Fox News Poll: Obama Ahead in Key Red States

The latest Fox News/Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Barack Obama holds a narrow advantage ranging from two to five percentage points in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Missouri, and he is tied with McCain in North Carolina. President Bush won all five of these states in 2004.

Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 46%

Missouri: Obama 50%, McCain 47%

North Carolina: Obama 48%, McCain 48%

Ohio: Obama 49%, McCain 47%

Virginia: Obama 50%, McCain 47%

SurveyUSA: McCain Up By Eight in Georgia

A new SurveyUSA poll in Georgia finds Sen. John McCain ahead of Sen. Barack Obama by eight points, 51% to 43%.

Interesting: “Early and absentee voting began in Georgia on 09/22/08. Among the 18% of Georgia voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Obama leads by 6 points; among those who have not yet voted, McCain leads by 11.”

In the state’s closely watch U.S. Senate race, Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) clings to a narrow lead over challenger Jim Martin (D), 46% to 43%.

Democracy Corps: Crisis Hits Republicans Hardest

The latest Democracy Corps survey in the congressional battleground finds that the nation’s deepening financial crisis “is taking its toll, not on incumbents, but specifically on Republicans, resulting in a significant shift in the electoral playing field in the Democrats’ favor.”

  • In the 10 Democratic seats that might have been vulnerable, Democratic candidates have vaulted ahead from a dead heat to an impressive 12-point advantage (54 to 42 percent).
  • Across the 50 Republican-held districts surveyed, Democratic candidates are fighting their Republican opponents to a draw – unchanged from a week ago. But Obama has moved into the lead in these Republicans seats, creating a top-of-ticket help in this unlikely place.

“These results are produced by an environment that has become even more toxic for Republicans. The proportion of voters who believe the country is off on the wrong track is at a new record in this Republican battleground and the favorability of both parties has declined but the Republicans more so. John McCain’s standing has plummeted even in these Republican-leaning areas.”

A Sign McCain is Losing Florida?

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R), “who helped deliver Florida for McCain during the primary, said he will be spending more time minding the state’s weak economy than campaigning for the Arizona senator in the final weeks before Election Day,” according to the Miami Herald.

Said Crist: ”When I have time to help, I’ll try to do that.”

Crist traveled around the state last week with Gov. Sarah Palin but over the weekend “he skipped a McCain football rally and instead went to Disney World.”

Hat tip: Andrew Sullivan.

SurveyUSA: Obama Takes Lead in Missouri

A new SurveyUSA in Missouri finds Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain, 51% to 43%.

“The contest in Missouri has swung 10-points to Obama since SurveyUSA’s last track point, 3 weeks ago. Then, McCain led by 2.”

Mahoney Follows Foley Into Scandal

Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-FL) “agreed to a $121,000 payment to a former mistress who worked on his staff and was threatening to sue him,” ABC News reports.

“Mahoney, who is married, also promised the woman… a $50,000 a year job for two years at the agency that handles his campaign advertising.”

“Mahoney was elected two years ago following the abrupt resignation of his disgraced predecessor, Republican Mark Foley, whose lewd internet messages to teenage boys and Congressional pages created a national outrage.”

Marist Poll: Obama Leads in Ohio, Pennsylvania

Two new Marist Polls show Sen. Barack Obama ahead of Sen. John McCain in key battleground states.

Ohio: Obama 49%, McCain 45%

Pennsylvania: Obama 53%, McCain 41%

Quote of the Day

“A campaign at war with itself cannot fight its opponent effectively.”

— GOP strategist Ed Rollins, writing for CNN, using the presidential campaigns of Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. John McCain as examples.

Kerry’s Landslide

Inside the Bubble takes you into Sen. John Kerry’s campaign war room four years ago where you can see his closest advisers privately celebrate what they thought we be a certain victory — one some even called a “landslide.” It wasn’t until well after midnight that they knew they were wrong.

You can view the must-see film for free here.

McCain Backs Off New Economic Proposals

“Despite signals that Sen. John McCain would have new prescriptions for the economic crisis after a weekend of meetings, his campaign said Sunday that Mr. McCain… would not have any more proposals this week unless developments call for some,” the New York Times reports.

“The signs of internal confusion came as the campaign was under pressure from state party leaders to sharpen his message on the economy and at least blunt the advantage that Democrats traditionally have on the issue in hard times.”

