POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 11/2

Headline of the Year

“House Forecast: G.O.P. Plus 54-55 Seats; Significantly Larger or Smaller Gains Possible”

— Nate Silver, noting the uncertainty in his final House forecast.

Bonus Quote of the Day

“I think actually a third-party candidate could run the government easier than a partisan political president because the partisan political president — yeah he’s got half the votes, but he can’t get the others — whereas the guy in the middle may very well be able to get enough across the aisle.”

— New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, quoted by the Associated Press.

Perry Book Leaked Online

The Fort Worth Star Telegram notes that excerpts of Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s (R) forthcoming book, Fed Up!: Our Fight to Save America from Washington, were posted briefly online before being taken down hours later.

In the book, Perry “covers a wide range of federal issues far beyond those he’s touched on repeatedly on the campaign trail this year” and “points to multiple areas where he finds the federal government is unreasonably intruding in people’s lives.”

Austin American Statesman
: “The book will be available for purchase for the first time at what is expected to be Perry’s victory party Tuesday night after polls close… Perry is planning to set out on a national book tour this month to promote the book. The project has fueled speculation that he will try to run for president, but Perry says he’s not running.”

Palin Robocalls for Tancredo

Sarah Palin recorded a robocall for Colorado’s third party candidate for governor, Tom Tancredo.

Ben Smith: “In case her stance weren’t clear, this aligns her with the party’s hardest line on immigration, a signal to the 2012 field.”

See more…

 

Alaska Remains a Toss Up

A final Hays Research poll in Alaska, conducted for the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee, shows Joe Miller (R) leading the U.S. Senate race with 27%, followed by Scott McAdams (D) at 26% and “another candidate you have to write in” at 25%.

There are still 22% undecided.

An earlier poll showed Miller leading though most consider it difficult to poll a three-way race with a write-in candidate.

Record Election Turnout Expected

Election turnout expert Michael McDonald projects that a record-breaking 90 million people will cast ballots in the 2010 midterm elections.

First Read: “McDonald, who bases his projections on early voting data as well as trends in individual states, calculates that turnout will be about 41.3 percent of the eligible voting population. That’s comparable to the population that turned out in 1994 (41.1 percent of the eligible population) and the highest share since at least 1982.”

When Forecasts Go Bad

Benjy Sarlin looks back to the 1994 midterm elections and finds nearly every forecaster predicted a Republican gain of 20-25 seats in the House of Representatives.

“Of course that’s not what happened — instead Republicans ended up shocking the world with a 54-seat gain and their first House majority in 40 years. The reason I bring this up is that the current pundit predictions, although a rough estimate, are almost as uniform as they were then in predicting GOP gains of 50-60 seats.”

Bennet Calls Wrong Radio Station

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) did a series of radio interviews today urging people to vote but his list inadvertently included a call to conservative radio host Peter Boyles,Michelle Malkin notes. As the audio shows, the call didn’t go too well.

Said Boyles after the interview: “I wonder who lost their gig over that one?”

Democrats on Track to Win in California

A final SurveyUSA poll in California finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leading challenger Carly Fiorina (R) by eight points, 46% to 38%.

In the race for governor, Jerry Brown (D) leads Meg Whitman by 11 points, 48% to 37%.

Both Fiorina and Whitman finish with their lowest poll numbers of the campaign.

Poll Closing Times

For your reference, here’s a handy clip-and-save list of the poll closing times around the country for tomorrow’s midterm elections.

See more…

Where the Deficit Came From

Justin Fox runs the numbers on the federal deficit if there had not been a financial crisis, and thus no TARP, recession or stimulus package. He finds a result often overlooked: “the giant deficit is mainly the result of the collapse in tax receipts brought on by the recession, not the increase in spending.”

According to his model, the “no crisis” scenario for 2010 was “$2.843 trillion in federal revenue and $3.270 trillion in spending, leaving a deficit of $427 billion. The actual revenue and spending totals for 2010 were $2.162 trillion and $3.456 trillion. So spending was $186 billion higher than if we’d stuck to the trend, and revenue was $681 billion lower.”

Palin Blasts Media Again

Sarah Palin “continued her frenzied blitz on the media Sunday, responding to a recent story in Politico which argues — through numerous unnamed sources — that the GOP establishment and other Republican presidential hopefuls will soon embark on a mission to dismantle the former Alaska Governor’s credibility in the lead up to 2012, the Huffington Post reports.

Said Palin: “Politico, Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei, they’re jokes. This is a joke to have unnamed sources tearing somebody apart limb by limb. If they would man up and if they would, you know, make these claims against me then I can debate them, I can talk about it, but to me they’re making stuff up again.”

Don’t worry guys, she called me an “idiot” and “way whacked.”

Long Election Night Ahead

Cook Political Report: “By sunrise Wednesday morning, we still may not have a clear idea of just how many seats Republicans have won in the House. As one smart Democratic operative points out, between 10 and 20 percent of all competitive races could not be called on Election Night in both 2006 and 2008, and there were only about 60 competitive races in each of those elections. This year, with 100 races listed as competitive on our chart, the number of races left without checkmarks until later dates could easily run in the double digits.”

A GOP Star is Born

The St. Petersburg Times reports that perhaps “the most sought-after press credential in the country” on Election Night is for Marco Rubio’s (R) U.S. Senate campaign party in Florida.

“As of yesterday, the campaign had received requests from 232 media outlets. That includes 35 television cameras (of which 17 are from Florida), network crews from NBC, ABC, FOX, CNN, the BBC, NPR, Univision and Al Arabiya, and 75 members of the foreign press — radio reporters from the Czech Republic, West Africa, China; TV crews from the Congo, Colombia, Japan, France, Spain; and print reporters from Germany, New Zealand, Argentina and the UK.”

The latest Public Policy Polling survey shows Rubio headed for an easy victory as he leads Gov. Charlie Crist (I), 47% to 30%, with Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) at 21%.

 

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