POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 2/11
Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ), “who survived an assassination attempt last month, had given indications to her closest circle of political advisers prior to the shooting that if Sen. Jon Kyl (R) retired that she would make the race,” The Fix reports.
“It’s not clear whether Giffords remains interested in running or if she could, physically, meet the demands of a statewide campaign… What remains to be seen is whether the idea of a Giffords’ candidacy effectively freezes the Democratic field as people wait to see what she might do — allowing her time to recover and fully consider the possibility of a bid.”
Said Kyl: “I wouldn’t close my mind to being a vice presidential candidate. However, having said that, I expect the chances of that are zero.”
White House deputy press secretary Bill Burton “has been approached by some party insiders about the possibility of running in the likely special election to replace former Rep. Chris Lee (R-NY) and is weighing the possibility of a bid,” according toThe Fix.
Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) refused to answer the Indianapolis Star when asked if he will stay as governor if he runs for president.
Karl Rove explains how if Republicans retake the Senate in 2012, they will need only 51 votes — not a filibuster-breaking 60 — in order to effectively repeal health care reform.
“Under reconciliation the Senate Budget Committee could instruct the Senate Finance Committee to reduce mandatory spending on insurance subsidies and Medicaid expansion. These two items make up more than 90% of spending in ObamaCare. All the changes from all the committees are then bundled into one measure and voted upon. Because reconciliation is protected by the rules of the budget process, it doesn’t take 60 votes to bring it up and it requires only a simple majority to pass.”
Of course, Jonathan Chait reminds us that Rove was firmly against reconciliation when Democrats wanted to use it to pass the health care reform bill.
A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by four points, 45% to 41%, an 11 point swing since the November elections. Democrats also hold a seven point lead, 38% to 31%, among independent voters.
A Yale student group seeking to draft Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels has recruited Jimmy “The Rent Is Too Damn High” McMillan to pitch their candidate in an amusing new web ad.
In what is sure to be a disappointment to political watchers around the country, unsuccessful New York gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino (R) has told The Hotline that he will not run for the congressional seat left vacant by former Rep. Chris Lee (R).
Paladino will back state Assemblywoman Jane Corwin (R), who “has emerged as one of the early favorites to succeed Lee, according to several GOP sources… she’s favored by Erie County Republicans, and that friends say she’s ‘miserable’ in the GOP minority in the assembly and is ‘looking for a new opportunity.'”
Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) will announce his retirement today, according to multiple sources.
Arizona Republic: “Word of an open Senate seat in Arizona, which has not seen a Senate vacancy since Sen. Dennis DeConcini declined to seek re-election in 1994, will stir a frenzy of interest from potential candidates in both parties. Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) last week told The Republic that he is interesting in running if Kyl does not. Former Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ) also has said that he might consider a Senate run.”
Alan Abramowitz: “In the past hundred years, there have been ten presidential elections in which an incumbent president was seeking a second term in the White House for his party with the most recent being 2004. The key distinction here is the number of terms the incumbent’s party has been in office, not the number of terms the individual incumbent has been in office. Incumbent party candidates have won nine of those ten first term elections. Jimmy Carter in 1980 was the only first term incumbent party candidate in the past century to lose and it took a devastating combination of recession, inflation, and public frustration over the seemingly endless Iran hostage crisis to bring him down.”
“My goal is to strengthen the president.”
— Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA), in an interview on CNBC, noting he “wouldn’t feel bad” if President Obama was re-elected because the economy was stronger. However, he added, “I probably still won’t vote for him.”
Said Santorum: “This is a news story. Could they have said ‘is that what you meant?’ And I would have said ‘No’ — that we know that I know, because, because she does — we’ve watched, I think, we’ve watched every episode of Sarah Palin’s Alaska. We enjoy it. We like to watch with the family. I know she has obligations to do other things… I just assumed she was busy, that’s all.”
It’s hard to believe that it was just four years ago today that then-Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) announced his candidacy for president in front of the State House in Springfield, Illinois.
First Read: “And it’s equally striking when you consider — as some potential GOP White House aspirants begin speaking today at the Conservative Political Action Conference — that only one Republican so far has even formed an exploratory committee: Herman Cain. Indeed, at this same point in the ’08 cycle, 17 candidates had either already declared their candidacy or formed an official committee to legally begin raising money.”
A Smart Politics analysis of more than 500 PolitiFact stories over the last year finds that statements made by Republican politicians have been rated as false at more than three times the rate of those made by their Democratic counterparts.
Leading the way for the GOP with the largest number of false statements: Sarah Palin with eight, Michele Bachmann with seven, and John Boehner, Mike Pence, and the National Republican Congressional Committee with four each.
Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels boasted to Politico that he could raise a lot of money for a presidential run and have a lot of big name endorsements.
Said Daniels: “If I were to decide to do this, we would have an unbelievable letterhead.”
However, he also “suggested three things could keep him from plunging in: his wife’s concerns, the calculation that his party or the country aren’t ready for his tough-love message or the emergence of another capable candidate.”