicans standing in the queue for the top job in Texas, including Attorney General Greg Abbott. Meanwhile, a few Republicans are beginning to question Perry’s policies and approach, some even agreeing to go on the record.”

Facilitator of Change

Ryan Lizza notes that although many hoped Barack Obama would be someone “who reshapes public opinion and the political landscape with his charisma and his powers of persuasion.”

“Instead, Obama has turned out to be… ‘a facilitator of change.’ The facilitator is acutely aware of the constraints of public opinion and Congress. He is not foolish enough to believe that one man, even one invested with the powers of the Presidency, can alter the fundamentals of politics… Directors are more like revolutionaries. Facilitators are more like tacticians. Directors change the system. Facilitators work the system. Obama’s first three years as President are the story of his realization of the limits of his office, his frustration with those constraints, and, ultimately, his education in how to successfully operate within them. A close look at the choices Obama made on domestic policy, based on a review of hundreds of pages of internal White House documents, reveals someone who is canny and tough–but who is not the President his most idealistic supporters thought they had elected.”

Romney’s Bain Problem

“The verdict is in: Mitt Romney’s Bain Capital problem is real,” Politico reports.

“Of all the forces that converged to doom Romney in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, none may be as disconcerting for Republicans as the attacks on Romney’s private equity work — an offensive that caught Romney off-guard and triggered a damaging conversation about his vast personal wealth.”

Gingrich Surges in Florida

Coming off his big win in South Carolina, a new InsiderAdvantage poll in Florida shows Newt Gingrich surging into the lead of the GOP presidential race with 34%, followed by Mitt Romney at 26%, Ron Paul at 13% and Rick Santorum at 11%.

Meanwhile, in the first night of polling Florida, Public Policy Polling finds Gingrich and Romney “neck and neck.”

Quote of the Day

“We’re not choosing a talk show host. We’re choosing the person who should be leader of the free world.”

– Mitt Romney, quoted by the Los Angeles Times, alluding to his Newt Gingrich’s strong debate performances that helped shift momentum in the GOP presidential race.

Romney on the Attack

Speaking in Florida, Mitt Romney “deviated from his standard remarks early, looking to define the candidate who mauled him in South Carolina in a different light by bringing up the tumultuous end of Gingrich’s tenure as speaker of the House of Representatives,” NBC News reports.

Said Romney: “So I’ve had the experience of leadership. Now Speaker Gingrich has also been a leader. He was a leader for four years as speaker of the House. And at the end of four years it was proven he was a failed leader. And he had to resign in disgrace. I don’t know if you knew that. He actually resigned after four years in disgrace. He was investigated under an ethics panel and had to make a payment associated with that and then his fellow Republicans, 88 percent of Republicans, voted to reprimand Speaker Gingrich. He has not had a record of successful leadership.”

“Direct assaults like this from Romney on the stump are rare enough to be startling to those who hear him speak daily, but Romney didn’t stop there, also tying Gingrich to the housing crisis in a state where the collapse in home values has been acutely felt.”

Here Come the Super Super PACs

Politico: “Here’s how it works: under new federal rules, a traditional PAC and super PAC may operate under one roof. These hybrid operations can raise and spend unlimited amounts of cash to promote or oppose candidates, as any super PAC can, while simultaneously giving limited amounts of money directly to campaigns and committees, like a traditional political action committee. Already, 11 of these hybrids have emerged, representing a range of political ideologies and purposes.”

Giffords Will Step Down from Congress

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ), who was shot in the head during a 2011 assassination attempt, announced that she will resign from Congress this week in order to focus on her continuing recovery, the Arizona Republic reports.

“Giffords, whose ability to speak was damaged by the gunman’s attack, made the announcement herself in a YouTube video posted to her account. She plans to attend President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address on Tuesday and will resign sometime after that.”

Washington Post: “According to state law, Gov. Jan Brewer must set a date for a special election primary 80 to 90 days after Giffords formally steps down, and a general election will be set for 50 to 60 days after the primary. So the primary election for Giffords seat will likely be held in late April with the general election in June.”

What if Gingrich Wins Florida?

John Heilemann: “If Gingrich wins Florida, the Republican Establishment is going to have a meltdown that makes Three Mile Island look like a marshmallow roast.”

“Why? Because the Establishment will be staring down the barrel of two utterly unpalatable choices. On the one hand, Gingrich’s national favorable-unfavorable ratings of 26.5 and 58.6 percent, respectively make him not just unelectable against Obama but also mean that he would likely be a ten-ton millstone around the necks of down-ballot Republican candidates across the country. And on the other, Romney has shown in two successive contests — one in a bellwether Republican state, the other in a key swing state — an inability to beat his deeply unpopular rival. If this scenario unfolds, the sound of GOP grandees whispering calls for a white knight… will be deafening.”

Why Florida Could Be Tough for Romney

Mitt Romney has two advantages as the Florida primary approaches on January 31: money and early voting. Romney and an aligned Super PAC have spent more than $7 million of airtime already in the state and nearly 200,000 Republicans have already cast their votes.

