POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 10/24
The latest Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll finds President Obama moving slightly ahead of Mitt Romney, 47% to 46%.
However, Obama “maintains a larger advantage in the state-by-state battle that will determine the outcome of the election. Ipsos projects that Obama holds an edge in the most hotly contested states, including Florida, Virginia and Ohio, and is likely to win by a relatively comfortable margin of 322 electoral votes to 206 electoral votes.”
A new Pew Research poll finds that 63% of the public says the presidential campaign is interesting, while 28% say it is dull. Last month, 53% found the campaign interesting.
From January through June, majorities said the campaign was dull, and no more than about four-in-ten found it interesting.
Nate Silver: “Unlikely does not equal impossible, but Ohio is central enough in the electoral math that it now seems to matter as much as the other 49 states put together. I am not sure whether I should be congratulating you or consoling you if you happen to be reading this in Toledo.”
Donald Trump told Fox News that he’ll reveal “very big” news about President Obama by Wednesday but declined to give any hints about his plan.
Said Trump: “Something very, very big concerning the president of the United States. It’s going to be very big. I know one thing — you will cover it in a very big fashion.”
“Anybody who thinks those states are in the bag is half in the bag themselves.”
— Obama adviser David Axelrod, quoted by Greg Sargent, about Mitt Romney locking up North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida.
He also noted, “We have added millions to TV spending in each of these states. We are doubling down.”
John Ellis: “The great story of this election is Obama’s collapsing support among non-Latino whites. Nowhere is this collapse more….complete than in the Southern states. That downdraft has taken North Carolina off the table and, I think, dooms Obama’s efforts in Virginia and in Gold Coast and I-40 Florida. Those three states all lean Romney in my view…”
“I’m assuming that Obama runs at 36-37% among non-Latino white voters (75% of the total vote, in all likelihood). That puts him at 27-28% of the total vote. If he does exactly as well as he did last time among non-white voters, he adds 21% to his national vote total. And he falls short of a majority.”
“So it may be that we end up with a Romney win nationally and an Obama win in the Electoral College.”
Jonathan Chait: “In recent days, the vibe emanating from Mitt Romney’s campaign has grown downright giddy. Despite a lack of any evident positive momentum over the last week — indeed, in the face of a slight decline from its post-Denver high — the Romney camp is suddenly bursting with talk that it will not only win but win handily. (‘We’re going to win,’ said one of the former Massachusetts governor’s closest advisers. ‘Seriously, 305 electoral votes.'”
“This is a bluff. Romney is carefully attempting to project an atmosphere of momentum, in the hopes of winning positive media coverage and, thus, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
Charlie Cook: “Not all of the states in this Toss-Up column are equal. Most private polls show Romney with low single-digit leads in North Carolina and Virginia. For the sake of argument, let’s give Romney both states, adding 28 additional electoral votes to the 191 that Romney already led in, for a total of 219–51 short of a victory.”
“At the same time, Obama has a lead in Nevada that is wider than any advantage that Romney has in North Carolina and Virginia, so let’s add the Silver State’s six electoral votes to the Obama 237, bringing his total to 243, 27 short of 270.”
“That leaves six remaining states — Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18), and Wisconsin (10) — with a total of 76; Obama needs 27 of the 76 while Romney needs 51. But the challenge for Romney isn’t just that he needs to win two-thirds of the “true” Toss-Up state electoral votes. It’s that in five of the six (Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Wisconsin) Obama is still leading in most polling, particularly the last two, while in Florida, it seems awfully close to dead even. If Obama carries Ohio and Wisconsin, where he is ahead in most polling, he gets the 270 with one electoral vote to spare, so Romney could sweep Colorado, Florida, Iowa, and New Hampshire and still come up short. No matter how you cut it, Ohio is the pivotal state, and it isn’t just the history of having gone with every winner from 1964 on and with no Republican ever capturing the White House without it.”
