POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 10/27

Stevens Found Guilty

Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) “has been convicted of lying about free home renovations and other gifts he received from a wealthy oil contractor,” the AP reports. Stevens was found guilty on all seven counts brought against him.

“The verdict throws the upcoming election into disarray. Stevens is fighting off a challenge from Democrat Mark Begich and must now either drop out or continue campaigning as a convicted felon.”

Suffolk Poll: Obama Ahead in Florida

A new Suffolk University poll in Florida finds Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain, 49% to 44%.

Key finding: “The poll also asked about all of those who waited in hours-long lines to vote early, and among early voters, Obama crushes McCain, 60 to 40 percent.”

Obama Closes In On McCain in Arizona

According to two new polls, Sen. Barack Obama is actually closing the gap with Sen. John McCain in his home state of Arizona.

Zimmerman: McCain 44%, Obama 42%

Rasmussen: McCain 51%, Obama 46%

PPP Poll: Race Tightens in North Carolina

A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by just one point, 49% to 48%.

Analysis: “The deciding factor for President in North Carolina could be the weather on November 4th. Barack Obama is banking a huge lead among early voters, 63-36, who account for about a third of the likely electorate. But John McCain is up 53-42 with folks who plan to vote between now and election day. A rainy day could be to Obama’s considerable benefit.”

Palin Goes Off Script Again

As we noted over the weekend, Gov. Sarah Palin isn’t listening to her handlers. CNNsays her recent comments on her $150,000 clothing purchase were not in her prepared remarks.

In fact, McCain sources say Palin “has gone off-message several times, and they privately wonder whether the incidents were deliberate. They cited an instance in which she labeled robocalls — recorded messages often used to attack a candidate’s opponent — “irritating” even as the campaign defended their use. Also, they pointed to her telling reporters she disagreed with the campaign’s decision to pull out of Michigan.”
 
“A second McCain source says she appears to be looking out for herself more than the McCain campaign.”

SurveyUSA: Obama Stays Ahead in Virginia

A new SurveyUSA poll in Virginia shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain, 52% to 43%.

Key finding: “Those who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted disproportionately vote for Obama.”

 

Marist Poll: Obama Leads in Iowa, New Hampshire

There are two new Marist Polls out today from two battleground states:

Iowa: Obama 48%, McCain 40%

New Hampshire: Obama 50%, McCain 45%

Comebacks Are Rare, But Do Happen

Gallup: “There have been only 2 instances in the past 14 elections, from 1952 to 2004, when the presidential candidate ahead in Gallup polling a week or so before the election did not win the national popular vote: in 2000 (George W. Bush) and 1980 (Jimmy Carter). And in only one of these, in 1980, did the candidate who was behind (Ronald Reagan) pull ahead in both the popular vote and the Electoral College and thus win the election.”

If Obama Wins

In a must-read piece, John Heilemann looks at the big opportunities — and big risks — of a possible Obama administration.

“This precedent would be unnerving enough for Democrats by itself, but the truth is that the circumstances Obama will confront are infinitely more daunting than those that Clinton faced at the outset of his administration. The recession that facilitated 42’s rise was shallow, and by the time he took office, it was already in the rearview mirror. And although the mounting deficit compelled Clinton to abandon much of the new spending he’d envisioned, the fiscal situation he inherited was nothing like the house of horrors awaiting Obama. Add to that the collapsing real-estate market, the credit crunch, a weak dollar, and rising unemployment, and Obama will find himself staring down the barrel of a downturn so steep and ugly that it could easily consume his whole first term. Oh, and did I forget to mention that the country is at war — in not one but two countries?”

“All too aware that, should he win, these cascading crises will leave Obama with no time to gain his sea legs and terrifyingly little margin for error, he and his people, to a degree few realize, have been planning their transition from campaigning to governing for months with characteristic care and rigor. Like so much about Obama’s historic bid for the presidency, the first few days and weeks and months will be like nothing we have seen before — and all of it grounded in the insight that, mind-boggling as it might sound, winning was the easy part. These are Democrats they’ll be dealing with, after all.”