But Politico notes Newt Gingrich heads into Florida “emboldened by two assets that will test Romney’s organization and money there: the momentum from a double-digit victory and a conservative base that appears to be coalescing. But the results here revealed Romney’s weakness as much as they hinted at Gingrich’s potential. The establishment favorite didn’t just lose South Carolina – he got thrashed,”

First Read adds that the GOP electorate in Florida “has the potential to be unkind to Romney. Think South Carolina but with Cuban Americans in Miami thrown into the mix. According to the 2008 exit polls, 61% of Florida Republican primary voters considered themselves conservative (68% said they were conservative in South Carolina last night). And remember: Florida’s primary is closed, meaning that independents don’t get to vote. After all, it’s the same electorate that picked Rick Scott in 2010 over establishment favorite Bill McCollum.”

Adam Smith: “As important as money, television advertising and organization are here, momentum tends to trump everything else in widely watched presidential campaigns. Romney easily outspent and out-organized John McCain in Florida in 2008 and still lost.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

“One or two more defeats and who knows what he’s going to say….I think he’s been dancing on eggs trying to find a version of Romney that will work.”

– Newt Gingrich, in an interview on Face the Nation, about GOP presidential rival Mitt Romney.

Romney Will Release Tax Returns This Week

Mitt Romney told Fox News that he will release his tax returns for 2010 on Tuesday, with an estimate of his 2011 returns.

Said Romney: “We made a mistake holding off as long as we did.”

Romney’s Message Problem

First Read: “Romney is not going to be the de-facto nominee until he wins over the conservative base of his party (outside of New Hampshire). And last night in South Carolina, that base overwhelmingly broke for Gingrich. Among voters who described themselves as “very conservative” (who made up 36% of last night’s primary electorate) Gingrich beat Romney, 48%-19%. Among Tea Party supporters, Gingrich had a 20-point edge, 45%-25%. And among those who are evangelicals or born-again Christians (who made up 65% of the electorate) Gingrich won, 44%-22%. And just as importantly, these folks finally coalesced around one anti-Romney alternative — and that person was Gingrich.”

“Ultimately, Romney’s problem right now is message — not mechanics. And as we saw in 2008, Romney doesn’t do the attack well. That’s what is going to make Monday night’s NBC debate so fascinating to watch.”

Quote of the Day

“It’s a real possibility. Right now I’d say it’s 50-50. The base wants its chance to have their say. They aren’t going to want it to end early, before they get their chance, which means that the process could go all the way to Tampa.”

– Former RNC Chairman Michael Steele, quoted by the Huffington Post, on the chances of an open or undecided Republican National Convention.

Jeb Bush Will Not Endorse

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) told Bloomberg he will “stay neutral” in the state’s Republican presidential primary while warning his party’s candidates to leave the “circular firing squad” of their debates behind and start appealing to a broader audience.

State of the Republican Race

James Carville: “Memo to Republican Establishment: Let me break it to you gently — you’ve got a first-class disaster on your hands. I know you boys thought this thing would work out and you would be able to whip the Republicans in line to fall in behind Mitt (I assume you are all males but if there is a female in the establishment, I apologize.) Not going too good, is it fellows?”

Andrew Sullivan: “This is the Republican crack-up people have been predicting for years. Gingrich is on a roll. I think he can win this – and then lose this in a way that could change America history. That is a brief impression in one moment of time. But I cannot see Romney winning this at this point. They are just not into him, and he’s an awful candidate.”

Brad Phillips: “If Mitt Romney had won, he would have become the de facto nominee earlier than any other presidential candidate in U.S. history, meaning that he alone would have had to endure more media scrutiny – for a longer period of time – than any of his predecessors. Instead, he’ll now continue to share the media’s harsh glare with Newt Gingrich, a severely flawed candidate who will steal some of the limelight and help buffer Mr. Romney’s coverage. More stories about Mr. Gingrich’s angry ex-wife and messy leadership as House Speaker means fewer stories about Mr. Romney’s tax returns and Bain Capital.”

Jonathan Chait: “My view all along has been that any remotely plausible candidate could beat Mitt Romney. My current view is that there are no remotely plausible candidates, which leaves us with Newt. So we have the immovable object meeting the irresistible force, except the exact opposite. Like almost everybody outside Gingrich’s immediate family, I had already written him off twice. But he really seems okay. If some really crazy rich conservatives decide to write him some seven- or eight-figure checks, who knows?”

State of the Union Preview

President Obama will use his State of the Union address on Tuesday “to define an activist role for government in promoting a prosperous and equitable society, hoping to draw a stark contrast between the parties in a time of deep economic uncertainty,” the New York Times reports.

Obama will promise a populist “blueprint for an American economy that’s built to last,” with the government assisting to ensure “an America where everybody gets a fair shot, everyone does their fair share and everybody plays by the same set of rules.”

With three days remaining until the speech, the Washington Post reports Obama said he has yet to finish writing his address, “so there might be a few late nights between now and then.”

Two Years After Citizens United

It’s been two years since the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision which unleashed millions of dollars of ads financed not by candidates but by groups with innocuous names claiming no relationship to the candidates.

Norm Ornstein: “By giving corporations free rein to meddle in politics without any accountability required, just like in the robber baron days, and by defining money as speech, the court dealt a body blow to American democracy. Candidates no longer can focus simply on raising money for their campaigns against other candidates. Because corporations have almost unlimited sums they can put in with no notice, candidates have to raise protection money in advance just in case such a campaign is waged against them.”

“And in many cases, as I have written before, they will pay for protection by quietly giving companies or other interests what they want legislatively to avoid a multimillion-dollar slime campaign against them. Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy, who wrote the majority opinion in Citizens United, said there could be no corruption in independent spending. What planet does he live on?”