“Participants in the meeting refused to say what happened,” according to Politico

“The news dismayed McCain supporters and surrogates, who had thought the fresh policy would help him gain traction on the campaign’s most vital issue, and dilute the impression that he was relying solely on attacks in the home stretch.”

Meanwhile, Time notes Sen. Barack Obama will give a “major economic policy address” this afternoon in Ohio.

Krugman Wins Nobel Prize

Paul Krugman, a professor at Princeton University and an Op-Ed columnist for theNew York Times, was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science, according to the New York Times.

Said Krugman: “It’s been an extremely weird day, but weird in a positive way.”

Obama Hits Battleground States Harder

Sen. Barack Obama, his running mate and his wife “have appeared at twice as many events in swing states as their Republican counterparts, which may help explain the Democrat’s lead in many battleground-state polls,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The gap makes a difference in the amount of press that each ticket gets in critical markets — and is mirrored by a similar disparity in TV advertising…. The effect: The Democrats are being seen much more often, in free news coverage and in paid advertising, in the states that will determine the winner.”

WP/ABC Poll: Bush Craters, Obama Benefits

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. John McCain by ten points nationally, 53% to 43%.

“Though every race is different, no presidential candidate has come back from an October deficit this large in pre-election polls dating to 1936.” 

Other interesting findings: 

  • A record 90% of registered voters say the country is seriously off on the wrong track, the most since this question first was asked in 1973
  • Bush’s 23% job approval rating has now fallen below Nixon’s lowest 
  • Bush’s 73% disapproval is at an all-time record
  • 92% of Americans are following the election closely

Forum Poll: Obama Leads in North Dakota

Sen. Barack Obama has taken the lead over Sen. John McCain in North Dakota, 45% to 43%, according to a new Forum poll

“The poll indicates McCain’s once-comfortable lead in North Dakota has melted away as Obama is the widely favored choice among voters who consider the economy the most pressing issue.”

Ayers Attack Unfounded

Politifact looks at Sen. John McCain’s assertions that Sen. Barack Obama and 1960s radical Bill Ayers ran a educational foundation together.

“This attack is false, but it’s more than that — it’s malicious. It unfairly tars not just Obama, but all the other prominent, well-respected Chicagoans who also volunteered their time to the foundation. They came from all walks of life and all political backgrounds, and there’s ample evidence their mission was nothing more than improving ailing public schools in Chicago. Yet in the heat of a political campaign they have been accused of financing radicalism. That’s pants on fire wrong.

Nonetheless, Politico notes the RNC will make a new push on their ad linking Obama and Ayers.

So Much For Downplaying Expectations

Sen. John McCain vowed to “whip” Sen. Barack Obama’s “you-know-what” when the two presidential candidates meet Wednesday in their final televised debate, according to the Associated Press.

Said McCain: “We’re going to spend a lot of time and after I whip his you-know-what in this debate, we’re going to be going out 24/7.”

Quote of the Day

“He has to make the case that he’s different than Bush and better than Obama on the economy. If he doesn’t win that case, it’s all over, and it’s going to be a very bad year for Republicans.”

— Newt Gingrich, quoted by the AP, on Sen. John McCain’s presidential campaign.

Exchange of the Day

Obama chief strategist David Axelrod and McCain campaign manager Rick Davissparred on Fox News Sunday: 

Axelrod: “Do you sell access to Senator McCain?”

Davis: “No, I don’t.”

Axelrod: “Is that how you’ve made millions of dollars?”

Davis: “Not at all.”

Axelrod: “You’ve never done that? You’ve never — nobody’s ever been told they oughta hire you if they want to get to Senator McCain? I’m asking you a question.”

Davis: “Character assassination has become the hallmark of the Obama campaign.”

Mason-Dixon: Obama Grabs Small Lead in Nevada

Sen. Barack Obama has the slimmest of leads over Sen. John McCain in Nevada, 47% to 45%, according to a new Review-Journal poll.

Said pollster Brad Coker: “It’s still really, really close. Obama has a little bit of a lead, but it’s not as wide as his lead in most of the national polls. Nevada’s still very much a battleground, very close and very interesting.”

Obama Closing Deal in Pennsylvania

Sen. Barack Obama “has nearly closed the deal in Pennsylvania, as anxiety over the economy overcomes lingering concerns about his inexperience and qualms about his race, according to more than three dozen political operatives, pollsters and analysts across the state,” the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. “A surge in Democratic voter registration is also helping.”

