POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 8/15

Obama Planning Event in Virginia

Marc Ambinder and Jeff Greenfield report that an Obama advance team is headed to Richmond, VA to prepare for a visit next Thursday. 

“For some reason, I don’t think this is IT — THE vice presidential announcement.  It could happen somewhere else… on another day..– Wednesday —  in another state… and not involve anything related to Virginia. Maybe Richmond is a stop on the vice presidential tour — a tour that begins elsewhere the day before.”

Obama’s Wednesday schedule is not yet known.

Udall Leads in Colorado

Rep. Mark Udall (D-CO) holds a 6 point lead over opponent Bob Schaffer (R) in Colorado’s U.S. Senate race, 44% to 38%, according to a new CBS4/Rocky Mountain News poll.

A new Rasmussen Reports poll also gives Udall a six point lead, 47% to 41%.

McCain and Lobbyists

David Nather: “One of the biggest mysteries about John McCain, the man who claims to be the enemy of powerful lobbyists and special interests, is why he has surrounded himself with lobbyists and former lobbyists on his campaign team.”

Clues from the Sunday Shows?

The Sunday morning political talk shows have booked many of those on the public short lists of vice presidential contenders as their guests this weekend.

Meet the Press: Lousiana Gov.  Bobby Jindal (R) and Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine (D)

Face the Nation: Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) and Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN)

Fox News Sunday: Former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge (R)

Late Edition: New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D)

This Week: Not yet announced.

Jackson Will Not Speak at Convention

After speaking at the last six Democratic conventions, Rev. Jesse Jackson tells Essence magazine that he will attend this year but not play a formal role.

On his recent comments critical of Obama caught on a live microphone, Jackson said, “It should not have happened. What was private talk became public controversy, and I am embarrassed by that. There is no virtue in that kind of talk, and it should always be discouraged. My appeal even then was that responsibility is a significant message, but our needs require real government intervention and private sector incentives to address the issues of unemployment, building affordable housing and making education more affordable, which really was my point. It was a very painful period for me to have gone through that. The good news is that it’s behind us now.”

Overseas Troops Backed Obama

According to an analysis of campaign contributions by the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics, Sen. Barack Obama has received nearly six times as much money from troops deployed overseas at the time of their contributions than has Sen. John McCain.

Obama Tries Late Night Infomercials

“The Obama campaign is the first to use a long-form infomercial during the 2008 presidential campaign,” according to Ad Age. “If you hadn’t noticed, that may have been because the nearly 30-minute program aired at 1:30 a.m. Aug. 10 on ION Television.”

“The mostly biographical 28-minute, 30-second program included scenes of the Illinois senator’s keynote speech to the 2004 Democratic National Convention as well as scenes from other campaign appearances along with background about Mr. Obama and frequent call-in numbers.”

Obama Leaning Towards More Experienced Pick?

Lynn Sweet: “I’m just passing on the latest I’m hearing — that Sen. Joe Biden is moving up on the list of potential running mates for presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama. While Obama’s heart may go towards Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine — his head takes him to a more experienced pick, a Sen. Evan Bayh or Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.”

Edwards Strategist Weighs In

Joe Trippi: “John Edwards didn’t lose it for Hillary Clinton. Believe it or not, Barack Obama won it.”

Statistical Tie?

An interesting debate broke out in the comments on the post reporting the latest Pew Research poll that showed the presidential race narrowing. While the pollster claimed the race was now even because Obama’s 46% to 43% lead over McCain was within the survey’s margin of error, this is very misleading.

The survey clearly shows the race narrowing, but suggesting it’s a “statistical tie” or “deadlocked” is not accurate. As Kevin Drum noted, what we’re really interested in is “the probability that the difference between the two candidates is greater than zero — in other words, that one candidate is genuinely ahead of the other.”

So instead of reporting that any result within the margin of error is a tie — something we’re often guilty of — it’s more informative to show how probable it is that a candidate is actually leading.

A simple spreadsheet shows that in the case of the Pew Research poll, there is a 94% probability that Obama is actually leading McCain.

Another Nailbiter in Washington

According to a new SurveyUSA poll, the rematch for governor of Washington looks like another close one with Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) edging Dino Rossi (R), 50% to 48%, within the survey’s 3.7 percentage point margin of sampling error. 

Gregoire has consistently received 49% or 50% of the vote, and Rossi has consistently received 46% or 47%, until today’s poll, where Rossi hits 48% for the first time.

However, in the presidential race, Sen. Barack Obama has a solid 51% to 44% leadover Sen. John McCain.

Huckabee Knocks Romney

It seems the 2012 Republican presidential race is already under way with Mike Huckabee shooting down the idea of Mitt Romney as a possible running mate for Sen. John McCain, according to CBS News.

Said Huckabee: “I think a lot of people, not just social conservatives, but a lot of the Republicans I know are not necessarily comfortable with Romney. But it has nothing to do with religion. It has everything to do with inconsistencies in positions he’s held, and that’s it.”

Clinton Will Be Put Up for Nomination

Sen. Hillary Clinton’s name will be put up for nomination at the Democratic National Convention, according to Marc Ambinder.

Within the past week, Clinton advisers informed the Obama team that many of Clinton’s staunchest supporters felt strongly that something had to be done, and that Clinton had concluded that, in part for the sake of unity, their wishes ought to be respected.  They heard back immediately: the Obama campaign had always been open to having her name placed in nomination alongside his.”

However, “the exact choreography has not been worked out.”

Political Insider on the Colbert Report

The Colbert Report used the post about Sen. John McCain’s use of Wikipedia as the basis for a skit last night. Very amusing.

 

Quote of the Day

“The Greek tragedy aspect of this election could turn out to be, George Bush defeats John McCain twice.”

— Former McCain strategist John Weaver, quoted by Texas Monthly.

 

Rove Sees Four Battlegrounds

Karl Rove says Colorado, Virginia, Ohio and Michigan will be the true battleground states in the presidential election.

“Other states will see serious competition, including Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, Missouri and Wisconsin. But Colorado, Virginia, Michigan and Ohio are likely to be the center of the action. To win, Mr. Obama needs to pick up 18 electoral votes more than John Kerry received, meaning Mr. Obama must carry Colorado or Virginia and add another small state to his column. If Mr. McCain carries Michigan as well as Ohio, it would make Mr. Obama’s Electoral College math very difficult.”

Edwards Misjudged

Walter Shapiro on John Edwards: “I naively believed that I knew Edwards as well as I understood anyone in the political center ring. Yet I never saw this sex scandal coming — partly because I accepted the mythology that surrounded the Edwards’ marriage and partly because I assumed that any hint of a wandering eye would have come out during the 2004 campaign. But then Rielle Hunter and the National Enquirer brought us all into the real world.”

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Explore posts in the same categories: Candidates, National, Politics, Virginia

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