POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 10/15

Bonus Quote of the Day

“There’s no question Western Pennsylvania is a racist area.”

— Rep. John Murtha (D-PA), quoted by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Nonetheless, Murtha thinks Sen. Barack Obama will win Pennsylvania, “but I don’t think it’s going to be a runaway.”

The One Issue Campaign

“Americans are concerned about the nation’s economic problems almost to the exclusion of every other issue, and they register the lowest level of national satisfaction ever measured in a Pew Research Center survey. Just 11% say they are satisfied with the way things are going in the country — down 14 points in the past month alone.”

In the presidential race, Obama leads McCain, 49% to 42%.

Quote of the Day

“That was my biggest boneheaded move.”

— Sen. Barack Obama, in an interview with the New York Times Magazine, on saying during the primaries that small-town voters had grown “bitter” over lost jobs, which caused them to “cling to guns or religion or antipathy toward people who aren’t like them.”

InsiderAdvantage: Obama Ahead in Key Red States

A new set of InsiderAdvantage polls show Sen. Barack Obama leading in three key red states — Florida, Nevada and North Carolina — and very close behind Sen. John McCain in West Virginia. 

Florida: Obama 48%, McCain 44%

Nevada: Obama 49%, McCain 46%

North Carolina: Obama 48%, McCain 46%

West Virginia: McCain 49%, Obama 47%

McCain Pulling Ads in Wisconsin?

The Republican National Committee “hasn’t booked ads for the next week in Wisconsin TV markets after running a series of spots attacking Barack Obama and congressional Dems,” according to WisPolitics.com.

“The decision comes amid speculation on whether Republicans may pull back in Wisconsin after several polls in the past week showed Obama up over John McCain by double digits.”

UpdateNBC News shoots down the report and confirms that “the Republican nominee’s team has bought ad time in markets there next week.”

Suffolk Poll: Obama Holds Edge in Colorado

A new Suffolk University poll in Colorado finds Sen. Barack Obama four points ahead of Sen. John McCain, 47% to 43%.

Said pollster David Paleologos: “Despite a small Obama lead, Colorado is up for grabs. When the history of this election is written, one common thread will be how voters have repeatedly up-ended the conventional wisdom.”

Landslide?

Based on analysis of the latest polls, Dick Morris forecasts a landslide for Sen. Barack Obama.

“If the election took place this week, it would be a wipe out of major proportions. Even McCain’s home state of Arizona has to be classified as leaning toward Obama. McCain, as of now, can be certain of carrying just eight states with a combined total of only 36 electoral votes.”

Obama Talking Points Made Public

The Obama campaign accidentally sent pre-debate talking points that were “not for distribution” to a group of reporters, ABC News reports. 

To be fair, the points are not much different than the public memo they released this morning.

Robocalls Slam Obama’s Patriotism

The McCain campaign and the RNC “are pumping new robocalls into North Carolina that question Barack Obama’s patriotism by charging that he and his fellow Dems put ‘Hollywood before America,’ another sign that Republicans are seriously worried about losing the traditionally red state to Obama,” according to TPM.

CNN/Time: Obama Makes Gains in Red States

A new set of CNN/Time polls show Sen. Barack Obama is making crucial gains in once reliable Republicans states and has forced Sen. John McCain into playing defense.

Colorado: Obama 51%, McCain 47%

Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 46% 

Georgia: McCain 53%, Obama 45%

Missouri: McCain 49%, Obama 48%

Virginia: Obama 53%, McCain 43%

Mahoney Linked to Second Woman

Hours after Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-FL) “addressed a report that he had an affair with a former aide and paid her to keep quiet about it, details of a purported tryst with a second woman surfaced,” the AP reports.

Though Mahoney “did not directly mention allegations first reported by ABC News that he had been involved with the former aide, he issued a statement apologizing to his family but denying he’d done anything illegal.”

“Later Tuesday, a person close to his campaign told The Associated Press that Mahoney also was having an affair with a second woman around the same time.”

Meanwhile, The Hill reports Democrats have abandoned Mahoney’s campaign by pulling resources out of FL-16.

