Pollster Says Obama Can’t Win FL, NC and VA

Pollster David Paleologos of Suffolk University told Bill O’Reilly that his organization will not be doing any further polls in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia because he believes President Obama has no chance to win those states.

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Bonus Quote of the Day

“We weren’t geniuses last week and we’re not stupid this week. It’s going to be a tight race. We’ve always said that.”

— An unnamed Obama adviser, in an interview with Mark Halperin, while adding that “we have more routes to win than he does.”


Is Romney’s Bounce Already Fading?

Nate Cohn: “Over the next few days, more surveys will weigh-in on the size of Romney’s post-debate bounce. But it’s important to keep an eye on whether the polls are measuring the peak of Romney’s bounce, which looks like it was around 4 points before the polls with Sunday interviews pointed toward a smaller one, or whether they’re measuring the weekend and later, when there are signs that Romney’s bounce began to fade. Resolving the size of Romney’s bounce and whether it lasted are two important, but separate questions. We’ll need to be careful to track both.”


Obama Will Hold Final Fundraiser

President Obama “will attend his last fundraiser of the 2012 campaign Thursday and then shift into top gear following his disastrous recent debate performance that vaporized his polling lead over challenger Mitt Romney,” The Hill reports.

Sources say the president “will spend the rest of the campaign at swing-state rallies or preparing for the next two debates instead of attending more private fundraisers.”


Quote of the Day

“You have to scratch your head when the president spends the last week talking aboutsaving Big Bird. I actually think we need to have a president who talks about saving the American people and saving good jobs.”

— Mitt Romney, quoted by Politico.


Latest Swing State Polls

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 46% (American Research Group)

Nevada: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Rasmussen)

New Hampshire: Obama 47%, Romney 41% (WMUR)

North Carolina: Romney 50%, Obama 41% (Gravis)

Ohio: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (American Research Group)

Ohio: Obama 45%, Romney 44% (SurveyUSA)

Ohio: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (CNN/ORC)

Pennsylvania: Obama 43%, Romney 40% (Siena)


Australian PM Launches Blistering Attack

Australian prime minister Julia Gillard “played her best hand with a brilliant attack on the Conservative opposition leader, Tony Abbott, accusing him of being sexist and a misogynist,” the Telegraph reports.

Gillard was defending parliamentary Speaker Peter Slipper who resigned “just hours after he survived a motion to sack him for lurid text messages he sent to a former staffer.”

The video is extraordinary.

“Defending the indefensible is a pretty tough job and could still cost her dear. But what she did have was an impressive set of insults to launch at the high and mighty Abbott – which has completely and cleverly shifted the focus of the entire news story ever since.”

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Cuomo Hires High Profile Spokesperson

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) has hired Allison Gollust, former head spokesperson at NBC Universal, as his new communications director, Azi Paybarah reports.

“Gollust may be a more out-front presence than her predecessor, particularly once Cuomo lifts his self-imposed virtual ban on non-New York media in the run-up to 2016. She is replacing Richard Bamberger, a personal-publicity-shy former television producer who is departing for a job in the private sector.”


Congressman Announces His Mother Will Vote for Him

Rep. Sean Duffy (R-WI) touts a major endorsement in a new ad — his own mother. Carol Duffy explains that she’s “a lifelong Democrat” and her Republican son “really had to earn” her vote.

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Obama Ignored Top Aides on Debate Prep

President Obama “did not take his debate preparation seriously, ignored the advice of senior aides and walked off the stage in Denver believing he had got the better of Mitt Romney,” Toby Harnden reports.

A top Democrat “said that Obama’s inner circle was dismayed at the ‘disaster’ that the first presidential debate had turned out to be and believed that the central problem was that the President was so disdainful of Romney that he didn’t believe he needed to engage with him… The Democrat, who is aligned with the Obama campaign and has been an unofficial adviser on occasions, said that David Axelrod, Obama’s chief strategist, was stunned that the President left the stage feeling that he had won the debate.”


DNC Faces Cash Shortfall

The DNC “had more debt than cash on hand when the general election started in September, a troubling fact few people have noticed to this point in the campaign,” theWashington Post reports.

“We already knew that the Republican National Committee had more than 10 times as much cash as the DNC while the party’s were holding their conventions, but a closer look at the DNC’s August report shows it also took out $8 million in loans during that month — which means it had more debt ($11.8 million) than cash on hand ($7.1 million).”


Mood Changer

E.J. Dionne: “Personally, I am suspending judgment about the extent to which the debate helped Romney until we see a full round of polling from Ohio. The first Ohio polls contain positive news for Romney.”

“But his most important achievement cannot be measured by polls. What he did was change the political mood — of the media coverage, and of partisans on both sides. I’ve been in Ohio and Virginia over the past few days, and my utterly unscientific conversations suggest there is still too much talk about the debate for President Obama’s own good.”

“Moods matter because they shape decisions. Going into the debate, Romney looked like a loser. The coverage reflected that. Republican comments (usually off-the-record) reflected that. The rumors reflected that… All that has stopped. Obama supporters still don’t expect him to lose, but they are fidgety and unhappy.”


Do Debates Still Not Matter?

David Frum: “Political science proclaims, ‘debates don’t matter.’ After this election, we may need to retire a lot of political science.”