Nonetheless, Politico says “the McCain campaign continues to signal it intends to contest the state and its 21 electoral votes to the end. It is a high-risk, high-return endeavor: Pennsylvania represents a costly gambit, one that siphons resources from must-win states such as Ohio and Florida, but a win here would enable McCain to lose a few other states that George W. Bush carried and still capture the White House.”

Time notes the Clintons will campaign with the Bidens in Scranton, PA.

Palin Booed at Hockey Game

When Hockey mom and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin “dropped the ceremonial first puck at the Flyers’ opener on Saturday night at the Wachovia Center, she was greeted by resounding (almost deafening) boos,” the New York Times reports.

The Wilmington News Journal says “it seemed like there was an avalanche of boos when she walked out — boos that were almost immediately drowned out by blaring, bombastic music.”

GOP Leaders See Defeat for McCain

The New York Times suggests Republican leaders are very worried that Sen. John McCain is on his way to losing the presidential election.

“Again and again, party leaders said in interviews that while they still believed that Mr. McCain could win over voters in the next 30 days, they were concerned that he and his advisers seemed to be adrift in dealing with an extraordinarily challenging political battleground and a crisis on Wall Street.”

Said former congressman Vin Weber: “The main thing he needs to do is focus on a single message — a single, concise or clear-cut message, and stick with that over the next 30 days, regardless of what happens. He’s had a lot of attack lines. But it’s time to choose.”

PPP Poll: Obama Way Ahead in Colorado

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Colorado shows Sen. Barack Obama now leading Sen. John McCainby ten points, 52% to 42%.

Key findings: Obama is now leading 71% to 21% with Hispanic voters, a considerable improvement from a 57% to 36% edge in PPP’s survey of the state taken three weeks ago. The white vote is exactly the same as it was previously, a 48% to 47% advantage for Obama.

Analysis: “The numbers paint a picture that shows it nearly impossible for McCain to win the state at this point. Only 6% of voters are undecided, and among those who do have a preference currently only 6% say there’s any chance they could change their mind. Obama’s lead at this point is such that McCain would have to win virtually every undecided, keep everyone who could change their mind currently supporting him in his camp, and win over almost 100% of current Obama supporters who say they aren’t totally committed to him. The chances of all those things happening? Not very good.”


Oliver Stone’s Latest

W [Theatrical Release]According to the Wall Street Journal, Oliver Stone’s new drama about President George W. Bush, “which hits theaters next weekend, is being financed by a patchwork of global investors — and hardly a dime of U.S. studio money… the studios turned their backs on the film, which Mr. Stone attributes to fear of the subject matter — a sitting president.”

W traces the rise of the young Bush, from his fraternity days to his born-again Christian transformation, while also focusing on his presidency — specifically the run-up to the invasion of Iraq. The studios say they passed on the film because they don’t think the public is interested in Bush: The Movie.”

The Los Angeles Times talks to Stone about why he made the movie.

McCain’s Wise Man

Why is Rep. John Lewis’ condemnation of Sen. John McCain’s campaign important?

Political Wire reader reminds us that, just a couple months ago, McCain calledLewis one of the “three wisest people in his life.”

Tracking Poll Update

Sen. Barack Obama is holding solid leads in nearly every tracking poll of the presidential race and has broken 50% in four of them.

Diageo/Hotline: Obama 50%, McCain 40%

Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 42%

Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 45%

Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 40%

Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 44%

Ohio Newspaper Poll: McCain Leads By Two Points

The latest Ohio Newspaper Poll shows Sen. John McCain clinging to a narrow lead over Sen. Barack Obama, 48% to 46%.

Last month, McCain led by six points.

Said pollster Eric Rademacher: “We’ve gone from a race that looked increasingly like it was going toward John McCain to a race that now is more or less even.”

Quote of the Day

“What I am seeing reminds me too much of another destructive period in American history. Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin are sowing the seeds of hatred and division, and there is no need for this hostility in our political discourse.”

— Rep. John Lewis, quoted by Politico, comparing  the “negative tone” of McCain’s campaign to that of segregationist George Wallace in the 1960s.

In a statement, McCain called Lewis’ comment “shocking and beyond the pale.” 

Meanwhile, Sen. Barack Obama backed Lewis’ statement about the “hateful rhetoric” seen at McCain’s rallies but said he didn’t believe McCain or his policies are “in any way comparable to George Wallace or his segregationist policies.”