Perry Endorsement All About Perceptions

Nate Silver doesn’t think Rick Perry’s endorsement of Newt Gingrich in the Republican presidential primary will give Gingrich a direct boost, but that’s not to say it doesn’t help advance the emerging “Newt-mentum” narrative.

“Among these voters, second-place support was about evenly divided among three candidates: Mr. Gingrich was listed by 22 percent of Mr. Perry’s supporters as their second choice, but Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney were each listed as the second choice by 20 percent of Mr. Perry’s voters… And some of the ground that Mr. Gingrich has gained there since Monday night’s debate has come at Mr. Perry’s expense, so the voters who were most amenable to switching to Mr. Gingrich may already have done so… Instead, the main way this may aid Mr. Gingrich is by generating a strong headline for his campaign and entrenching the sense among the news media that he has the momentum in the race. That could be helpful to Mr. Gingrich given the complex story lines of the past few days.”

Iowa Victory Too Late for Santorum

Jonathan Chait: “Romney’s run of luck during the Republican nominating race is beginning to defy belief. Begin with the fact that Rick Santorum turns out to have won the Iowa caucuses. Finding this out now is approximately 0.001 percent as valuable as having it announced the night of the caucuses. There was an old Fed Ex commercial depicting an aging pool cleaner suddenly discovering a 20-year-old acceptance letter from Harvard he had never received, and imagining the life he could have had. That man is Santorum. He has to wonder if the Iowa vote counters were gay.”

Polling Snapshot Shows Gingrich Leading in South Carolina

A new Public Policy Polling survey in South Carolina — based on just one night of phone calls — shows Newt Gingrich leading Mitt Romney, 34% to 28%, followed by Ron Paul at 15%, Rick Santorum at 14%, Rick Perry at 5% and Buddy Roemer at 3%.

Key finding: “This is not a case of Romney imploding.  His support has been pretty steady in the 28-30% range in our South Carolina polling so far. But Gingrich has risen from 23% to 34% over the last two weeks, benefiting from declining support for Santorum and also from undecided voters moving into his camp.”

It’s the first of what will be three nights of tracking. PPP released the poll given Perry’s drop out from the race. It will be interesting to see how tonight’s debate and the interview with Gingrich’s ex-wife impact the results.

Romney’s Offshore Investments Did Avoid Taxes

Mitt Romney’s campaign has attacked reports “on the candidate’s offshore investments, saying his holdings in the Cayman Islands and elsewhere have no effect on the amount he pays in U.S. taxes,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“But the campaign’s assertions may be wrong or misleading. Tax experts said some of the offshore holdings are likely intended to help Mr. Romney avoid paying an obscure but hefty tax of as much as 35% on some of those investments, held in a tax-deferred retirement account.”

Ex-Wife Claims Gingrich Wanted “Open Marriage”

Marianne Gingrich told ABC News that when her husband Newt “admitted to a six-year affair with a congressional aide, he asked her if she would share him with the other woman, Callista.”

Said Marianne: “And I just stared at him and he said, ‘Callista doesn’t care what I do.’ He wanted an open marriage and I refused.”

The former Mrs. Gingrich says Newt began to plan a run for President at the time of the divorce and told her that Callista “was going to help him become President.”

Two Polls Show Gingrich Leading in South Carolina

Two new polls in South Carolina — both conducted after Monday’s presidential debate — show a very tight Republican primary race.

American Research Group: Newt Gingrich 33%, Mitt Romney 32%, Ron Paul 19%, Rick Santorum 9%, Rick Perry 4%.

InsiderAdvantage: Newt Gingrich 32%, Mitt Romney 29%, Ron Paul 15%, Rick Santorum 11%, Rick Perry 3%.

Caveat: Harry Enten makes a persuasive case that InsiderAdvantage has a pro-Gingrich bias to its results.

Quote of the Day

“Overall, I think it’s going to be pretty hard to argue that we have not executed a strategy over the last three years that has put America in a stronger position than it was than when I came into office.”

– President Obama, in an interview with Time magazine, on Mitt Romney’s criticism of his foreign policy.

Biden Confuses Giants

Vice President Joe Biden had his “oops” moment yesterday in San Francisco when he told a crowd that “the Giants are on their way to the Super Bowl,” the San Francisco Chroniclereports.

That didn’t please a crowd filled with San Francisco 49ers fans looking forward to a playoff game this weekend against the New York Giants.

“Biden quickly recognized the gaffe and and explained he was accustomed to thinking in terms of the San Francisco Giants and their baseball wins. His next reference was to the ’49ers on their way’ to the Big Game.”

Colbert Super PAC Attacks Colbert

More proof the Super PAC formerly run by Stephen Colbert is independent of the comedian’s presidential exploratory bid: It released an ad attacking Colbert himself.

See more…

Axelrod Makes Post-Election Plans

Obama strategist David Axelrod “is already making plans for after the 2012 election, and they do not involve another candidate or another trip to Iowa,” the New York Times reports.

Instead, Axelrod will lead “a new, nonpartisan Institute of Politics at the University of Chicago aimed at helping students seeking careers in public and social service.”

Said Axelrod: “This is my last campaign.”