Bachmann Behind in MN-6

A new Minnesota Public Radio/Humphrey Institute poll shows Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) losing ground in her re-election bid and is now two points behind challenger Elwyn Tinklenberg (D), 43% to 45%.

Likely voters are widely aware of Bachmann’s controversial comments that Sen. Barack Obama “may have anti-American views,” strongly disagree with them, and are politically punishing her as a result.

Nothing Like Four Years Ago

The Votemaster compares time series charts of his electoral vote projections from 2004 and 2008. You’ll notice that they’re completely different. 

“Other than a two-day blip on June 24-25, 2004, when Kerry briefly touched 300 EVs, neither candidate ever was even close to 270 EVs in the solid states although Kerry was above 270 counting the ‘barely states’ until his Swift Boat was torpedoed.”

Quote of the Day

“So do we share a common philosophy of the Republican Party? Of course.”

— Sen. John McCain, on Meet the Press yesterday, comparing himself and President Bush. 

While McCain went on to try to distance himself from Bush and his party, the soundbite was picked up immediately by the Obama campaign.

Former GOP Senator Backs Obama

Former Sen. Larry Pressler (R-SD), “who was the first Vietnam veteran to serve in the United States Senate, is the latest Republican to back Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign,” according to Politico.

“I just got the feeling that Obama will be able to handle this financial crisis better, and I like his financial team of [former Treasury Secretary Robert] Rubin and [former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul] Volcker better,” he said. By contrast, John McCain’s “handling of the financial crisis made me feel nervous.”

SurveyUSA: Deadlocked in Missouri

A new SurveyUSA poll in Missouri shows Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama each getting 48% support.

Key findings: “A week ago, Obama led. No more. McCain made week-on-week inroads among men, among whites, and among voters younger than Barack Obama. Today, McCain leads by 18 among gun owners. Obama leads by 25 among those who do not own a gun. Nine research firms are polling in Missouri. Five show McCain ahead, though by 3 or fewer points. Two show Obama ahead, by 5 and 2 points. Two, including now SurveyUSA, show Missouri tied.”

WP Poll: Obama Widens Lead in Virginia

Sen. Barack Obama has opened up an eight-point lead over Sen. John McCain in Virginia, 52% to 44%, according to a new Washington Post poll.

“By wide margins, Virginia voters think that Obama is the candidate who would do more to bring needed change to Washington, who understands the economic challenges people are facing and who is the more honest and trustworthy of the two rivals. Still, there remains widespread apprehension over whether the Democratic nominee would make a good commander in chief.”

Final Week Fought in Red States

Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama “are heading into the final week of the presidential campaign planning to spend nearly all their time in states that President Bush won last time, testimony to the increasingly dire position of Mr. McCain and his party as Election Day approaches,” the New York Times reports.

“With optimism brimming in Democratic circles, Mr. Obama will present on Monday what aides described as a summing-up speech for his campaign in Canton, Ohio, reprising the themes he first presented in February 2007, when he began his campaign for the presidency,”

Reuters/Zogby: Obama Leads in Key Red States

A new Reuters/Zogby survey of eight battleground states shows Sen. Barack Obama ahead in the majority of them. President Bush won every one of these states four years ago.

Virginia: Obama 52%, McCain 45%

Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 45%

Nevada: Obama 48%, McCain 44%

Missouri: Obama 48%, McCain 46%

North Carolina: Obama 49%, McCain 46%

Florida: Obama 47%, McCain 47%

Indiana: McCain 50%, Obama 44%

West Virginia: McCain 50%, Obama 40%

Said pollster John Zogby: “McCain might be able to survive the loss of Nevada, but probably not any of the others.” 

St. Cloud State: Obama Leads in Minnesota

St. Cloud State University poll in Minnesota shows Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. John McCain, 42% to 37%. 

Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate race “continues to display the volatility seen in polls throughout the season” with Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) retaking the lead over challenger Al Franken (D), 36% to 27%, with Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley getting 16%.

Mason-Dixon: McCain Ahead in Georgia

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Georgia finds Sen. John McCain leading Sen. Barack Obama by six points, 49% to 43%.

Research 2000: Obama Grabs Lead in Missouri

A new Research 2000 poll in Missouri shows Sen. Barack Obama edging Sen. John McCain, 48% to 47%.

“Obama’s lead is his first in Missouri against McCain in any Research 2000 polls this year. The previous poll, in late September, showed McCain with a one-point edge.”

Update: A new Mason-Dixon poll in Missouri has McCain beating out Obama by one point, 46% to 45%.

Jackson Eyes Obama’s Senate Seat

Illinois political insiders say Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-IL), “who defended Barack Obama after his father famously threatened to castrate him, is the favorite to replace the Democratic nominee in the Senate,” according to The Hill.

Said Jackson: “If Sen. Obama wins — and I’m optimistic that he will, I indeed would be honored and humbled to succeed him in the U.S. Senate. But, in the end, the decision rests with Gov. Blagojevich and I’m confident that he’ll make an appointment in the best interest of the state as well as the nation.”

Buckeye Poll: Obama Takes Lead in Ohio

A new Akron Buckeye Poll in Ohio shows Sen. Barack Obama has moved slightly ahead of Sen. John McCain, 45% to 41%. The same poll shows the race was tied in July. 

Key findings: “Obama and McCain made gains in unifying their fellow  partisans in Ohio. In October, Obama was supported by 83.6 percent of Democratic voters and McCain received the backing of 92.5 percent of Republican voters. These figures were higher than in July.”

Quote of the Day

“Those polls have consistently shown me much further behind than we actually are. It all depends on the voter turnout… we’re doing fine.”

— Sen. John McCain, quoted by CNN.

Globe Poll: Obama Crushing McCain in New Hampshire

Sen. Barack Obama has jumped to a 15-point lead over Sen. John McCain in New Hampshire, according to a new Boston Globe poll, “a significant gap in a state that McCain considers his second political home and has long been a swing state in the race for the White House.”

Key finding: “Financial distress has clearly driven voters from McCain to Obama, who was trailing his Republican rival by 2 percentage points in Septembe – a 17-point swing in just one month. Nearly half of those surveyed cited the economy and jobs as their top concerns, and they overwhelmingly saw Obama as the candidate best equipped to address them.”

McCain’s Last Stand

Sen. Barack Obama and Gov. Sarah Palin will “flood” Pennsylvania with appearances next week, reports Marc Ambinder.

“The scheduling reflects McCain’s tough electoral math. With some — though by no means all — advisers all but conceding Colorado, McCain would be forced to win a blue state in order to recoup the electoral votes. New Hampshire wouldn’t give him enough, and Pennsylvania, the McCain campaign believes, is the most brittle of the remaining states. Public and private polls give Obama a double digit lead in the state, but McCain advisers believe that Obama is underperforming in the suburbs and exurban counties around Pittsburgh. Tensions between the two campaigns in the state is acute.”

The Economist: “If Mr McCain can capture Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes, he can offset Barack Obama’s gains in Republican strongholds in the Mountain West; if he loses Pennsylvania, his goose is probably cooked.”

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Explore posts in the same categories: Candidates, National, Politics, Virginia

One Comment on “POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 10/27”

  1. Alec Says:

    The polls are just like the mainstream media- in the tank for Obama.
    They are trying to paint a bleak picture so that Repulicans, Independents AND even Democrats – that would ordinarily vote for Obama will lose heart- and not go to the polls.

    The Silent Majority is going to be out in force for this election.
    America will not stand for a Socialist to elected to the Presidency.
    Especially with all the baggage he brings.

    McCain-Palin 2008


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