R2000: North Dakota is a Battleground State

A new Research 2000 poll in North Dakota shows that Sen. John McCain barely edges Sen. Barack Obama, 45% to 42%.

With a four point margin of error, the race is a statistical dead heat.

Rasmussen survey two weeks ago also had the race tied at 43%.

R2000: McCain Leads by Just Nine Points in Mississippi

A new Research 2000 poll in Mississippi shows Sen. John McCain’s lead over Sen. Barack Obama is in single digits, 51% to 42%.

Key finding: Obama receives 19% of the white vote. In theory, a large turnout of African American voters could help make this state competitive.

McCain Keeps ‘Em Guessing

In yet another change of plans for Sen. John McCain, NBC News reports that former Rep. Rob Portman (R-OH) will be joining the Arizona senator tonight in Columbus, Ohio.

Is this the surprise?

McAuliffe Backs Kaine for Veep

Terry McAuliffe, who chaired Sen. Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, told Democratic activists in Virginia that Gov. Tim Kaine “would be his party’s best choice as Barack Obama’s vice presidential running mate,” according to the Falls Church News-Press.

“McAuliffe was adamant in his recommendation of Kaine… the fact that he proposed Kaine over his own candidate and long-time friend, Hillary Clinton, suggested that he knows the Clinton option is off the table.”


Fox News: Presidential Race Remains Very Tight

According to the latest Fox News poll, Sen. Barack Obama barely edges Sen. John McCain among registered voters, 41% to 40%. 

However, when asked which candidate will ultimately win in November, 51% say Obama, 27% say McCain while 22% are still unsure.

Stunning finding: 10% believe Obama is a Muslim while another 27% are unsure.

Hispanics Back Obama Overwhelmingly

Hispanic voters support Sen. Barack Obama over Sen. John McCain by 66% to 23%, according to a Pew Research survey.

Quinnipiac: McCain Gains in Key Battleground States

Sen. John McCain has inched ahead of Sen. Barack Obama in Colorado; come within inches in Minnesota and narrowed the gap in Michigan and Wisconsin, according to four simultaneous Quinnipiac polls of likely voters in these battleground states. 

  • In Colorado, McCain leads 46% to 44%.
  • In Michigan, Obama leads 46% to 42%.
  • In Minnesota, Obama leads 46% to 44%.
  • In Wisconsin, Obama leads 50% to 39%.

Most interesting finding: “Voters in each state say energy policy is more important than the war in Iraq. And by margins of 22 to 31 percentage points, voters in each state support offshore oil drilling, and by seven to 12-point margins, drilling in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge.” 

Not a Toss Up

The Crystal Ball: “While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain’s prospects could improve over the next three and a half months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed — historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months — point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic party victory in November. Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry. Again, maybe conditions will change in McCain’s favor, and if they do, they should also be accurately described by the media. But current data do not justify calling this election a toss-up.”

Obama Begins to Plan Transition

Sen. Barack Obama has directed his aides to begin planning for the transition, reports Marc Ambinder. It’s standard procedure for all presidential campaigns to begin this process early since there are less than three months between the election in November and the inauguration in Janurary.

An aide confirms that former Clinton White House Chief of Staff Podesta “will probably be asked to head the transition team, which would take over from the campaign if Obama wins in November, and would be tasked with ensuring a smooth handover of power.”

Paul Light: “The arguments for detailed and publicly acknowledged pre-convention transition planning are overwhelming. This is a situation in which the plane cannot be built while flying it.”

I hope someone sends them a copy of my book, You Won – Now What?

Obama Raising Big Money in McCain’s Home State

Sen. Barack Obama “quietly raised more money in Arizona last month for his presidential campaign than” Sen. John McCain did, according to analysis by theArizona Republic.

Obama reported $432,000 in donations from Arizonans in June, compared with McCain’s $313,000… Since last year, McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee, has raised at least $4.7 million from his fellow Arizonans, double what Obama reports from the state. But donations this year are nearly even: McCain’s Arizona donors have given him $2 million. Obama’s Arizona donors have given him just $66,000 less.”

Meanwhile, the New York Times notes that “a variety of factors have made Mr. McCain’s chances in Arizona less assured than they ordinarily would seem.”

Republicans Losing New Media War

Politico notes that as the 2008 campaign progresses, “it’s becoming increasingly clear that the absence of any websites on the right devoted to reporting — as opposed to just commenting on the news — is proving politically costly to Republicans.”

“While conservatives are devoting much of their Internet energy to analysis, their counterparts on the left are taking advantage of the rise of new media to create new institutions devoted to unearthing stories, putting new information into circulation and generally crowding the space traditionally taken by traditional media. And it almost always comes at the expense of GOP politicians.

Explore posts in the same categories: Candidates, National, Politics

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