Iowa Result Unresolved

The Des Moines Register reports Rick Santorum ended up with a 34 vote lead over Mitt Romney in the Iowa caucuses but “there are too many holes” in the certified totals to know for certain who won.

“Results from eight precincts are missing — any of which could hold an advantage for Mitt Romney — and will never be recovered and certified.”

GOP Still Favored to Retain Control of House

Kyle Kondik updates the House forecast at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Democrats need to win 25 additional House seats to retake the speaker’s gavel next year. In order for them to do that, President Obama will need to win next year, and that probably won’t be enough. What Democrats really need is a poisonous, damaged Republican nominee who not only loses to Obama but causes harm down the ticket.”

“At this point, we believe that 341 of the 435 House seats are safe for the Republicans (189) or the Democrats (152), which leaves the other 94 as potentially competitive. Ultimately, if Republicans win all the seats we currently favor them to win, and Democrats win all the seats they are favored to win plus all 15 toss ups, Republicans would still hold a 233-202 edge in the House.”

Gingrich’s Ex-Wife Talks

Earlier this week, Newt Gingrich’s ex-wife, Marianne Gingrich, conducted an interview with ABC News, according to the Drudge Report.

She spoke to investigative reporter Brian Ross for two hours and “her explosive revelations are set to rock the trail.”

The AP reports the interview is likely to air on Nightline Thursday night.

Romney Parks Millions in Offshore Investments

“Although it is not apparent on his financial disclosure form, Mitt Romney has millions of dollars of his personal wealth in investment funds set up in the Cayman Islands, a notorious Caribbean tax haven,” ABC News reports.

“As the race for the Republican nomination heats up, Mitt Romney is finding it increasingly difficult to maintain a shroud of secrecy around the details about his vast personal wealth, including, as ABC News has discovered, his investment in funds located offshore and his ability to pay a lower tax rate.”

Obama’s Dream Debate

A Super PAC backing Newt Gingrich imagines a general election debate between Mitt Romney and President Obama in a new animated ad.

See more…

South Carolina Race Tightens

A new CNN/Time poll in South Carolina shows Mitt Romney slipping and Newt Gingrich gaining.

Romney leads with 33%, followed by Gingrich at 23%, Rick Santorum at 16%, Ron Paul at 13% and Rick Perry at 6%.

Said pollster Keating Holland: “Gingrich appears to be the only candidate with momentum as the race in South Carolina enters the final few days. Support for Romney and Santorum appears to be slipping, and Paul and Perry seem flat. Gingrich, however, has gained ground and cut Romney’s lead in half since early January.”

Obama Campaign Begins TV Ads

President Obama’s campaign has begun buying advertising time in a handful of key battleground states — in Michigan, Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina — making his first purchase of television time so far this election, the New York Times reports.

“So far the purchase appears quite limited, according to someone who monitors political advertising. The ads were placed for one day only, Thursday. And the number of states where they will run could expand.”

Kansas Lawmaker Attempts to Secretly Record Meeting

Kansas state Rep. Terri Lois Gregory (R) attempted to covertly record a private conversation with state Sen. Vicki Schmidt (R) about controversial health reforms sought by Gov. Sam Brownback (R), the Topeka Capital Journal reports.

During the meeting, Schmidt noticed a small flashing light in Gregory’s satchel. It wasn’t a telephone.

Said Schmidt: “I asked her, ‘Are you recording me?’ She said, ‘Yes.’ ”

“A bipartisan contingent of legislators said Gregory violated an unwritten code of conduct among lawmakers that frowns on clandestine recording of colleagues in closed-door meetings.”

What Was Professor Gingrich Like?

Wall Street Journal: “A clutch of little-known records from what is now the University of West Georgia in Carrollton suggests the ambition and intellectual grandeur of Newt 2012 aren’t a long way from the 1970s vintage. In addition to seeking the college presidency, Mr. Gingrich was often absent as he pursued political goals. He embarked on an effort to moonlight as a paid consultant. And, it turns out, he spent little time teaching history.”

Obama Considering Summers for World Bank

President Obama is considering nominating Lawrence Summers, his former National Economic Council director, to lead the World Bank when Robert Zoellick’s term expires later this year, Bloomberg reports.

“A nomination of Summers would bring scrutiny of his previous stints in government, both as former President Bill Clinton’s Treasury Secretary and Obama’s NEC director, as well as his tenure as the president of Harvard University.”

Felix Salmon thinks it’s a bad idea: “The only way to be an effective World Bank president is to be an effective diplomat… Summers himself is the first to admit that he’s no diplomat: he prides himself on speaking the truth as he sees it. Which is fine if you’re making millions of dollars advising DE Shaw on their investments. But it’s not going to help you run the World Bank — or run anything larger than the Treasury Department, really. Even Harvard was too much for him to run; giving him the World Bank job would be a disaster.”

Gingrich Warns of “Dirty” Romney Campaign

After a national poll found Newt Gingrich surging again in the GOP presidential race, Newt Gingrich warned supporters it’s going to get ugly, National Review reports.

Said Gingrich: “I fully expect the Romney campaign to be unendingly dirty and dishonest for the next four days because they’re desperate. They thought they could buy this. They’re discovering they can’t buy this.”

He added: “I think they have internal polls that show them losing.”