Research 2000: Obama Up By Five in Florida

A new Research 2000 poll in Florida finds Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain, 49% to 44%. 

Key finding: “Obama, long the favorite of the youngest votes, now leads 72-year-old McCain by 7 percentage points among the 60-plus age group. The oldest voters were about equally divided in last month’s poll.”

InsiderAdvantage: Obama Leads in Ohio

A new InsiderAdvantage poll in Ohio finds Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain, 49% to 44%.

InsiderAdvantage: Georgia Senate Race Deadlocked

The latest InsiderAdvantage poll in Georgia finds challenger Jim Martin (D) has pulled into a tie with Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), 45% to 45%.

The presidential race has also tightened with Sen. John McCain just edging Sen. Barack Obama, 49% to 46%.

Newsweek Poll: Obama Way Out In Front

The global financial crisis has caused a dramatic shift in the latest Newsweek poll. With four weeks left in the presidential campaign, Sen. Barack Obama now leads Sen. John McCain by double digits, 52% to 41%, among registered voters.

Just a month ago, the same poll showed the race tied.

Key findings: “Underlying Obama’s surge in support: An historic boiling over of dissatisfaction with the status quo. An astounding 86% of voters now say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States, while a mere 10% say they are satisfied. That’s the highest wrong track/right track ratio ever recorded in the Newsweek poll.”

Palin Abused Her Power

report from Alaska’s legislature finds that Gov. Sarah Palin “unlawfully abused her authority” in firing Alaska’s public safety commissioner Walt Monegan. The 263 page report concludes that a “family grudge” was a contributing reason for the dismissal.

“Monegan says he was dismissed as retribution for resisting pressure to fire a state trooper involved in a bitter divorce with the governor’s sister. Palin says Monegan was fired as part of a legitimate budget dispute,” the AP explains.

In an attempt to preempt the news, the McCain campaign issued their own report  clearing Palin.

Palin Schedules Tour of West Virginia

Perhaps ARG’s recent poll in West Virginia was on target.

CNN: “In what may be another signal that the troubled economy is forcing John McCain’s campaign to play electoral map defense, Sarah Palin has scheduled a bus tour for Sunday through West Virginia, a state that’s been leaning red throughout this presidential race.”

Fox News: Obama Leads By Seven Nationally

Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. John McCain by 46% to 39%, according to a Fox News poll of registered voters.

Key findings: “Obama’s advantage comes mainly from doing better among women, blacks, young voters, those with a college degree, and unmarried voters. He has increased his edge over McCain among women to 16 percentage points, up from a 4-point edge last month.”

Most GOP Insiders Think Obama Will Win

The National Journal‘s Political Insiders Poll finds that 80% of Republicans believe there’s a high likelihood that Sen. Barack Obama will win the presidential election.

In addition, 67% of Republicans said Obama did more to help himself in the second presidential debate than did Sen. John McCain.

Bonus Quote of the Day

“I don’t know if you really want to turn a campaign into a CNBC news show on the stock market.”

— McCain campaign manager Rick Davis, in a conference call with reporters, on why Sen. John McCain isn’t talking much about the financial crisis.

Coleman Suspends All Negative Ads

Sen. Norm Coleman’s (R-MN) U.S. Senate campaign announced it is pulling all of its negative advertisements off the airwaves, according to The Hill.

Said Coleman: “I decided that I was not all that interested in returning to Washington for six years based on the judgment of voters that I was not as bad as the other two guys. I want folks to vote for me, not against the other guys.”

No Harry Truman

Republican attempts to compare themselves to Harry Truman are wildly misguided, writes presidential historian Robert Dallek.

“The rush to embrace Truman tells us more about contemporary politics than about the realities of his career. The circumstances and attitudes of Bush, McCain, and Palin, have little if any in common with Truman’s. It seems safe to say that Harry Truman would not have subscribed to Bush’s effort to rescue his historical reputation through suggestions that, like Truman, he has pursued wise policies that will eventually be vindicated. Nor would he have looked kindly on McCain’s and Palin’s use of the Truman memory to win an election.”

Democrats Have Registration Edge

An Associated Press survey of election officials nationwide “found that as of Oct. 1, the number of registered Democrats had grown by nearly 5 percent since 2004 — outpacing overall population growth in the 28 states where information on voter registration by party was available for 2004 and 2008. During the same time, the GOP lost more than 2 percent of its registered voters.”

Explore posts in the same categories: Candidates, National, Politics, Virginia

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