POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 11/5

How You Know You’re Going to Lose

Matthew Dowd told ABC News that every time “you feel a losing campaign, these three things happen”:

“The first thing happens is, don’t believe — the public polls are wrong. That’s the first sign of a campaign that’s about to lose. The second thing, we’re going to change the nature of the electorate, and you’re not seeing it reflected in the polls. And the third thing is, the only poll that counts is Election Day. When you hear those things, you know you’re about to lose.”

 

Bonus Quote of the Day

“The quality of these state level polls is questionable.”

— Karl Rove, in an interview on Fox News.

 

Electoral Projections from Final Polls

Dave Wissing notes that if final polls from The Economist/YouGov are correct, President Obama will win 303 electoral votes.

The final Reuters/Ipsos polls suggest Obama will win 294 electoral votes.

The final Public Policy Polling surveys point to an Obama landslide of 332 electoral votes

 

Ryan Says Obama Threatens Judeo-Christian Values

Paul Ryan told a group of Evangelical Christians that President Obama’s second term plans threaten Judeo-Christian values — “a dramatic charge aimed at the Republican base, and delivered during a conference call that did not appear on his public schedule,” Zeke Miller reports.

 

How to Know Who Won the Election

The New York Times counts 512 paths to the White House — 431 ways for President Obama to win, 76 ways for Mitt Romney to prevail and 5 ties.

BuzzFeed condenses it all down to one handy chart, sorted by poll closing times. It’s actually pretty simple.

 

Latest Swing State Polls

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (YouGov)

Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Florida: Romney 49%, Obama 47% (Zogby)

Florida: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (YouGov)

Florida: Obama 46%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Iowa: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (YouGov)

Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Public Policy Polling)

Michigan: Romney 47%, Obama 46% (Foster McCollum)

Michigan: Obama 51%, Romney 44% (YouGov)

Nevada: Obama 49%, Romney 45% (YouGov)

New Hampshire: Obama 47%, Romney 43% (YouGov)

New Hampshire: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Public Policy Polling)

New Hampshire: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (New England College)

North Carolina: Romney 49%, Obama 47% (YouGov)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Columbus Dispatch)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 42% (Zogby)

Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (YouGov)

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 44% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Ohio: Obama 52%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)

Pennsylvania: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Susquehanna)

Pennsylvania: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Morning Call)

Pennsylvania: Obama 52%, Romney 44% (YouGov)

Virginia: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (Zogby)

Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (YouGov)

Virginia: Obama 47%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Virginia: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)

Wisconsin: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (YouGov)

 

Obama Gains in the Swing States

The final USA Today/Gallup Poll of swing states finds voters “have become as enthusiastic and engaged in the 2012 presidential election as they were in the historic contest four years ago.”

President Obama and Mitt Romney are tied in these battleground states, 48% to 48%. However, the results indicate a surge for Obama as he’s closed a four-point deficit from early October.

Also important: “Most of the interviews were completed before Hurricane Sandy hit, and the president’s disaster response may have bolstered his standing a bit since then.”

For more on swing states, see our state poll round up for today.

 

Florida County Overwhelmed by Early Voters

The Miami Herald reports an attempt by the Miami-Dade elections department to let more people vote early Sunday “devolved into chaos after the department was overwhelmed with voters.”

 

Early Voting May Doom Romney in Nevada

Jon Ralston: “I know the Romney folks and some RNC operatives believe they can still win, despite trailing by nearly 50,000 votes in early voting. But they need everything to break right — President Obama hemorrhages Democrats and independents vote in huge numbers for Romney, two things I do not see happening. It would be very difficult for Obama to lose Nevada, especially because I think more than two-thirds of the vote is in, so whatever turnout advantage the GOP has on Tuesday won’t be enough. Obama, 50 percent; Romney, 46 percent; others and ‘none of the above,’ 4 percent.”

 

Obama Gains in Final Days

The final Pew Research survey finds President Obama has edged ahead of Mitt Romney in the final days of the presidential campaign, 48% to 45%.

“The survey finds that Obama maintains his modest lead when the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account. Our final estimate of the national popular vote is Obama 50% and Romney 47%, when the undecided vote is allocated between the two candidates based on several indicators and opinions.”

The last NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey shows Obama moved ahead by one point, 48% to 47%.

The last YouGov survey has Obama leading by two points, 49% to 47%.

The Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll finds Obama up by one point, 48% to 47%, while theWashington Post/ABC News tracker finds Obama up 49% to 48%.

Meanwhile, the last Politico/GWU poll and Rasmussen tracker both find the race tied, though both earlier found Romney leading.The final CNN/ORC poll also shows a tie race.

 

The GOP’s Senate Problem

Politico: “The presidential race sucks up all the attention and rightly so. But the rise of anti-establishment power is killing Republican chances of winning control of the Senate. In two consecutive elections, the party had a clear shot at a majority and blew it — blew it because the party bosses in Washington have lost control over nominating contests in swing states, and seem impotent in engineering the selection of the most electable candidates.”

“It’s mathematically possible for Republicans to pull out the majority – but it’s just as mathematically possible they don’t pick up a single seat. And a big reason has nothing to do with opportunity; it’s all about the candidates.”

