Is the Stock Market Predicting an Obama Win?

Businessweek finds that the odds that President Obama will be re-elected on the Intrade political futures market track very closely to the performance of the S&P 500 stocks index.


Obama Surges in Three Key Swing States

New Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist polls show President Obama building leads over Mitt Romney in Ohio, Florida and Virginia among likely voters.

Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 44%

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 43%

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 44%

“These states – all of which Obama carried in 2008 but which George W. Bush won in 2004 – represent three of the most crucial battlegrounds in the 2012 presidential election. And according to NBC’s electoral map, Romney likely needs to capture at least two of these states, if not all three, to secure the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the presidency.”

Politico reports the numbers in Ohio “roughly match up with internal surveys conducted by both Democrats and Republicans recently.”


Obama Leads in New Hampshire

A new WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll finds President Obama leading Mitt Romney among Granite State likely voters, 45% to 40%.

Said pollster Andy Smith: “One of the other things that makes me think this race is closer than the 5 percentage points that we’re showing in this poll is if you ask who’s most extremely interested in the race, 48% say they’ll vote for Romney. Only 44% for President Obama.”


Documents Provide Insight Into Obama Bundlers

Internal campaign documents obtained by the New York Times show President Obama’s top “bundlers” raised or gave at least $200 million for the president’s re-election bid through May, approximately half the total.

“The documents provide a detailed look into the intricate world of presidential fund-raising, which Mr. Obama and his team have mastered, and donor-stroking, which some supporters complain they have not. The campaign closely monitors its top bundlers, rating them by how much each individual or couple has raised and donated each year going back to 2007. Officials used that amount, in turn, to offer donor packages of access and entertainment for the convention last week.”


The Problem with Romney

Joe Scarborough: “And the lesson is clear: If we want to win the battle of ideas in the long term, we should be willing to face the fact that Mitt Romney is likely to lose — and should, given that he’s neither a true conservative nor a courageous moderate. He’s just an ambitious man. Nothing wrong with that, except when you want to be president. Great leaders combine ambition and ideas and conviction.”


Could Michele Bachmann Lose Her House Race?

The Week reports a new poll from challenger Jim Graves (D) shows him statistically tied with Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), with the incumbent barely ahead, 48% to 46%.


Has Mitt Romney Turned Into John Kerry?

The Week: “Both men are multimillionaires who call Massachusetts home, have reputations as flip-floppers, vacation at inopportune times, and are widely perceived as stiff, not terribly personable, and a little out of touch. Here’s another similarity: Both men faced incumbents with strong poll numbers on national security, an advantage that both George W. Bush and President Obama have pressed.”


Obama Solidly Ahead in Minnesota

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Minnesota finds President Obama leading Mitt Romney by seven points among likely voters, 51% to 44%.

In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) leads challenger Kurt Bills (R) by 19 points, 55% to 36%.


Obama Ahead in Colorado

A new OnSight Public Affairs/Project New America survey in Colorado shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney by five points, 49% to 44%.

Said pollster Mike Melanson: “Colorado appears to be Obama’s to lose at this point. He’s consolidating his advantage with women voters and, more importantly, with unaffiliated voters.”

A new American Research Group poll finds Obama leading by two points, 49% to 47%.


Three GOP Electors Say They Won’t Vote for Romney

“At least three Republican electors say they may not support their party’s presidential ticket when the Electoral College meets in December to formally elect the new president, escalating tensions within the GOP and adding a fresh layer of intrigue to the final weeks of the White House race,” the AP reports.

The electors — all are supporters of Ron Paul — said they “are exploring options should Mitt Romney win their states. They expressed frustration at how Republican leaders have worked to suppress Paul’s conservative movement and his legion of loyal supporters.”


Durbin Eyes Cabinet Post

A Democratic source tells Michael Sneed that Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), who has held his seat since 1997, may be eying a Cabinet post as U.S. transportation or labor secretary if President Obama is re-elected.


Another Poll Gives Obama the Lead Nationally

A new Esquire/Yahoo News poll confirms what most other national polls are showing this week: President Obama leads Mitt Romney among likely voters nationwide, 50% to 46%.

Also interesting: Americans believe Obama would win in a fistfight with Romney, 58% to 22%.


Romney Loses His Advantage on the Economy

Greg Sargent points to four national polls that show a major shift towards President Obama in recent weeks on economic issues:

Fox News poll shows Obama and Romney exactly tied at 46% on who would better improve the economy and create jobs.

CNN poll finds the two candidates nearly even, 50% to 49%, on who would better handle the economy.

Washington Post-ABC News poll also finds Obama and Romney in a statistical tie, 47% to 45%, on the same question.

Rasmussen poll shows Obama leading by 47% to 45% on who is more trusted on job creation.

Explore posts in the same categories: Candidates, National, Politics

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