POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 6/10

Governor’s Divorce Worries Nevada Republicans

“Although Nevadans yawn at quickie divorces, drive-through weddings, topless showgirls and legalized prostitution, the divorce proceedings between Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) and his estranged wife, Dawn, have transfixed folks here like a daytime soap opera,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“The governor won’t face voters until 2010 — a political eternity — but GOP activists fret that his purported philandering could hurt the party in November. What if fed-up Republicans pare back campaign contributions — or stay home on election day? That could flip control of the state Senate, where Republicans cling to a slender majority — or even hand Nevada, which twice voted for President Bush, to Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.”

Paul Plans His Own Convention

According to NBC News, Rep. Ron Paul’s campaign is planning an event at a “large venue” with a “sizable” crowd on the Tuesday of the Republican convention week. The event will be just a couple of miles from the convention site in the St. Paul-Minneapolis area.

“The impetus for the mini convention of sorts was, in part, not getting a spot to speak at convention.”

Quote of the Day

“We’re going through a process where you get a whole bunch of names, and ya… Well, basically, it’s a Google. You just, you know, what you can find out now on the Internet. It’s remarkable, you know.”

— Sen. John McCain, quoted by The Hotline, joking about his process for vetting potential vice presidential nominees.

Bush Backers Still Wary of McCain

Sen. John McCain “may be the presumed Republican presidential nominee, but he’s still not connecting with a critical group of donors the way President Bush did during his 2004 re-election campaign,” according to CQ Politics.

Key statistic: “According to a Congressional Quarterly analysis, only about 5,000 of the 62,800 donors who gave the maximum contribution of $2,000 to Bush — roughly 8 percent — had given to McCain as of April 30.”

Don’t Tell the Candidates

“John McCain, who wrote the law banning corporate donations to the political parties, and Barack Obama, who refuses lobbyist money, will be nominated for president at conventions largely funded by industries whose Washington clout they’ve railed against on the campaign trail,” according to Bloomberg.

“Convention organizers in Denver and Minneapolis-St. Paul, hosting this year’s quadrennial gatherings, are seeking donations of as much as $5 million each, part of an effort to raise $100 million between them from private sources.”

Electoral Map Could Be Similar to 2000, 2004

Despite suggestions that there will be different swing states this year, Stuart Rothenberg says “don’t expect the 2008 presidential map to look wildly different from those of 2000 and 2004.”

“Barring a full-scale McCain meltdown or the public’s wholesale rejection of the GOP (neither of which can be ruled out), only a handful of states are prime candidates to swing from their traditional partisan bent in recent presidential elections.”

“Increased turnout by black and young voters could improve Obama’s showings in some states, as could his appeal among upscale whites. But those gains aren’t likely to be large enough to flip many states, and so far there is no evidence that red states in the Deep South are potentially winnable for Obama because of their large black population.”

 

Quote of the Day

“Sen. Obama says that I’m running for a Bush’s third terms.  It seems to me he’s running for Jimmy Carter’s second.”

— Sen. John McCain, in an interview with NBC News.

Of course, as Jonathan Martin notes, there’s an entire generation of voters who have no idea what the comparison means.

In KY-3, Yarmuth Holds Wide Lead

In Kentucky’s third congressional district, a new SurveyUSA poll finds Rep. John Yarmuth (D-KY) leads former Rep. Anne Northup (R) by 17 points, 57% to 40%.

Northup held the seat for five terms, beginning in 1996; Yarmuth won the seat by a 3-point margin in November of 2006.

Key findings: Northup runs 8 points weaker today than she did in 2006, when she lost to Yarmuth 51% to 48%. Yarmuth runs 6 points stronger than he did in 2006. In between 2006 and today, Northup ran for Governor of Kentucky and lost in the GOP primary to then incumbent Ernie Fletcher.

CQ has a good backgrounder on the district.

Obama Embraces 50 State Strategy

Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign announced in an e-mail to supporters that the campaign will compete all over the country this fall, according to USA Today.

Wrote deputy campaign manager Steve Hildebrand: “Today, I am proud to announce that our presidential campaign will be the first in a generation to deploy and maintain staff in every single state.”

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