GOP Lawmaker Takes Buffett’s Offer

Warren Buffett last week pledged to match any volunteer contribution made by a Republican member of Congress in order to reduce the national debt. Fortune reports Rep. Scott Rigell (R-VA) is the first to take Buffett up on his offer.

Rigell actually “got to this issue before Buffett did. He had, on his own, moved in 2011 to give 15% of his Congressional salary to the Treasury for the very purpose of paying down debt… Rigell said he would be making a 15% gift to the Treasury this year, but also hoped that Buffett would retroactively match his 2011 contribution. The amounts would be about $23,000 for 2011 (when some clerical errors resulted in the full 15% not being reached) and about $26,000 for 2012.”

Buffett responded that he would indeed match both amounts.

Paul Polls at 18% as Third Party Candidate

A new Pew Research survey shows that a third-party campaign by Ron Paul would clearly work to President Obama’s advantage: In this scenario, Obama would receive 44%, Mitt Romney would get 32% and Paul would get 18%.

In a two-way general election match up, Obama receives 50% while Romney gets 45%.

“Paul has repeatedly said he is not contemplating a third-party run, but has not ruled it out. While most of Paul’s backing in a three-person race comes from independent voters, they are independents who disproportionately lean Republican.”

Paul Polls at 18% as Third Party Candidate

A new Pew Research survey shows that a third-party campaign by Ron Paul would clearly work to President Obama’s advantage: In this scenario, Obama would receive 44%, Mitt Romney would get 32% and Paul would get 18%.

In a two-way general election match up, Obama receives 50% while Romney gets 45%.

“Paul has repeatedly said he is not contemplating a third-party run, but has not ruled it out. While most of Paul’s backing in a three-person race comes from independent voters, they are independents who disproportionately lean Republican.”

Will Romney Stop Debating?

Byron York reports Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign “says it has not yet accepted invitations to participate in two high-profile debates leading up to the January 31 Florida primary, and a key Romney adviser is expressing fatigue and frustration over what he sees as a never-ending series of GOP debates.”

Said adviser Stuart Stevens: “There are too many of these. We have to bring some order to it. We haven’t accepted Florida…It’s kind of like a cruise that’s gone on too long.”

A Weak Frontrunner

Jonathan Chait: “Romney has been positively associated with ‘electability’ because he is more electable than most of his rivals. But he is the one-eyed man in the land of the politically blind. Romney, by normal standards, is a terrible candidate. He is nowhere near as formidable as John McCain was four years before. The latest poll from PPP has his favorability rating at a miserable 35 percent positive, 53 percent negative. He may win — he probably will win if the economy dips back into recession — but he is a weak candidate who in many ways embodies the public’s distrust of his party.”

Molinari vs. Gingrich

Mitt Romney’s campaign put former Rep. Susan Molinari (R-NY) in a new web ad knocking Newt Gingrich’s leadership when he was Speaker of the House.

Miami Herald: “Molinari’s beef with Gingrich has a deeply personal aspect as well. Her husband, former Rep. Bill Paxon, was a top leader in the coup to oust Gingrich in 1997. It failed. Some blame Republican leader Dick Armey, now the leader of tea-party organizer FreedomWorks, for selling out his fellow plotters when he learned that Paxon would be speaker and not him. Paxon mysteriously soon left his post in Congress. It was never clear why.”

See more…

Romney Directed Millions to Mormon Church

ABC News: “Underscoring the prominent, if little discussed role that Mitt Romney played as a Mormon leader, the private equity giant once run by the GOP presidential frontrunner carved his church a slice of several of its most lucrative business deals, securities records show, providing it with millions of dollars worth of stock in some of Bain Capital’s most well-known holdings.”

“His family charity, called the Tyler Foundation, has given more than $4 million to the church in the past five years, including $1.8 million in 2008 and $600,000 in 2009. But because Romney, whose fortune has been estimated at $250 million, has never released his personal tax returns, the full extent of his giving has never been public. Newly uncovered stock contributions made during Romney’s Bain days suggest there is another dimension to Romney’s support for the church — one that could involve millions more than has been previously disclosed.”

Newt-mentum Again?

First Read: “There are some increasing signs — though all of it anecdotal for now — that Newt Gingrich is gaining some momentum three days before the South Carolina primary. First was his strong debate performance on Monday, from which his campaign cut a new TV ad. Second, the Romney campaign today is holding a conference call (featuring former Sen. Jim Talent and former Rep. Susan Molinari) with the sole purpose of hitting Gingrich, and we haven’t seen one of those from the Romney camp since Iowa. And third, Sarah Palin sort of endorsed Gingrich last night.”

“Of course, one challenge Gingrich faces is time; there are just three days to go until Saturday’s primary. And the other challenge is the math. It is very possible for Romney to win South Carolina with just 31% or 32% of the vote.”

Democrats Cut Convention to Three Days

In addition to announcing that President Obama would deliver his acceptance speech at Bank of America stadium, Democrats also said that they were shortening the convention from four days to three.

First Read: “This change will have a lasting repercussion. We likely won’t ever see four-day conventions any more. Also, given that they have just three days to work with, Democrats have a potential primetime scheduling challenge on their hands. How do you find three days to fit in primetime speeches by Obama, the first lady, the vice president, the keynote speaker, and Bill Clinton (who you know will want to receive speaking time)?”

Why Romney’s Tax Returns Matter

As First Read points out, “the central story of the past 10 days in the GOP presidential race has been about Mitt Romney’s wealth and his business practices at Bain Capital.”

