Latest Swing State Polls

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states, updated as needed through the day:

Colorado: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (We Ask America)

Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (Gravis Marketing)

Iowa: Obama 48%, Romney 44% (We Ask America)

Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 40% (We Ask America)

New Hampshire: Obama 54%, Romney 39% (WBUR)

North Carolina: Romney 50%, Obama 46% (American Research Group)


Cicilline Bounces Back in Rhode Island

A new WPRI 12 poll finds Rep. David Cicilline (D-RI) “has engineered a remarkable eight-month turnaround in his re-election race against Brendan Doherty (R), rebounding from a 15-point deficit to take a six-point lead, 44% to 38%.


National Polls Remain Close

A new CNN/ORC poll shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney nationally among likely voters by just three points, 50% to 47%.

Said pollster Keating Holland: “That’s a strong suggestion that whatever bounce President Obama received from his convention has, as expected, faded away. That’s why they call them ‘bounces’.”

These results closely mirror other national polls released earlier today.


Most Reacted Negative to Romney’s 47% Comment

A new Pew Research survey finds Mitt Romney’s statement that 47% of the public is dependent on government has registered strongly with 55% of voters generating a negative reaction and just 23% reacting positively.


Hirono Holds Big Lead in Hawaii

A new Civil Beat poll in Hawaii finds Mazie Hirono (D) way ahead of Linda Lingle (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 55% to 39%.


The Legend of Paul Ryan Fades

Jonathan Chait: “Ryan is still an extremely skilled bullshitter — vastly better at it than Romney. But he’s actually seeing, for the first time, questions that attempt to pry information out of him, rather than the batting practice lobs to which he’s accustomed. He’s going to emerge from the race with his legend punctured.”


Why Obama Isn’t Going Bold

Ezra Klein: “There’s a reason they’re playing down the audacity of their first term and deemphasizing the policies that they think would do the most to help in a second. The American people, their research shows, are tired of audacity and skeptical of big ideas. They’re willing to believe Obama has done about the best job he could have been expected to do given the collapse of the global economy and the intransigence of the Republicans. But if they’re going to believe that, they’re also not willing to believe that he’s got all the answers now, or that his next big idea is the one that will really turn all this around. If they’re going to lower their expectations, he needs to be more realistic in his promises.”

“And so the Obama campaign is downsizing its ideas, at least for the remainder of the campaign.”


Another Poll Shows Warren Ahead in Massachusetts

The latest WBUR poll finds a still-tight race between Sen. Scott Brown (R) and challenger Elizabeth Warren (D), with Warren leading Brown by two points, 46% to 44%.

Key finding: “One of the key factors playing in Warren’s favor is voters’ discomfort with the idea of Republicans taking control of the Senate. Only 29 percent of likely voters in our poll say they would prefer to see Republicans in control; 58 percent say they would prefer to see Democrats continue to run the Senate.”


Why Obama is Leading in the Polls

Ron Brownstein: “Across most of the presidential battleground states, particularly in the Midwest, President Obama’s lead rests on a surprisingly strong performance among blue-collar white women who usually tilt toward the GOP.”

“Obama is running considerably better than he is nationally among white women without a college education. Obama’s gains with these so-called ‘waitress moms’ are especially pronounced in Heartland battlegrounds like Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa…”

“Democrats say blue-collar women have been the principal, and most receptive, target for their extended ad barrage portraying Romney as a plutocrat who is blind, if not indifferent, to the struggles of average families.”


Romney’s New Sales Pitch

“Republicans in Washington have fretted that the absence of a punchy, consistent theme in Romney’s day-to-day message leaves him hobbled as he works to gain back lost ground against the president,” Politico reports.

Today the campaign declared a new sales pitch: “We can’t afford another four years like the last four years.”


Bonus Quote of the Day

“There can be an inflated sense of confidence that has an impact on turnout. People think the election’s done. Well, it’s not. It’s going to be a close election. You don’t want people to be irrationally exuberant.”

— David Axelrod, in an interview with Howard Kurtz.


Night of the Living Pelosi

John Dennis (R) escalates his battle against Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) — and zombies — with a very bizarre ad.

See more…


Obama Postpones Ohio Visit for Wisconsin Instead

President Obama will campaign in Wisconsin on Thursday, a day after his first debate with Mitt Romney “and amid polls showing him ahead in the state but perhaps not a lock,” the Chippewa Herald reports.

“Opponents characterized his second Wisconsin appearance in two weeks as a sign of a worried campaign. Others think he probably just wants to lap up some lefty love — and draw an easy crowd — following the high-stakes debate… The Obama campaign is postponing a trip to Columbus, Ohio, to make the trip to Madison.”


