POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 11/13
First Read: “For all the talk about how Mitt Romney and the Republicans lost when it came to demographics, the turnout, and the tactics, the exit polls also show that they lost when it came to the issues.”
“For years, the GOP has branded itself as the party that supports low taxes (especially for the wealthy) and opposes abortion and gay marriage. But according to the exit polls from last week’s presidential election, a combined 60% said that tax rates should increase either for everyone or for those making more than $250,000. Just 35% said the tax rates shouldn’t increase for anyone.”
“What’s more, 59% said that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. And by a 49%-to-46% margin, voters said that their states should legally recognize same-sex marriage.”
CBS News reports “it is now becoming clear just how lopsided President Obama’s victory was in some cities: in dozens of urban precincts, Mitt Romney earned literally zero votes.”
“The Phildadelphia Inquirer reported today that, in 59 precincts in inner-city Philadelphia, the GOP nominee received not a single vote. And according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, nine precincts in Cleveland returned zero Romney votes.”
“At first blush, it seems almost impossible: how, even in some of the most heavily Democratic strongholds in the country, could a major party’s presidential candidate fail to earn even one vote?”
The latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll finds Republicans and Democrats don’t agree on who might be the strongest Republican to run for president in 2016, but both groups look first to Florida.
GOP insiders: Marco Rubio 40%, Jeb Bush 27%, Paul Ryan 9%, Rick Santorum 9%, Chris Christie 8%
Democratic insiders: Jeb Bush 47%, Chris Christie 28%, Marco Rubio 13%
Anti-tax advocate Grover Norquist gave CBS News an interesting theory as to why President Obama won the presidential election.
Said Norquist: “The president was committed; elected on the basis that he was not Romney and Romney was a poopy head and you should vote against Romney and he won by two points. But he didn’t make the case that we should have higher taxes and higher spending, he kind of sounded like the opposite.”
The Week looks at the three most popular conspiracy theories explaining why CIA Director David Petraeus resigned in the wake of an extramarital affair.
“If Republicans do not do better in the Hispanic community, in a few short years Republicans will no longer be the majority party in our state.”
— Sen.-elect Ted Cruz (R-TX), in an interview with the Ryan Lizza.
Howard Kurtz: “David Petraeus had another love affair long before the one that cost him his job running the CIA. It was with the press.”
“The retired general’s skillful courtship of journalists brought him a career’s worth of favorable headlines and has, to a remarkable degree, softened the coverage of his fall from grace. Petraeus accomplished this in part by granting reporters access–though none quite as extraordinary as that accorded his biographer, Paula Broadwell, who several news organizations have identified as Other Woman in the extramarital affair he has acknowledged.”
Robert Jeffress, a Texas megachurch pastor, said that President Obama’s re-election victory would lead to the rise of the Antichrist, the Christian Post reports.
Said Jeffress: “I want you to hear me tonight, I am not saying that President Obama is the Antichrist, I am not saying that at all. One reason I know he’s not the Antichrist is the Antichrist is going to have much higher poll numbers when he comes.”
He added: “But what I am saying is this: the course he is choosing to lead our nation is paving the way for the future reign of the Antichrist.”
Wonk Wire sees signs the GOP might be willing to bargain in order to avoid going over the “fiscal cliff.”
Walter Shapiro: “Dating back to Woodrow Wilson’s 1919 failure to bring the United States into the League of Nations, second presidential terms have almost always been disappointing and sad. There have been successes: Ronald Reagan passing tax reform in 1986 and Bill Clinton balancing the budget. But far more common are thwarted ambitions, scandal and a slow slide towards political irrelevance.”
First Read: “Romney actually won the independent vote, 50%-45%. So now twice in the last three elections — in 2004 and 2012 — the winner has lost the indie vote. What does this mean? Well, party ID appears to matter much more: In 2004, it was even; in 2008, it was D+7; and last week, it was D+6. Also, many polls have different ways of deciding who is an ‘independent’; some pollsters include ‘lean Dems and lean GOPers’ in their independent number which lately has given the indie number a GOP skew. If you move the leaners into their own parties, then you get a more pure indie subgroup (and you also realize how really small of a subgroup it is).”