Adam Sorensen: “For Democrats, this is the perfect campaign issue. It lies at the intersection of the personal, professional and political identities they plan to foist on Romney in the general election: the privilege they hope will make it hard for voters to relate to Romney, the erstwhile career in private equity that they hop will taint him as a economic predator rather than a turnaround artist, and the regressive tax policies they hope can drive a wedge between the Republican party and the middle class.”

Chris Cillizza: “The political problem for Romney in all of this is not that he’s wealthy. (President Obama is quite wealthy in his own right thanks to the success of his books.) It’s that the way Romney talks about money can make him seem drastically out of touch with average people — an issue that is exacerbated by the fact that he is running for president in a time of incredible economic hardship… Being rich isn’t the problem. Being unaware that lots and lots of other people aren’t (and what that means in real terms) is.”

Meanwhile, the DNC put out a video on Romney’s “taxing day.”

See more…

Did Santorum Win the Iowa Caucuses?

John Avlon: That’s what it looks like if numbers from a caucus in the town of Moulton, Appanoose County, are correctly counted when the official certification begins Wednesday night. This not only could rewrite the election history of 2012 to date — it would invalidate the oft-repeated line that Mitt Romney is the only candidate to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. It would stop the inevitability narrative in its tracks.”

Why Romney Keeps His Tax Returns Private

Reuters notes that it’s not just Mitt Romney’s low 15% tax rate that might deter him from releasing his tax returns.

“His vast fortune is invested in dozens of funds linked to Bain Capital LLC, the powerhouse private equity firm he co-founded and led for 15 years. Several Bain funds have offshore connections and take advantage of tax breaks used only by the U.S. financial elite… Bain funds in which Romney is invested are scattered from Delaware to the Cayman Islands and Bermuda, Ireland and Hong Kong, according to a Reuters analysis of securities filings.”

Mocking Super PACs

A must-see video: Jon Stewart mocks U.S. campaign finance law by showing how his Super PAC is “not coordinating” with exploratory presidential candidate Stephen Colbert.

See more…

Obama Ready to Launch TV Ads?

NBC News reports that the Obama re-election campaign “is requesting rates for a potential — and significant — TV ad buy.”

Caveat: “This doesn’t mean that we’ll soon see the ads; they could end up deciding to wait. But what Team Obama is doing is the first step in putting something on TV.”

Gingrich Jabs Romney on Taxes

The New York Times notes Newt Gingrich “poked fun” at Mitt Romney’s acknowledgment that he paid about a 15% tax rate because his income was largely returns on investments.

Gingrich has long proposed a 15% flat tax option for all taxpayers and said, “I assume this afternoon Mitt will endorse my flat tax proposal and have every American pay at the rate he paid.”

He also offered to dub it “the Mitt Romney flat tax.”

Democrats Submit 1 Million Signatures to Recall Walker

Wisconsin Democrats will file petitions with more than a million signatures in their effort to force a recall election against Gov. Scott Walker (R), “a massive number that seemed to cement a historic recall election against him for later this year,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.

Democrats need only valid 540,208 signatures to schedule the recall election against Walker.

Obama Leads Romney Nationally

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds President Obama with his best standing in a general election match up against Mitt Romney since right after the killing of Osama bin Laden.

Obama now leads Romney 49% to 44% nationally.

Key finding: “It’s not as if Obama’s suddenly become popular. He remains under water with 47% of voters approving of him to 50% who disapprove. But Romney’s even less popular, with only 35% rating him favorably while 53% have a negative opinion of him. Over the last month Romney’s seen his negatives with independents rise from 46% to 54%, suggesting that the things he has to say and do to win the Republican nomination aren’t necessarily helping him for the general.”

The Obama Hate Machine

Coming in two weeks: The Obama Hate Machine: The Lies, Distortions, and Personal Attacks on the President — and Who Is Behind Them by Bill Press.

Even Texas Republicans Don’t Want Perry

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Texas finds Rick Perry’s presidential campaign is doing about as bad in Texas now as it is everywhere else.

Mitt Romney leads among Republican voters in Perry’s home state with 24%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 23%, Perry at 18%, Rick Santorum at 15% and Ron Paul at 12%.

Barrett Favored by Democrats in Recall

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin finds Tom Barrett (D) would be the front runner if he decides to seek the Democratic nomination for governor in a possible upcoming recall election.

He leads Kathleen Falk (D), 46% to 27% and David Obey (D) 42% to 30% in potential head to heads.

Obama Will Accept Nomination at Stadium

On the final night of this year’s Democratic National Convention, President Obama will deliver his acceptance speech at Bank of America stadium, the Charlotte Observer reports.

“The move to the Carolina Panthers’ 74,000-seat stadium would replicate the 2008 convention, where Obama accepted the nomination at a packed Invesco Field in Denver. The move, which would open the speech to the public, is designed to help mobilize voters in North Carolina, a key swing state.”

Then again, as First Read notes, the corporate symbol of “Bank of America” stadium might not be one that Democrats want.

Recall Vote on Walker Appears Likely

Later today, opponents of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) “will submit a mountain of petition signatures demanding his recall,” the Chicago Tribune reports.

