POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 10/29
Think Progress says the ad contains “four myths.”
Andrew Sullivan notes that if Virginia, Florida and North Carolina flip back to the GOP from President Obama this November, Mitt Romney will have won every state in the old Confederacy.
“I think America is currently in a Cold Civil War. The parties, of course, have switched sides since the 1964 Civil Rights Act. The party of the Union and Lincoln is now the Democratic party. The party of the Confederacy is now the GOP. And racial polarization is at record levels, with whites entirely responsible for reversing Obama’s 2008 inroads into the old Confederacy in three Southern states. You only have to look at the electoral map in 1992 and 1996, when Clinton won, to see how the consolidation of a Confederacy-based GOP and a Union-based Democratic party has intensified – and now even more under a black president from, ahem, Illinois.”
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:
Florida: Romney 47%, Obama 47% (Pharos)
Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (Public Policy Polling)
Ohio: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)
Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Cincinnati Enquirer)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Gravis)
Minnesota: Obama 47%, Romney 44% (Minneapolis Star Tribune)
New Hampshire: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)
Pennsylvania: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Pharos)
Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Priorities USA Action)
Mark Blumenthal: “The overall standings produced by the aggregation of all of the public polls in the battleground states have been essentially unchanged for nearly three weeks. Although the margins have closed since the first debate and remain very close, Obama holds advantages of 2 percentage points or better in four states — Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin — that would combine with those favoring him by larger margins to give him 277 electoral votes, 7 more than needed for victory.”
Washington Post: “President Obama remains at least an even bet to win reelection. Democrats are favored to hold on to the Senate — an outcome few prognosticators envisioned at the beginning of the year. And yet, with a little more than a week to go, the party holds almost no chance of winning back the House.”
“Analysts cite several factors why the Democrats haven’t been able to take advantage. First was a redistricting process that made some Republicans virtually impervious to a challenge and re-election more difficult for about 10 Democrats. A few Democratic incumbents have stumbled in their first competitive races in years. And Republicans have leveraged their majority into a fund-raising operation that has out-muscled the Democrats.”
Nate Silver looks at the polling average in Ohio — made up of roughly a dozen polling firms who have surveyed the state over the past 10 days — and notes it shows President Obama with a 2.4 percentage point lead over Mitt Romney.
“There are no precedents in the database for a candidate losing with a two- or three-point lead in a state when the polling volume was that rich… It is misinformed to refer to Ohio as a toss-up. Mr. Obama is the favorite there, and because of Ohio’s central position in the Electoral College, he is therefore the overall favorite in the election.”
The New York Times ranks the 28 presidential terms since 1900 on the performance of the Dow Jones industrial average — the only major stock index with a history that long — during each presidential term, and on what happened in the election that followed it.
“When the Dow has risen more than 5 percent a year, the incumbent party has retained the White House in 11 elections and lost it in only three elections. When the market fell, or rose at a rate slower than 5 percent, the incumbent party has lost the White House in eight of 13 elections.”
Sheldon Adelson, “among those whose contributions are disclosed, is far and away the largest donor to independent political efforts in both the 2012 election and in any single election in modern history,” the Huffington Post reports.
“The casino billionaire, along with members of his family, has given $54.44 million to super PACs to help elect a variety of Republican candidates, from Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney on down to a House of Representatives race in New Jersey.”
A new AP Poll finds racial attitudes have not improved in the four years since President Obama’s election “as a slight majority of Americans now express prejudice toward blacks whether they recognize those feelings or not.”
“In all, 51 percent of Americans now express explicit anti-black attitudes, compared with 48 percent in a similar 2008 survey. When measured by an implicit racial attitudes test, the number of Americans with anti-black sentiments jumped to 56 percent, up from 49 percent during the last presidential election. In both tests, the share of Americans expressing pro-black attitudes fell.”
Andrew Sullivan: “Close to 80 percent of Republican voters expressed ‘explicit racism.’ Maybe that’s why they are comfortable with a candidate from a church whose theology remains based on white supremacy and that barred African-Americans from full membership as recently as 1978.”
Greg Sargent runs through the latest polling averages and finds President Obama leading in Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Iowa while Mitt Romney leads in Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. The race is essentially tied in Colorado and New Hampshire.
“For the sake of argument, let’s give the tied states to Romney. Here’s the basic state of things: If you give Romney all the states where he is leading or tied in the averages — Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, New Hampshire — he is still short of 270. Meanwhile, if you give Obama just the states where he leads in the averages, he wins reelection.”
The Week looks at whether Romney’s “momentum” is actually an illusion conjured by his campaign.
John Avlon compiles a list of 89 anti-Obama books that make outrageous and false claims about the president.
“We will look back on birtherism and some of the other strange conspiracy theories that have clustered around him as, at the very least, vestigial remnants of racism. The sheer tonnage of hate and lies directed his way in the White House is stunning and it will seem somewhere between stupid, silly, and sad in the future.”
While President Obama’s average lead in Ohio is just 2.3 points, Mitt Romney doesn’t lead in a single poll. In Nevada, Obama’s edge is 2.5 points and Romney has led in just one poll this entire year. In Wisconsin, Romney trails by just 2.3 points but hasn’t led in a single poll since August.
Harry Enten notes that “in only one in 150 of the state contests in the last three presidential elections was there an instance of a candidate winning a state where he didn’t hold the edge in at least a single poll in the closing weeks of the campaign.”
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