Here are the latest polls from the battleground:
Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Mellman)
Nevada: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (American Research Group)
New Hampshire: Romney 49%, Obama 47% (American Research Group)
A BBC World Service poll in 21 countries finds sharply higher overseas approval ratings for President Obama than Mitt Romney, 50% to 9%.
Only Pakistan’s respondents said they would prefer to see Romney win November’s election.
President Obama put out a 60-second ad in the seven states his campaign thinks will decide the election: Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, Florida and Wisconsin.
Mark Halperin: “As consultants of both parties will tell you, convincing voters a candidate has a plan is far more important than the details of said plan. Romney has made some progress on this front — now it is the President’s turn.”
“The two presidential campaigns are sounding sharply different notes about how they can get to 270 electoral votes, but beneath the post-debate bravado from both sides there is a rough consensus about the shape of the race in its final two weeks,” Politico reports.
“The main battlegrounds: Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, Florida and Wisconsin. The late inclusion of Wisconsin on this list reflects a bet by Romney — buoyed by some polls showing an opportunity for him there — that he can turn a state that has not voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1984.”
“Republicans are genuinely intrigued by the prospect of a strike in Pennsylvania and… are considering going up on TV there outside of the expensive Philadelphia market. But what Romney officials worry about, both in Pennsylvania and Michigan, is that if they put some cash down or use precious hours to send their candidate there Obama will respond by crushing their offensive with a big ad buy of his own.”
“Jesus did not have a campaign staff. And he had the most successful campaign in human history.”
— Tennessee U.S. Senate candidate Mark Clayton (D), quoted by the Washington Post, in an article that says he “may be America’s worst candidate.”
Associated Press: “Already four million ballots have been cast in early voting in more than two dozen states.”
A CNN instant poll of registered voters found President Obama won, 48% to 40%. A CBS News poll of undecided voters favored Obama, 53% to 23%. A Public Policy Polling surveyof swing state voters also came out in favor of the president, 53% to 42%.
I thought Obama was the winner hands down.
Andrew Sullivan: “For Romney, he made no massive mistakes. No Gerald Ford moments. And since the momentum of this race is now his, if now faltering a little, a defeat on points on foreign policy will be an acceptable result. But this was Obama’s debate; and he reminded me again of how extraordinarily lucky this country has been to have had him at the helm in this new millennium.”
Marc Ambinder: “Romney was betting that he did not need to take risks, and stands a better shot at winning the election the more people associate him with the economy. Deciding to let Obama once again be the aggressor carries real risks, because of the large audience, and because the contrasts in tone between the two candidates could be large enough that some voters who initially thought Romney crossed the credibility threshold might have second thoughts.”
Greg Sargent: “Tonight, America was introduced to Peacenik Mitt — and watched him take a pummeling. I don’t know how much this will impact the overall dynamic of the race — it may not matter much at all — but it’s hard to see this as a good night for Romney.”
Josh Marshall: “The first half hour was a draw, though President Obama scored by default when Romney either didn’t or couldn’t attack on Libya. After that though Romney began to falter as Obama became more direct, organized and declarative. Romney seemed increasingly lost. Obama seemed comfortable, happy. The visuals told the story.”
Chris Cillizza: “Obama controlled the third presidential debate in a way not all that dissimilar from the way Romney controlled the first one. Obama clearly came loaded for bear, attacking Romney from the jump for a lack of clarity when it came to his vision (or lack thereof) on foreign policy.”
Joe Klein: “President Obama won the foreign policy debate, cleanly and decisively, on both style and substance. It was as clear a victory as Mitt Romney’s in the first debate. And Romney lost in similar fashion: he seemed nervous, scattered, unconvincing — and he practiced unilateral disarmament, agreeing with Obama hither and yon … on Iraq (as opposed to two weeks ago), on Afghanistan (as opposed to interviews he’s given this fall), on Libya and Syria and Iran. He didn’t have a single creative or elegantly stated foreign policy thought and, indeed, seemed foolish at times.”Explore posts in the same categories: Candidates, National, Politics