“A month ago, organizers said they were close to gathering the minimum of 540,208 signatures needed to force a vote — a number equal to a fourth of all votes cast in the 2010 election that put Walker in office and enough to signal broad misgivings about that result. Tuesday’s formal submission of petitions to the state’s election agency is expected to include a healthy cushion.”

“Election officials say it could take two months to vet the validity of the signatures, and Republicans say they have fielded thousands of volunteers to scour them for flaws. Walker, nonetheless, seems resigned to having to face a vote and has predicted it might take place by June.”

Still Hunting for a Straight Answer

The DNC so enjoyed Mitt Romney’s debate performance last night they made a compilation video of their favorite moments.

See more…

Romney Headed for Landslide Win in Florida

A new Sunshine State News Poll in Florida shows Mitt Romney headed for a big victory in the Republican presidential primary.

Romney leads with 46%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 20%, Rick Santorum at 12% and Ron Paul at 9%.

Said pollster Jim Lee: “Romney is the clear favorite, and you’d have to conclude he even has a shot to win 50 percent of the GOP vote, depending on what happens in South Carolina. His media saturation of the Florida airways is clearly having an impact, and, based on what I have learned, he is staying on message by talking about spending and deficits — two issues GOP voters care about.”

Colbert Super PAC Backs Cain

In a clear sign Stephen Colbert’s Super PAC isn’t coordinating with the comedian’s presidential exploratory bid, a new ad tells voters to back Herman Cain who’s still on the ballot in South Carolina.

“He’s not a career politician. He’s such a Washington outsider he’s not even running for president. Send them a message. On Jan. 21, vote Herman Cain.”

Colbert announced his bid after the deadline for getting on the ballot.

See more…

Conrad Won’t Comment on Budget Post

Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND) “has declined to comment whether or not he may be a candidate to become the new director of the Office of Management and Budget in the Obama administration,” the Bismarck Tribune reports.

Jack Lew, the current OMB director, is taking over as Obama’s White House chief of staff following the resignation of William Daley.

Nothing Disappears from the Internet

Before endorsing Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman tried to scrub his website of attacks made on the GOP frontrunner. But the DNC had copies and put them together in a new video.

See more…

Romney Holds Double-Digit Lead in South Carolina

A new Monmouth University poll in South Carolina shows Mitt Romney with a double-digit lead over his GOP rivals.

Romney leads with 33%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 22%, Rick Santorum at 14%, Ron Paul at 12%, Rick Perry at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 4%.

Huntsman Hides Attacks on Romney

In an age when candidates post many of their videos and attacks on the internet, The Fix highlights one challenge facing Jon Huntsman as he pivots to supporting Mitt Romney: “Huntsman has been one of Romney’s vicious critics on the trail, attacking the former Massachusetts governor on health-care mandates, taxes, abortion, foreign policy — you name it, Huntsman cut a Web video on it.”

“The former Utah governor’s campaign pulled multiple anti-Romney videos and Web sites off the web Sunday night, but Huntsman attacked Romney so many times that there’s plenty of evidence left online.”

Romney Up Big in Florida

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida shows Mit Romney with a big 15 point lead in the GOP presidential race.

Romney has 41%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 26%, Rick Santorum at 11%, Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 1% rounding out the field.

Key findings: “It’s not just a splintered conservative vote that has him ahead in Florida.  And even if most of his opponents were to drop out before the primary, Romney would still be in good shape. In hypothetical head to head match ups he leads Gingrich 50-38, Santorum 59-29, Perry 69-21, and Paul 76-17.”

Before Karen Met Rick

Rick Santorum and his wife Karen both oppose birth control as well as abortion, even in cases of rape. But Newsweek reports Mrs. Santorum wasn’t always as committed to the anti-abortion cause.

“In fact, her live-in partner through most of her 20s was Tom Allen, a Pittsburgh obstetrician and abortion provider 40 years older than she, who remains an outspoken crusader for reproductive rights and liberal ideals. Dr. Allen has known Mrs. Santorum, born Karen Garver, her entire life: he delivered her in 1960.”

Santorum Opens Fire on Romney

Rick Santorum rips Mitt Romney in a brutal new ad running in South Carolina.

Mark Halperin: “Amazing to think about what would have happened if this ad had been run in Iowa for all of December with real money behind it. Boston will surely note that Santorum is launching this spot the very day he spent the morning going after Romney and his Super PAC for their campaign efforts. There are more hot-button issues packed in here than there are Romney sons. The unflattering photographs of Obama and Romney are classics of the genre. And, with the exception of the Kennedy line, the claims are rock-solid factual. Will we see some of these same lines in robo-calls, emails and radio spots? As Sarah Palin, who would share some of the ad’s sentiments, would say, you betcha.”

See more…

Congress Hits New Low in Approval

The U.S. Congress reconvenes Tuesday with its lowest approval rating on record in polls dating back nearly 40 years: a new ABC News-Washington Post poll finds just 13% of Americans approve of the way Congress is handling its job, while 84% disapprove.

Bonus Quote of the Day

“Why would you want to nominate the guy who lost to the guy who lost to Obama?”

– Newt Gingrich, quoted by Politico, making the case against Mitt Romney by comparing him to Sen. John McCain.

Polls Suggest GOP Nomination is Locked Up

Though Mitt Romney has only officially won a handful of delegates, Nate Silver says history suggests he’s got the Republican presidential nomination locked up.

