POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 9/22

CNN Poll: Obama Improves National Lead

A new CNN/Opinion Research Poll finds that by a 2-to-1 margin, Americans blame Republicans “for the financial crisis that has swept across the country the past few weeks — one factor that may have contributed to an apparent increase in Barack Obama’s edge over John McCain in the race for the White House.”

Obama now leads McCain among likely voters, 51% to 47%.

McCain Conference Call Backfires

Sen. John McCain’s top aides “convened a conference call today to complain of being called ‘liars.’ They pressed the media to scrutinize specific elements of Sen. Barack Obama’s record.”

But, according to Politico, “the call was so rife with simple, often inexplicable misstatements of fact that it may have had the opposite effect: Deepening the perception, dangerous to McCain, that he and his aides have little regard for factual accuracy.”

Suffolk Poll: Nevada is Very Tight

A new Suffolk University poll in Nevada shows Sen. John McCain just barely ahead of Sen. Barack Obama, 46% to 45%.

Interesting: “The recent Wall Street turmoil has not helped matters for the Republican Party. When likely voters were asked which political party — if any — deserved blame for the roiling economy, 41 percent blamed the Republicans; 16 percent blamed Democrats; 27 percent said neither; and 16 percent were undecided.”

Upcoming Polls

As the Today Show visits key battleground states this week, NBC News/Mason Dixon will release polls from each state. Today, it was Pennsylvania. Tomorrow, it’s Florida; Wednesday is Virginia, and Thursday is Michigan.

On Tuesday, Quinnipiac publishes results of new polling done in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Also tomorrow, Public Policy Polling has a poll from Colorado.

PPP Poll: Obama Way Ahead in New Mexico

A new Public Policy Polling survey in New Mexico shows Sen. Barack Obama with a double-digit lead over Sen. John McCain, 53% to 42%.

Key findings: “Since New Mexico has a heavy Hispanic population, all Barack Obama needs to do with white voters in the state is keep it somewhat competitive. Right now John McCain has only a 49-47 lead with them, and combined with Obama’s 59-35 lead with Hispanics that adds up a strong overall advantage for the Democrats.”

“Sarah Palin is not playing well with New Mexico voters. 46% say her selection made them less likely to vote for John McCain, compared to 38% who say it made them more likely to do so. Among independents her disapproval rating is 47%, and Obama has a 51-35 advantage with that group.”

History Shows Little Bump from Debates

Tom Holbrook looks at historical polling data around presidential debates and notes that “the norm is for very little swing in candidate support following debates. Across all thirteen presidential debates the average absolute change in candidate support was 1 percentage point.” 

“There are a few notable exceptions, of course. Two that stand out are the second debate in 1992, following which George H.W. Bush lost 2 points, and first debate of 2004, after which George W. bush lost 2.26 points. Other debates with above average (but still small) vote shifts are the first debate in 1996 and the second debates in 1988 and 2000. Each of these debates has its own story, and I’m sure we can all think of anecdotes to explain the bumps and wiggles.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

“I want to be done playing this lady Nov. 5. So if anybody can help me be done playing this lady Nov. 5, that would be good for me.”

— Tina Fey, quoted by the Huffington Post, on brilliantly playing Gov. Sarah Palin forSaturday Night Live.

On a related note, CQ has started a blog collecting some of the best political humorof the campaign.

SurveyUSA: Obama Opens Lead in Virginia

A new SurveyUSA poll in Virginia shows Sen. Barack Obama has moved to a six point lead over Sen. John McCain, 51% to 45%. Compared to a similar poll two weeks ago, Obama is up 4, McCain is down 4.

Key findings: “In the Washington DC suburbs, Obama now polls at 59% and leads McCain by 21 points. Obama leads by 10 in Southeast VA and by 4 in Central VA. McCain’s regional advantage is confined to the Shenandoah, where he is 14 points atop Obama.”

“Among women, Obama led by 6 points before Sarah Palin was named to the GOP ticket, now leads by 16.”

EarlierARG shows McCain leading by two points.

Will Sarah Palin Meet the Press?

Andrew Sullivan: “It is now 24 days since she was announced as a potential president of the United States next January and she still hasn’t given a news conference or has any plans to hold one. This black-out of all serious press access has never happened in modern American political history before.”

Obama, McCain Prepare for Debate

Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain will spend much of this week preparing for their first debate on Friday night.

The Wall Street Journal notes McCain “will spar this week in mock debates” with former Maryland lieutenant governor Michael Steele who will play Obama “and use many of his speaking patterns, tactics and body language.” Obama “will practice with Greg Craig, a Washington lawyer and former official in the Clinton administration who is one of his few gray-haired advisers.”

On the day of the debate, McCain “will host a town-hall event and take a short nap” while Obama “will work out or shoot hoops.”

