POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 10/31

A Graphical Look at Past Elections

Google layered county voting results from the last seven presidential elections is on Google Maps and Google Earth. It’s an incredibly quick way to look at past election results.

Historical Voting Results
 
Gadgets powered by Google

Research 2000: Arizona is Very Tight

A new Research 2000 poll in Arizona shows Sen. John McCain beating out Sen. Barack Obama by just one point in his home state, 48% to 47%.

Among the 17% of the sample that actually voted early, Obama leads McCain, 54% to 42%.

SurveyUSA: Obama Blow Out in New Hampshire

Though New Hampshire was expected to be a 2008 battleground, a new SurveyUSA poll shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 11 points, 53% to 42%.

If that result holds on Election Day, it would be a larger share of the presidential vote than the Granite State has given any Democrat since Lyndon Johnson’s landslide in 1964.

Obama Dominates on Radio

First Read: “One of the under-written process stories of the cycle is Obama’s dominance on the radio airwaves. You looking for a good explanation for why Obama is doing well in states with heavy driving populations (like Florida and Montana, for instance?), go to the radio dial, where he’s outspending McCain by huge margins.”

Obama Expands Ad Buy to New States

Two interesting items from a conference call with Obama campaign manager David Plouffe:

1. The Obama campaign will add Georgia, North Dakota and Arizona to its final ad buy of the election, suggesting those traditionally Republican states are now competitive.

2. The races in Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, and New Mexico are already nearly half over since so many people have voted early.

Quote of the Day

“Like any politician at this level, I’ve got a healthy ego.”

— Sen. Barack Obama, in an interview with USA Today.

McCain Will Campaign in Arizona

The Daily Courier reports Sen. John McCain will be campaigning in his home state of Arizona on Monday, the day before Election Day.

Recent polls have shown McCain’s lead dwindling to single digits in Arizona.

Of course, Sen. Barack Obama will be in his home state tonight.

Loyola Poll: McCain Barely Leads in Lousiana

A new WWL-TV poll in Lousiana shows Sen. John McCain just edging Sen. Barack Obama, 43% to 40%. 

The survey, conducted by Loyola University, has a margin of error of 4.5 points.

Said pollster Ed Renwick: “It’s closer than I thought it would be. That’s because they’ll probably be people who don’t usually vote, who don’t vote often, or weren’t registered to vote until recently. Those people would not be heavy McCain voters. They would be Obama voters.”

Daschle Still Favorite for Obama Chief of Staff

Mike Allen:  “If Obama selected Emanuel, it would show he doesn’t want a yes-man. The favorite remains former Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.), with the dark horse candidate of Bill Daley, Commerce Secretary under President Bill Clinton and campaign manager for Vice President Al Gore.”

Obama Burying McCain on Television Ads

New analysis from the Wisconsin Advertising Project finds Sen. Barack Obama is outspending Sen. John McCain 3-to-1 on television advertising. 

From October 21st to October 28th, the Obama campaign spent nearly $21.5 million while the McCain campaign spent nearly $7.5 million.  Another $6.7 million was spent by the Republican Party and $2.2 million was spent by interest groups. 
 
“Because these numbers are for the most recent period for which data are available, they do not include the millions Obama spent Wednesday night on a 30-minute infomercial that aired on seven networks. They combine to put the Obama campaign on track to spend more money in October on broadcast TV – over $100 million dollars – than any campaign has ever spent in history.”

InsiderAdvantage: Close Races in North Carolina, Missouri

New InsiderAdvantage polls show Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain “are evenly matched in the swing states of North Carolina and Missouri, though Obama is strongly outpacing McCain in two of those states’ crucial battleground counties.”

North Carolina: Obama 48%, McCain 48%

Missouri: McCain 50%, Obama 47%

“McCain’s ability to break even against Obama in these two states, despite the Democrat’s strong performance in suburban and urban areas suggests that the Arizona senator is drawing strong support from the less densely populated areas in these states.”

PPP Poll: Obama Way Ahead in Colorado

Public Policy Polling released a new wave of polls late last night. 

Highlights: Sen. Barack Obama holds a double-digit lead in Colorado, but Sen. John McCain looks likely to win handily in West Virginia despite indications the race was more competitive there.

Colorado: Obama 54%, McCain 44%

Michigan: Obama 55%, McCain 42%

Minnesota: Obama 57%, McCain 41%

New Mexico: Obama 58%, McCain 41%

Oregon: Obama 57%, McCain 42%

West Virginia: McCain 55%, Obama 42%

Palin Drags Down McCain

The New York Times/CBS News poll released last night shows “a growing number of voters” have concluded that Gov. Sarah Palin “is not qualified to be vice president, weighing down the Republican ticket in the last days of the campaign.”

“All told, 59% of voters surveyed said Ms. Palin was not prepared for the job, up nine percentage points since the beginning of the month.”

Meanwhile, the Huffington Post has audio of former Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger — a strong McCain backer — saying “of course” she’s not ready to be president if needed.

Strategic Vision: Obama Leads in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania

Strategic Vision released new polls in three states last night, all showing Sen. Barack Obama with solid leads.

New Hampshire: Obama 50%, Mccain 41%

Pennsylvania: Obama 49%, McCain 44%

Michigan: Obama 54%, McCain 41%

Emanuel Considered for Obama’s Chief of Staff

Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign has approached Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) “about possibly serving as White House chief of staff,” the AP reports.

“The Democrats who described the Obama campaign’s approach to Emanuel spoke on condition of anonymity, saying they were not authorized to be quoted by name. An aide to the congressman, Sarah Feinberg, said in an e-mail that he ‘has not been contacted to take a job in an administration that does not yet exist. Everyone is focused on Election Day, as they should be.'”

Marc Ambinder: “Emanuel has been a regular behind-the-scenes adviser to Obama, knows everyone in Washington, is one of the better communicators in the party, and certainly is qualified for the post.  But he’s … got a very strong personality that doesn’t exactly jibe with the tone Obama likes to set for his endeavors… He also has a young family, and he has not moved them to Washington, and his hours as chief of staff would be hellish.”

Obama Transition Seeks to Avoid Clinton Mistakes

“The best-kept secret in Washington is that Barack Obama has the largest and most disciplined presidential transition team anyone can recall,” the Financial Times reports. 

“Transition insiders, who are under strict orders from the Obama campaign not to talk to the media to avoid giving the impression Mr Obama thinks he has won already, contrast it particularly with Mr Clinton’s transition in 1992, which was based in Little Rock, Arkansas, and turned into an extended symposium on every subject under the sun.”

“One of Mr Obama’s main motivations is to avoid the mistakes attributed to Mr Clinton, whose first 100 days in office turned into a nightmare from which it took years to recover and which helped bring about the Republican landslide in the 1994 mid-term elections.”

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Explore posts in the same categories: Candidates, National, Politics, Virginia

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