POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 11/02

Pew Research: Obama Leads Nationally By Six Points

The final Pew Research poll shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain, 52% to 46%, among likely voters.

“Obama holds a wide lead over John McCain among those who say they have already voted (32% of all likely voters) or say they plan to vote before Election Day (7%). However, it is not quite as large as it was a week ago. More significant, the race is about even among voters who plan to vote on Election Day: 46% support McCain while 45% favor Obama.”

Dueling Tracking Polls Now Agree

The two Gallup tracking poll likely voter models — with one that has consistently shown a close race and the other showing a likely Democratic blowout — have converged, with both models now showing Sen. Barack Obama way ahead of Sen. John McCain, 52% to 43%, and 52% to 41%, respectively.

SurveyUSA: McCain Closing On Obama in Pennsylvania

A new SurveyUSA poll in Pennsylvania shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain, 51% to 44%.

Key findings: “The candidates are tied among white voters, tied among those without a college degree. The situation is volatile.”

UpdatePolitical Wire has learned that Sen. Joe Biden is heading to Pennsylvania on Monday for a campaign stop. 

SurveyUSA: Obama Keeps Lead in Virginia

A new SurveyUSA poll in Virginia shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain, 50% to 46%.

Compared to an identical survey one week ago, McCain is up 3, Obama is down 2.

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

“I cannot foresee a scenario that John McCain is elected president of the United States.”

— Republican strategist Frank Luntz, interviewed on the BBC.

 

CNN Poll: Obama Keeps National Lead

A new CNN/Opinion Research poll shows Sen. Barack Obama maintains a seven point national lead over Sen. John McCain, 53% to 46%.

Said pollster Keating Holland: “Keep in mind that this is not a prediction of the final outcome. That’s not an easy task with two full days of campaigning to go in a country in which roughly one in ten voters tend to make up their minds in the last few days.”

State of the Race

With just two days left, there are two key themes are coming out of the presidential campaigns this morning:

Republicans insist that large numbers of undecided white voters will break towards McCain and push key “red states” back into the McCain column. These states are Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida. In addition, McCain aides believe they still have a shot in Pennsylvania if the same effect occurs in the western and rural areas of the state.

Democrats think their edge is in early voting and that current polling actually understates Obama’s true lead. They also feel very confident about Pennsylvania which is why neither Obama or Biden will be campaigning in the state again before the election.

Mason-Dixon: McCain Holding Three Key States

The last round of Mason-Dixon polling in key battleground states found Sen. John McCain holding several battleground states.

North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 46%

Missouri: McCain 47%, Obama 46%

Ohio: McCain 47%, Obama 45%

However, as we’ve noted earlier, the same polling round shows Obama leading in four other important states that went Republican four years ago: ColoradoFlorida,Nevada and Virginia.

Mason-Dixon: Obama Ahead in Colorado

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Colorado shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain, 49% to 44%.

The pollster notes “the number of undecideds in Colorado is smaller than in other battleground states. While those voters could have an impact, especially if they all throw their weight behind McCain, Obama has momentum.”

Imperfect Presidents

Tales of Misadventure and TriumphIn the mail: Imperfect Presidents by Jim Cullen.

The author “takes ten presidents down from their pedestals by examining key missteps in their careers — and how they transcended them. Examples include Abraham Lincoln smearing a preacher and rediscovering his religious vision in emancipating slaves; Lyndon Johnson’s electoral fraud in his 1948 Senate race and his role in the signing of the Voting Rights Act; and Ronald Reagan’s subversion of the Constitution in the Iran-Contra affair and affirmation of world peace in helping bring about the end of the Cold War.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

“I will! On Wednesday!”

— Sen. Barack Obama, quoted by ABC News, when asked if he’ll hold a press conference.

Iowa Poll: Obama Headed to Landslide

Sen. Barack Obama is beating Sen. John McCain in Iowa by a huge 17 point margin, 54% to 37%, according to a new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll.

“If that kind of margin is reflected in what happens on Election Day, it would be the largest presidential margin in Iowa since Richard Nixon beat George McGovern by 17.1 percentage points in the state in 1972.”

Mason-Dixon: Obama Leads in Nevada

A final Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain, 47% to 44%.

“A surprisingly large proportion of the state’s voters remained undecided as an especially intense race comes down to the wire.”

Mason-Dixon: Obama Just Ahead in Virginia

The final Mason-Dixon poll in Virginia shows Sen. Barack Obama just ahead of Sen. John McCain, 47% to 44%. 

The poll “shows that 11 percent of whites are undecided — far more than usual in the closing week of a statewide election… The last time the figure was nearly as high was 1989 in Virginia, when Democrat Doug Wilder was elected the nation’s first black governor.”

In that election, Wilder held a narrow lead going into Election Day but nearly all the undecided white voters chose his opponent. Wilder ultimately won by just four-tenths of a percentage point.

Mason-Dixon: Obama Holds Small Lead in Florida

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Florida shows Sen. Barack Obama edging Sen. John McCain in the critical battleground state, 47% to 45%.

“If Obama wins here, he is virtually assured the presidency. If McCain loses, his candidacy is all but dead.”

Columbus Dispatch Poll: Obama Keeps Lead in Ohio

A new Columbus Dispatch poll in Ohio shows Sen. Barack Obama with a six point lead over Sen. John McCain, 52% to 46%. A month ago Obama held a seven point lead.

“The winner of the last Dispatch Poll before a presidential election has carried the state every time in modern Ohio history, although the final survey was a dead heat four years ago.”

Political Half Time Show

Chris Berman will do one-on-one interviews with Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain to air at halftime of the Redskins-Pittsburgh Steelers Monday Night Footballbroadcast, ESPN announced.

The interviews will give both Obama and McCain “a last major chance to appeal to Americans during a coveted spot on prime-time television. Monday Night Footballhas averaged 12.2 million viewers this season.”

Quote of the Day

“You do not have to read poll numbers — just look at their travel schedule.”

— Pollster Peter Hart, quoted by First Read, noting the Obama-Biden team is “campaigning in Nevada, Colorado, Indiana, as well as the perennials of Ohio and Florida.”

McCain Stars on SNL

Sen. John McCain appeared on Saturday Night Live last night in a skit where he “bought” time on QVC since he couldn’t afford the 30 minute infomercial Sen. Barack Obama ran last week. 

Said McCain: “Look, would I rather be on three major networks? Of course. But I’m a true maverick — a Republican without money.”

 

The New York Times notes, “Doing the show kept Mr. McCain overnight in New York, away from the swing states or a Republican ones that he hopes to lock down, but beamed him into living rooms of potential voters across the country.”

Obama Ad Features Cheney

Less than 24 hours later, Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign rolls out a campaign adstarring Vice President Dick Cheney’s endorsement of Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin.

Palin Fooled By Prank Phone Call

“A Quebec comedy duo notorious for prank calls to celebrities and heads of state has reached Sarah Palin, convincing the Republican vice-presidential nominee she was speaking with French President Nicolas Sarkozy,” according to the Canadian Press.

“In the roughly six-minute telephone interview released Saturday, Palin and the pranksters known as the Masked Avengers discuss politics, pundits, and the perils of hunting with Vice-President Dick Cheney.”

Update: A Palin spokeswoman released this statement: “Gov. Palin received a phone call on Saturday from a French Canadian talk show host claiming to be French President Nicholas Sarkozy. Gov. Palin was mildly amused to learn that she had joined the ranks of heads of state, including President Sarkozy, and other celebrities in being targeted by these pranksters. C’est la vie.”

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Explore posts in the same categories: Candidates, National, Politics, Virginia

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