 

Romney Hopes Tied to Different Turnout Model

Mark Halperin notes the public polls are still “mostly consistent with what the Obama campaign claims — that the President’s small but durable leads are holding in enough places to checkmate Romney and block him from 270. Much of the press agrees with that conventional wisdom, but there is enough confusion and uncertainty that Romney has achieved an important milestone: he enters the final days cast in the media as tied or just a little bit behind, not a long shot.”

“Boston is telling its allies what it is telling reporters: their polling, modeling a different electorate, shows a Romney win, including in Ohio.”

 

McCaskill Maintains Edge in Missouri

A final Public Policy Polling poll in Missouri finds Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) holding on to a narrow lead over Rep. Todd Akin (R) for U.S. Senate, 48% to 44%.

Key findings: “Akin’s image isn’t getting any better. He now has a 29% favorability rating with 56% of voters rating him unfavorably, the worst numbers we’ve found for him to date. Nevertheless Republicans are starting to unify around him a little bit more as the election approaches: he’s gone from getting 74% of his party vote on our last poll to now 79%.”

 

Election Night Guide to the Swing States

Harry Enten has a fantastic guide to the 8 key swing states, complete with past results, final polling averages and poll closing times.

The Economist also has a good roundup.

 

Quote of the Day

“Folks I want to remind you, this is the end of daylight savings time tonight. It’s Mitt Romney’s favorite time of the year because he gets to turn the clock back.”

— Joe Biden, quoted by the New York Times, at a rally in Colorado.

 

Are Indies Coming Back to Obama?

Some pollsters have started to notice that independent voters, who until recently were leaning toward Mitt Romney, may be trickling back toward President Obama with just days until the election.

Zogby poll finds Obama has picked up five points among independents, perhaps because of how he has handled the federal response to Hurricane Sandy. Meanwhile the latest national Public Policy Polling tracking poll shows Obama turning a longtime disadvantage with independents into a 49% to 44% advantage. Furthermore, a new national ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll shows Obama and Romney deadlocked with independents, at 46% each, matching Obama’s best showing among that group in that survey and coming after Romney had reached a high of 58% just a week and a half earlier.

Finally, the Politico/GWU tracking poll finds the two men essentially tied with independents just a week after Romney held a double-digit lead with them.

 

For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Biased

Nate Silver finds President Obama with an 84% chance to win the presidential election and that the barrage of swing state polls showing him leading Mitt Romney represents “powerful evidence against the idea that the race is a ‘tossup.’ A tossup race isn’t likely to produce 19 leads for one candidate and one for the other — any more than a fair coin is likely to come up heads 19 times and tails just once in 20 tosses. (The probability of a fair coin doing so is about 1 chance in 50,000.)”

“Instead, Mr. Romney will have to hope that the coin isn’t fair, and instead has been weighted to Mr. Obama’s advantage. In other words, he’ll have to hope that the polls have been biased in Mr. Obama’s favor… They could be biased. Based on the historical reliability of polls, we put the chance that they will be biased enough to elect Mr. Romney at 16%.”

 

Warren Maintains Lead Over Brown

A new Western New England University poll in Massachusetts finds Elizabeth Warren (D) with a four point lead over Sen. Scott Brown (R) in their race for U.S. Senate, 50% to 46%.

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Warren ahead 52% to 46%.

 

Bloomberg Takes on the NRA

As New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg nears his final year as mayor, National Journalreports he is “laying the groundwork to become a one-man counterweight to one of the nation’s most powerful lobbies: the National Rifle Association.”

“In recent days, Bloomberg has used his massive wealth to wade into five House races in five different states, on behalf of candidates on both sides of the aisle. The common thread: Bloomberg is either backing candidates how are supportive of gun control measures, or trying to oust those who aren’t, in his view. The late injection of millions in television ads and mailers has dramatically reshaped some of the contests, including one in California where Bloomberg’s last-minute spending spree amounts to more than double what both candidates themselves have spent — combined.”

 

Obama Readies Ground Game

The Obama campaign is out with a memo detailing how it will execute its long planned ground game:

“This morning, as our volunteer Neighborhood Team Leaders opened 5,117 get-out-the-vote (GOTV) staging locations in the battleground states that will decide this election, they began to execute the final phase of a ground game unlike any American politics has ever seen. These staging locations are even more localized versions of our field offices – set up in supporters’ homes, businesses or any area that can serve as a central hub for a team’s GOTV activities in the final days.”

“From these hyper-local Obama hubs, volunteers have signed up for 698,799 shifts to get out the vote over the final four days of this campaign, a number that grows by the minute as organizers continue assigning supporters who have expressed an interest in volunteering. These volunteerled GOTV staging locations embody what this campaign has been all about since we started organizing for change in 2007. The Neighborhood Team Leaders who are running our get-outthe-vote operation have been working in these neighborhoods for months, if not years.”

 

Obama Pulls Ahead Nationally

The latest Public Policy Polling tracking poll shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney by three points nationally among likely voters, 50% to 47%.

Key finding: “This is the first time either candidate has led by more than 2 points in the three weeks we’ve been doing this survey. Obama has led in 4 individual days of polling in a row since Wednesday, suggesting that he may be getting a bounce based on his leadership during Hurricane Sandy.”

 

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