“On average, Mr. Romney has 35 percent of the vote in an average of four national polls completed since New Hampshire, giving him a 19-point lead over Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum. Just how safe is a 19-point lead at this point in the campaign? Based on historical precedent, it is enough to all but assure that Mr. Romney will be the Republican nominee.”

Lessons for Huntsman

John Heilemann: “If Huntsman does plan to make a future White House bid, however, there are lessons aplenty to be learned from his failed effort this time around. The problems with his campaign have been amply and ably documented over the past months: the dearth of money, the lack of rationale, the strange and self-defeating refusal during his announcement tour to identify himself as a conservative…”

“Yet beyond all that, there was a more basic problem: a candidate who seemed to think of himself as superior to the process, love it or hate it, by which we select presidential nominees and elect presidents. As I wrote in a cover story on him and Romney six months ago, Huntsman entered the race sounding more like a diplomat than a politician and acting as if presenting a glittering résumé were enough to claim the big prize. But it isn’t. Hopefully Huntsman understands that now — for it would be a shame for such a smart man to stroll out of the room no wiser than when he ambled into it.”

Meanwhile, Gawker takes a “dreary look back” at Huntsman’s campaign.

Romney Plays Down Huntsman Support

Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign “has been notably slow to promote Jon Huntsman’s endorsement, a sign they don’t see it as much of an asset in a Republican primary,” The Hill reports.

“Romney did not join Huntsman to receive his endorsement this morning, and his campaign took hours to mention Huntsman at all on Monday, first promoting an endorsement from Rep. John Mica (R-Fla.) and sending out an alert about a South Carolina campaign stop. Romney’s eventual email on Huntsman was a terse email and tweet that barely mentioned the endorsement.”

Romney Has Wide Lead in Florida

A new American Research Group poll in Florida shows Mitt Romney has jumped into a wide lead in the state’s Republican presidential primary.

Romney leads with 42%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 25%, Rick Santorum at 9%, and Ron Paul at 8%.

GOP Voters Think Gingrich Running “Nastiest” Campaign

A new Fox News poll shows 29% of Republican voters think Newt Gingrich has run the most negative campaign, leading his rivals.

In contrast, 27% say Mitt Romney has waged the most positive campaign among the GOP candidates.

Romney Pulls Away from GOP Pack

A new Fox News poll shows Mitt Romney moving out to a large national lead over his Republican presidential rivals.

Romney now leads with 40%, followed by Rick Santorum at 15%, Newt Gingrich at 14%, Ron Paul at 13%, Rick Perry at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 5%.

The results are similar to the Gallup daily tracking poll which shows Romney at 37%, Santorum at 14%, Gingrich at 13%, Paul at 12%, Perry at 5% and Hunstman at 3%.

Nebraskans Divided on Kerrey

A new Magellan Strategies (R) poll looks at the strength of former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D-NE), who is mulling a U.S. Senate run.

Kerrey’s high water mark of support is 40% and he trails both Jon Bruning (R) and Don Stenberg (R).

Key finding: 43% of Nebraskan voters have a favorable opinion of Kerrey, while 43% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 11% have no opinion.

Why Huntsman Never Caught Fire

First Read: “Despite the attention his candidacy received from the Chattering Class and despite the help from a Super PAC financed in part by his wealthy father, Huntsman never took off. A big reason was tone. He was the only GOP presidential candidate who never adopted the Tea Party’s rhetoric. Besides Ron Paul, he was the only one calling for the U.S. to withdraw from Afghanistan. And he was the only one calling for civility in politics.”

Ben Smith: “The party Huntsman imagined — modernizing, reforming, and youthful — could still be born. That might be the reaction to a second smashing defeat at Obama’s hands, or that might be where President Romney takes his re-election campaign. But it’s now hard to see Huntsman leading that change. He bet, too early, on a fantasy, and ran for the nomination of a party that doesn’t exist, at least not yet.”

Quote of the Day

“He was simply unwillingly to make the Faustian bargains with the Right that Romney has so willingly made.”

– David Axelrod, quoted by BuzzFeed, offering Democratic spin on why Jon Huntsman’s Republican campaign never caught fire.

Romney Holds Solid Lead in South Carolina

A new InsiderAdvantage poll in South Carolina shows Mitt Romney with a double digit lead over his GOP rivals.

Romney leads with 32%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 21%, Ron Paul at 14%, Rick Santorum at 13%, Jon Huntsman at 6% and Rick Perry at 5%.

A new We Ask America poll shows Romney at 31%, Gingrich at 18%, Paul at 12%, Santorum at 9%, Paul at 8%, Perry at 6% and Huntsman at 5%.

California’s Great Redistricting Correction

The Hotline: “What happens when you take party politics out of redistricting? Total chaos, apparently. Six members of California’s House delegation have now retired, blunting the state’s influence in Congress. (California’s delegation has the sixth-highest average seniority of any state’s in the House this year. Needless to say, it’ll be lower in 2013.) Plus, we’ve still got two more member-versus-member primaries and veteran GOP Rep. David Dreier without a home – and that’s just in Southern California. Both parties opposed the proposition empowering a citizen redistricting commission in 2010. After watching this cycle in California, you can bet that the next time a proposal like this comes up in another state, the parties (and the congressional delegation) will fight it even harder.”

One possible explanation: The districts in California were so oddly shaped andgerrymandered that a non-partisan effort to make sense of it all made a bigger than expected difference.