Obama Closes Offices in North Dakota

Sen. Barack Obama, “who has deployed more than 50 staffers in North Dakota in an attempt to become the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state since 1964, is pulling out,” the AP reports.

The Obama campaign “confirmed Sunday that the campaign’s 11 North Dakota offices are being shut and its staffers dispatched to Minnesota and Wisconsin.”

Lifetime Poll: Palin Helps McCain with Women

A new Lifetime Television poll finds the selection of Gov. Sarah Palin as Sen. John McCain’s running mate “has greatly increased the GOP ticket’s appeal to women.”

Key finding: McCain-Palin holds a 44% to 42% lead over Obama-Biden on who has a “better understanding of women and what is important” to them. Obama held a 52% to 18% lead on the question in July.

“Breaking it down further, age was biggest determining factor. Young women, ages 18-34, chose the Democratic ticket as being more empathetic to their needs, while women aged 35-64 went for the McCain-Palin ticket.”

ARG Poll: McCain Holds Small Lead in Virginia

A new American Research Group poll in Virginia finds Sen. John McCain leading Sen. Barack Obama by two points, 48% to 46%, in what could be a key state in this year’s presidential election.

Bush Approval Falls to 19%

A new American Research Group poll found that just 19% of Americans approve of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president and 76% disapprove. When it comes to Bush’s handling of the economy, 17% approve and 78% disapprove. 

Bush’s overall approval rating of 19% is tied for Bush’s lowest in ARG monthly polling since Bush took office.

Early Voting Begins in Some States

There are 42 days until the presidential election but some people have already voted.

According to USA Today, “voters by the thousands will begin casting ballots for president this week in an early voting process that’s expected to set records this year.”

“Residents of Virginia, Kentucky and Georgia are among the first in the nation eligible to vote in person, as well as by mail. During the next few weeks, at least 34 states and the District of Columbia will allow early in-person voting for Nov. 4 elections.”

Quote of the Day

“The magnitude of what happened on Wall Street is hard for anyone to absorb. Maybe it hasn’t fully sunk in because the image of real economic calamity is so based on the 1920s and the Depression. Maybe things will change as people begin to look at what has happened to their retirement accounts over the next few weeks.”

— Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), quoted by Salon.

Palin Continues to Attract Large Crowds

Gov. Sarah Palin drew a crowd of nearly 60,000 people to a rally she held in the battleground state of Florida, according to the Fort Myers News-Press.

“Admiring throngs mobbed the Palin family’s arrival and departure, snapping souvenir pictures. Autograph seekers thrust campaign signs, caps with the McCain-Palin logo and copies of magazines with her face on their covers, and the Palins responded warmly.”

UpdateJonathan Martin notes it was a local fire marshal that estimated 60,000. “But reporters on the ground, including AP’s Brendan Farrington and my colleague Ken Vogel, would only say “tens of thousands,” suggesting the marshal’s estimate was on the high side.   The St. Pete Times’s Adam Smith had another fire official in the crowd say it was about 25,000.”

NBC News Poll: Obama Holds Small Lead in Keystone State

A new NBC News poll in Pennsylvania shows Sen. Barack Obama just edging Sen. John McCain, 46% to 44%.

Miami Herald Poll: McCain Holds Small Edge in Florida

A new Miami Herald poll finds Sen. John McCain “is nursing a narrow lead” over Sen. Barack Obama in Florida, 47% to 45%.

Key finding: “The survey of 800 likely voters echoed the economic jitters of the nation, as 43 percent of voters said the economy should be the next president’s top concern. That’s a three-to-one margin over the next two top issues: managing the war in Iraq, at 14 percent, and protecting us from terrorism, at 12 percent.”

Said pollster Tom Eldon: “Obama is in a position to improve his poll numbers, given the confidence in his handling of the economy.”

How Many Cars Do You Own?

Newsweek checked vehicle registration records for both Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama and found that when you include the candidates’ spouses, McCain owns 13 cars, Obama 1.

Research 2000: Obama Catches McCain in Florida

Sen. Barack Obama has pulled virtually even with Sen. John McCain in Florida, according to a new Research 2000 poll

McCain now just barely edges Obama 46% to 45%.

Said pollster Del Ali: “It’s competitive, no question, and obviously the economy is the top issue. What took place on Wall Street this week helped Obama in Florida. His numbers went up with each day we polled. For him to win Florida, it’s obviously important for the economy to stay the top issue.”

Research 2000: Obama Cruising in Iowa

A new Research 2000 poll in Iowa shows Sen. Barack Obama way ahead of Sen. John McCain, 53% to 39%.

Said pollster Del Ali: “This is the state that started it all for Obama. He’s very popular here.”

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Explore posts in the same categories: Candidates, National, Politics, Virginia

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