Rasmussen Reports, which had Mitt Romney leading President Obama on the final day of the presidential campaign and picked the winner in just three of nine swing states, explains:
“A preliminary review indicates that one reason for this is that we underestimated the minority share of the electorate. In 2008, 26% of voters were non-white. We expected that to remain relatively constant. However, in 2012, 28% of voters were non-white. That was exactly the share projected by the Obama campaign. It is not clear at the moment whether minority turnout increased nationally, white turnout decreased, or if it was a combination of both. The increase in minority turnout has a significant impact on the final projections since Romney won nearly 60% of white votes while Obama won an even larger share of the minority vote.”
“Another factor may be related to the generation gap. It is interesting to note that the share of seniors who showed up to vote was down slightly from 2008 while the number of young voters was up slightly.”
NPR says that Erskine Bowles, who co-chaired up the president’s debt reduction commission, is a candidate to replace Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner in President Obama’s second term.
But “a more likely choice might be Jack Lew, the current White House chief of staff and formerly the president’s budget director.”
Wonk Wire: Who should be the next Treasury Secretary?
As President Obama begins budget talks to avoid the fiscal cliff, the New York Times notes he “will not simply hunker down there for weeks of closed-door negotiations as he did in mid-2011, when partisan brinkmanship over raising the nation’s debt limit damaged the economy and his political standing. He will travel beyond the Beltway at times to rally public support for a deficit-cutting accord that mixes tax increases on the wealthy with spending cuts.”
John Heilemann “This is a president unusually focused in the present on what his legacy will be in the future. With Obama’s reelection, one foundational element of that legacy has been secured: the Affordable Care Act, which, had he been defeated, would not only likely have been repealed but retrospectively reduced to one of the causes of his loss. Now, with a second term ahead of him, among Obama’s paramount goals, say his advisers, is to add another glittering trophy to his mantle: at least one more domestic-policy reform tantamount in importance to near-universal health care.”
“The shiniest such prize would be the achievement of a grand bargain on entitlements and tax reform: a bipartisan agreement that would put the nation’s fiscal house in order for years, and maybe decades, to come. The extent to which Obama pines for this was illustrated by his ardent pursuit of such a megadeal in 2011, which ultimately fell apart when House Speaker John Boehner proved unable to move the tea-party faction in his caucus to accept new revenues.”
Jonathan Chait: “Like every president, Obama won for myriad reasons, important and petty. But his reelection was hardly small and hardly devoid of ideas. Indeed, it was entirely about a single idea. The campaign, from beginning to end, was an extended argument about economic class…”
“If there is a single plank in the Democratic platform on which Obama can claim to have won, it is taxing the rich. Obama ignored vast swaths of his agenda, barely mentioning climate change or education reform, but by God did he hammer home the fact that his winning would bring higher taxes on the rich. He raised it so relentlessly that at times it seemed out of proportion even to me, and I wrote a book on the topic. But polls consistently showed the public was on his side.”
“Obama’s goal was to prove to the GOP that their rigid defense of the richest one percent was political poison and to force them to bend. For now, at least, their same monomaniacal refusal to increase any taxes on the rich is leading Republicans to deny any connection between the tax issue and Obama’s victory.”
Politico: “The tension between the profit- and ratings-driven right — call them entertainment-based conservatives — and conservatives focused on ideas (the thinkers) and winning (the operatives) has never been more evident.”
“The latter group worries that too many on the right are credulous about the former.”
“The egghead-hack coalition believes that the entertainment-based conservatives create an atmosphere which enables flawed down-ballot candidates, creates a cartoonish presidential primary, blocks needed policy reforms and generally leave an odor on the party which turns off swing voters.”Explore posts in the same categories: Candidates, National, Politics