Obama Campaign Sets Expectations

Political Insider: The Obama campaign releases a very interesting memo setting up tonight’s presidential debate.

The subject: John McCain’s plan to “whip” “That One’s” “you-know-what”

The 12 Step Bush Recovery Program

A Lifesaving Guide to Shaking Off the Horrors of the Last Eight Years, with Practical Advice on Relapse, Remission, and RecountsIn the mail: The 12-Step Bush Recovery Program: A Lifesaving Guide to Shaking Off the Horrors of the Last Eight Years, with Practical Advice on Relapse, Remission, and Recounts by Gene Stone.

“George W. Bush isn’t just a nuisance, he’s a problem that afflicts nearly three out of four Americans. So if you or someone you love has a Bush problem, know this: You don’t have to face it alone. Help is within reach. With The 12-Step Bush Recovery Program, you can share in the promise of a better you, a better America, a better world, and a better solar system.”

On Polling West Virginia

Last week’s ARG poll showing Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain in West Virginia was generally dismissed as unlikely.

Public Policy Polling notes the difficultly of polling the state: “If someone can get me a random sample of people who voted in the 2004 general election, 2006 general election, or 2008 primary in West Virginia then we will poll it. Concern about being able to get a sample of sufficient quality there is what makes us, and I’m guessing other companies that do registration based sampling, hesitant to poll there. That’s not a problem with most other states.”

SurveyUSA: Obama Maintains Steady Lead in New Mexico

A new SurveyUSA poll in New Mexico finds Sen. Barack Obama ahead of Sen. John McCain by seven points, 52% to 45%. 

These results are essentially unchanged from the two previous polls.

Interesting: “Absentee voting began in New Mexico six days ago. Among the 10% of New Mexico voters who say they have already voted, Obama leads by 23 points. Among likely voters, Obama leads by 6.”

The Last Presidential Debate

Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain will face off tonight at 9 pm ET in their last debate before the election. The debate will focus on domestic policy and be moderated by CBS News’ Bob Scheiffer.

Unlike the previous debates, the candidates will sit at a table facing one another.

Advice for McCain:

Chuck Todd: “He’s got to figure how to disqualify Barack Obama as a future president.”

George Stephanopoulos: “Can he pledge to serve only one term? Can he challenge Barack Obama to more debates? Can he announce a bipartisan cabinet? Those are all conceivable long balls. But there’s not a whole lot he can do, at this point, to change the dynamic in one debate.”

House Democrats Step Up Spending

According to the Swing State Project, the DCCC just made what appears to be its single biggest one-day expenditure of the election cycle, pouring $8.2 million into 45 different districts.

Of note: This is the first time that House Democrats have targeted IN-03, NE-02 and NY-29.

Datamar: Obama Leads By Five in Florida

Political Wire got an advance look at a new survey from Datamar in Florida that shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain, 47% to 42%.

The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.7%.

Key factor: 63% of those surveyed see the economy as the most important issue today. 

Bonus Quote of the Day

“The financial tsunami has produced one of the most difficult and volatile times to conduct polling in modern times. During these uniquely volatile last few weeks, I have seen as much day-to-day movement as I have witnessed in my 20 plus year career as a pollster.”

— McCain pollster Bill McInturff, quoted by Marc Ambinder, on new polls showing Obama increasing his national lead.

Two More Polls Show Obama Pulling Away

Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg: Obama 50%, McCain 41%

“Obama improved sharply over the last month among independent voters, a much-desired bloc. McCain carried them by a 15-point margin in September; in this poll, Obama led among that group by five points. Men, too, moved toward Obama, with the traditionally Republican-leaning group now in his camp. He also maintained his lead among female voters.”

New York Times/CBS News: Obama 53%, McCain 39%

“Six in 10 voters surveyed said that Mr. McCain had spent more time attacking Mr. Obama than explaining what he would do as president; by about the same number, voters said Mr. Obama was spending more of his time explaining than attacking.”

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Explore posts in the same categories: Candidates, National, Politics, Virginia

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