Republicans End Swing State Voter Sign-Ups

The RNC “ended efforts to sign up new voters before the deadline in key states for the presidential race because of questions raised over registration applications tied to the party,” Bloomberg reports.

“Republican parties in Florida, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina and Virginia — all states that both campaigns view as competitive — fired Glen Allen, Virginia-based Strategic Allied Consulting, the company in charge of registrations… The national committee also canceled its contract with the company, its only vendor signing up new voters… The five states have registration deadlines from Oct. 6 to Oct. 15.”


Perot Not Making an Endorsement

Twenty years from the day he shook up the 1992 presidential race with warnings of economic doom, Ross Perot tells USA Today that he feels vindicated — though he’s not happy about it.

He’s not making an endorsement in the presidential race: “Nobody that’s running really talks about it, about what we have to do and why we have to do it. They would prefer not to have it discussed.”

Expect to hear more from Perot in the coming weeks as he promotes his new autobiography, Ross Perot: A Life of Honor, Duty, Commitment, Patriotism.


“Presumed Prostitutes” Attended GOP Fundraiser

Orlando Sentinel: “Delmar Johnson, the state’s star witness in the fraud and theft trial of former Florida Republican Chairman Jim Greer, told attorneys in a sworn statement that he saw a golf cart full of women — he presumed they were prostitutes — at a party fund-raiser in the Bahamas in 2008.”


It’s Not the Economy, Stupid?

BuzzFeed looks at “one of the central mysteries” of the presidential race: “How did we stop focusing on the economy? Because if there was anything everyone — both campaigns, pundits of all stripes, journalists like us — agreed on, it was that the economy would be the central and decisive issue of the presidential election.

Forbes says the real October surprise of the campaign is how the economy slipped away from Mitt Romney as an issue.


Romney Slams Obama on Libya

Mitt Romney hits President Obama in the Wall Street Journal: “Disturbing developments are sweeping across the greater Middle East. In Syria, tens of thousands of innocent people have been slaughtered. In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood has come to power, and the country’s peace treaty with Israel hangs in the balance. In Libya, our ambassador was murdered in a terrorist attack.”

“These developments are not, as President Obama says, mere ‘bumps in the road.’ They are major issues that put our security at risk. Yet amid this upheaval, our country seems to be at the mercy of events rather than shaping them. We’re not moving them in a direction that protects our people or our allies.”

First Read: “If you write a Wall Street Journal op-ed on Libya and the Middle East just two days before the first presidential debate — which is supposed to be on the economy — chances are that you’re signaling that you want the issue to be raised on Wednesday night.”

Politico reports Romney advisers “are split over how broadly and aggressively to attack” Obama on the issue.


Will October Bring a Political Surprise?

ABC News: “The drama of a potential October surprise comes as much with the ticking of the clock toward Election Day as it does with the shrinking of the electoral map. A tight race like this year’s, where the candidates are separated by a few points in battleground states, increases the likelihood that an unexpected event can shape the polls.”


The Parallel Universe Where Romney Leads

Politico: “To talk with any working Republican political operative these days is to hear the same tale of woe: a grim accounting of the past few weeks, a dash of gallows humor and a measure of hope that President Obama is still beatable. Never in question is that Mitt Romney is trailing — the private surveys these strategists see for their down-ballot clients make that clear. The only question is by how much.”

“But hanging up the phone or clicking out of e-mail is to find a parallel universe on the right. On TV, talk radio and especially the Internet is a place where the swing-state polls that show Romney losing are not just inaccurate but part of an intentional plot by the heretofore unknown media-pollster axis to depress Republican voters. In this other world, Romney not only isn’t losing — he’s on the verge of a convincing victory.”


Tight Race Except in the Swing States

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows the presidential race is unmoved from early September, with President Obama leading Mitt Romney by two points among likely voters, 49% to 47%.

But across the swing states, Obama leads among likely voters by a much larger margin, 52% to 41%, paralleling Obama’s advantages in recent Washington Post polls in Florida, Ohio and Virginia.

Also interesting: Voters now think Obama will prevail on November 6 by a 32 point margin, 63% to 31%.

A new Politico/George Washington University poll also shows the race close among likely voters, 49% to 47%.


Quote of the Day

“I hope this doesn’t harm Obama, but if I was from the United States, I’d vote for Obama.”

— Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, quoted by Reuters, who is also running for re-election.


Would Romney be the Most Religious President in History?

Nicholas Lemann: “If elected, Romney, scion of an old, distinguished Mormon family (his ancestors had a direct connection to Joseph Smith and Brigham Young), would arguably be the most actively religious President in American history; he’s been deeply influenced by the Mormon values of personal discipline and business-centric practicality.”

Explore posts in the same categories: Candidates, National, Politics

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