Latest National Polls

Here are the most recent national polls, updated as needed:

DailyKos/SEIU/Public Policy Polling: Romney 49%, Obama 47%

Gallup: Romney 49%, Obama 47%

American Research Group: Romney 48%, Obama 47%

Rasmussen: Obama 48%, Romney 48%

Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 45%, Romney 45%

Washington Times/Zogby: Obama 45%, Romney 45%


Mixed Polling in Massachusetts Senate Race

A new WBUR poll in Massachusetts finds Sen. Scott Brown (R) edging challenger Elizabeth Warren (D) by four points, 47% to 43%.

A new Western New England University poll finds Warren with a five point lead, 50% to 45%.

A new University of Massachusetts poll finds Warren with a two point lead, 48% to 46%.


All Eyes on Ohio

First Read: “More than a week ago, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie predicted on Meet the Press that the entire narrative of the presidential contest would change after the first debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney. And White House senior adviser David Plouffe responded to Christie’s pronouncement this way: ‘If it’s going to fundamentally change, that means in seven or 10 days from now you’ll see states like Ohio tied, states like Iowa tied. Because that’s what really matters here.'”

“After some of the first polls since that debate (including Pew), Christie — who campaigns with Romney today — looks pretty prescient. But the point Plouffe made is the important development to watch in the coming days. Will the polling out of Ohio and Iowa, especially the ones conducted a few days after the debate, show a dramatically different race? Or will they show, despite some tightening, that Obama still holds the advantage on those states? If Ohio is in Obama’s column, it is VERY difficult for Romney to get to 270 electoral votes; he can do it without Ohio, but it’s hard. We’ll find out later this week where things stand in the Buckeye State.”

Meanwhile, the New York Times writes that Romney is making a big push in Ohio over the next couple of days.


Popularity High for Romney – and Obama

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds Mitt Romney with his highest personal popularity of the election campaign — but not by enough to lift his head above water, nor to surpass President Obama, who reached his own best favorability rating of the season.

Romney is now seen favorably by 47% of registered voters overall, unfavorably by 51%; Obama’s rating is better, 55% to 44%.

Amy Walter: “The good news for Romney: He’s seen a boost in his favorability ratings. The bad news: More still see him unfavorably than favorably. There have only been four presidential candidates in recent history who were underwater in favorability, at least briefly. All lost. John Kerry and Jimmy Carter in September, Walter Mondale, George H.W. Bush in October.”


Did Obama Just Blow the Election?

Andrew Sullivan: “The Pew poll is devastating, just devastating. Before the debate, Obama had a 51 – 43 lead; now, Romney has a 49 – 45 lead. That’s a simply unprecedented reversal for a candidate in October. Before Obama had leads on every policy issue and personal characteristic; now Romney leads in almost all of them. Obama’s performance gave Romney a 12 point swing! I repeat: a 12 point swing. Romney’s favorables are above Obama’s now…”

“I’ve never seen a candidate self-destruct for no external reason this late in a campaign before… I’m trying to see a silver lining. But when a president self-immolates on live TV, and his opponent shines with lies and smiles, and a record number of people watch, it’s hard to see how a president and his party recover. I’m not giving up. If the lies and propaganda of the last four years work even after Obama had managed to fight back solidly against them to get a clear and solid lead in critical states, then reality-based government is over in this country again. We’re back to Bush-Cheney, but more extreme. We have to find a way to avoid that. Much, much more than Obama’s vanity is at stake.”


Where Are the Most Expensive Electoral Votes?

Bloomberg TV has an interesting piece on the relative cost of electoral votes for the presidential campaigns.


Family Rebellion Shakes Up Romney Campaign

Politico reports a “family intervention” just before the first presidential debate chnaged things up dramatically inside the Romney campaign.

“The family pushed for a new message, putting an emphasis on a softer and more moderate image for the GOP nominee — a ‘let Mitt be Mitt’ approach they believed more accurately reflected the looser, generous and more approachable man they knew. Chief strategist Stuart Stevens — whom the family held responsible for allowing Romney’s personal side to be obscured by an anti-Obama economic message — has seen his once wide-ranging portfolio ‘fenced in’ to mainly the debates, and the television advertising that is his primary expertise, according to campaign officials. Tagg Romney, channeling his mother’s wishes, is taking a much more active role in how the campaign is run.”

“The family rebellion, long building despite Mitt Romney’s initial reluctance to change, reached a climax in September, amid mounting evidence that the status quo was doomed to failure. The course correction came after internal polls showed him losing nearly every swing state and a loud chorus of second-guessing among prominent conservatives.”


Taking on Sesame Street

A new Obama ad mocks Mitt Romney for getting tough on Big Bird. The spot is running nationally.

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Why Harry Reid Hates Mitt Romney

BuzzFeed: “Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s scathing attacks on everything from Mitt Romney’s personal integrity to his devotion to his faith won’t be going away for one simple reason, people close to the Democrat say: Reid personally, deeply loathes Mitt Romney.”

“Reid, a fellow Mormon and one-time boxer who has never been known as much of an orator, has emerged unexpectedly this year as the Democrats’ most effective attack dog, doing particular damage to Romney with questions and innuendo about his personal tax returns. With the election approaching fast, the Nevada senator seems to be looking for new excuses to throw a right hook.”

Jon Ralston: “The piece quotes someone as saying no one put Reid up to his public outbursts, inlcuding his repeated pressing of Romney on his taxes. That’s not only true, but I understand some of the Obama folks at times have wondered if Reid has gone too far.”

Explore posts in the same categories: Candidates, National, Politics

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